Model Output Discussion

[Ben_Cambs]

Who is GP?

Glacier Point, he's an excellent forecaster

[mushymanrob]

Who is GP?

member 'glacier point'.

[dewei]

Newbie question.

UKMO and FAX charts are UK Met Office products. Are they the same model?

Cheers.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I would imagine HP is watching developments across the globe like a hawk.AS IT STANDS Feb isnt looking to inspiring but im sure GP will offer updates as and when he sees it appropriate.

Obviously the models are something we watch and analyse but GP's thoughts go deeper and usually his ideas filter down to the models.

[johnholmes]

latest lrf at the link below

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60173-lrfs-by-jh/page__gopid__1747915&

[Bobby]

Newbie question.

UKMO and FAX charts are UK Met Office products. Are they the same model?

Cheers.

The UKMO is a raw computer model while the FAX Charts are adjusted by human hand, so you get the best of both worlds - the powerful supercomputer output and the experience and insight only a human can have.

Edited January 16, 2010 by Barb-

[karyo]

I would imagine HP is watching developments across the globe like a hawk.AS IT STANDS Feb isnt looking to inspiring but im sure GP will offer updates as and when he sees it appropriate.

Obviously the models are something we watch and analyse but GP's thoughts go deeper and usually his ideas filter down to the models.

HP?

I am sure he will offer updates. I just can't see why the whole of February will be so bad for cold, especially now that the stratosphere is loosing it's cold profile!

Karyo

[Thundery wintry showers]

Glacier Point does a lot of teleconnections-based forecasting, and like all methods of forecasting they are not foolproof- but they're certainly a good way of assessing likely trends and have proved pretty accurate so far this season. I've learnt quite a bit about them this season and think they do look like a promising long-range forecasters' tool for the present and future.

The problem is the same as with forecasting based on general atmospheric circulation- it only takes the atmosphere to do one thing that was slightly different to what was forecast, and it can create a "snowball effect" where the rest of the forecast goes wrong.

But GP has been forecasting a mild (or at least milder) February for some time and it would require something unexpected to happen at the last moment for that forecast to go completely wrong.

[Weather-history]

But GP has been forecasting a mild (or at least milder) February for some time and it would require something unexpected to happen at the last moment for that forecast to go completely wrong.

Last February didn't come off though. The first half was cold but it never really happened the blocking and the intensity of the cold, if I remember correctly that GP had predicted.

Anyway, it is interesting that the Met Office are putting out advisories for Wednesday.

[Tim Bland]

Not often that you see sub 528dam air to be coming in from the west; http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn241.png

My current thinking is that there will be a snow risk on Weds and Fri for Central and Eastern areas then we need to look west / NW for PM type zonality for any wintry precip. If I was in the extreme south or south west then I wouldn't be very optimistic of seeing any snow for the next few weeks.

[Eugene]

Come on GP knows his stuff but to believe he has some godlike ability to forecast weather more than two weeks away is ludicrous, he can be as wrong as joe bloggs, his knowledge doesn't mean he`ll be right for February that is an absurd way of thinking, looks to me like blocking will be back sooner rather than later ready for February.

[karyo]

Last February didn't come off though. The first half was cold but it never really happened the blocking and the intensity of the cold, if I remember correctly that GP had predicted.

Although, I am a fan of GP's work, I agree with what you say! I hope February will be proved his Achilles heel once again!

Karyo

[dewei]

The UKMO is a raw computer model while the FAX Charts are adjusted by human hand, so you get the best of both worlds - the powerful supercomputer output and the experience and insight only a human can have.

Thanks Barb-

[weather eater]

Come on GP knows his stuff but to believe he has some godlike ability to forecast weather more than two weeks away is ludicrous, he can be as wrong as joe bloggs, his knowledge doesn't mean he`ll be right for February that is an absurd way of thinking, looks to me like blocking will be back sooner rather than later ready for February.

Nope he's not godlike and he can be wrong, but he has been pretty good this winter and although an obvious cold weather fan, he does not allow that to get in the way of his objectivity, as some do. I trust his judgement more than Joe B or some of the much vaunted net weather members, however I believe its wise to listen to all sides of a debate before making a judgement and its a fantastic situation we have on NW when we can also hear the views of the likes of JH, SM, BF, Nick F and a host of others, TWS, Nick S, TEITS, IB, and several more who make the model thread a gold mine of weather knowledge.

[igloo]

GP's weather forecast this winter has been very good so far and a lot better than the MET'S shocking forecast at the end of november in any case i dont think his forecast is a total bartlett setup more zonal type weather you cant expect it be be similar to the past 4 weeks can we

[D KARLSON]

Thats an interesting weather warning and implies that the UKMO think the shortwave won't be as far east as progged by the raw UKMO output or even the ECM. It's a tough call as the ridge is extending from the east at the same time as fronts are trying to approach from the west.

In terms of the longer term if the block is not going to influence things you either want it to remain centred far enough north to force lows to track at a more fravourable trajectory, if it sinks south and sticks then that would cause a milder stalemate. I think one variable here is the AO, uncertain how negative this will go but there is also the case for the block remaining to the east and with the AO dipping pressure rising to the ne, the Azores high retrogressing to the middle of the Atlantic and a slow sinking of the trough ese with eventually colder conditions.

Thats a fair assesment but even then we still cant be certain of the actual outcome , i think i pointed out the other day of this idea of the trough running north south and high pressure remaining to the east ,this does seem plausable as it does not appear that the high to our east will give ground anytime soon.

Also worth noting is the high cells forming and merging with the main high over russia this is one veriable that will be very hard to predict and could throw a spanner in the works ,above all it does seem like we will be stuck in nomans land with cold incursions clipping the east and returning polar maritime air getting into the northwest at times.

As for further snowfall thats certainly on the cards and a few surprise snowfalls as the BEEB like to call it and quite a lot of chopping and changing from the models as they will really struggle with the details

[Sheppall]

Afternoon all.London ensembles showing good agreement for the next 6 days.After that a huge spread.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

[La Bise]

Last year's GP predictions of cold weather for late february did not come off because a SSW did not propagate as it should have, could the same kind of incident put a spanner in his prediction work but this time bringing a cold blast rather than his favoured Euro High...?

[Winter Monsoon]

I have found GP and CH to be most informative. Back last year when i was lurking and not registered GP was pretty much spot on and this year he's been uncannily accurate. He mention in november that a cold spell was comming in december..... dont get me wrong everyone on here has taught me alot but to be able to predict a cold spell in november for nerly a month away??

So i have learnt, read the tech discussion thread and the strat thread then look at the models. If it doesnt fit with GP's, CH's or Bricks excellently thought out posts(even i can understand the jist so they must be good posts) then it probably isnt going to happen.

Anyway interesting outputs the past few days. Personally would like the Siberian high to edge this way more, it would probably end up with some settled fine weather but least it will be cold.

Edited January 16, 2010 by Winter Monsoon

[andymusic]

Take a look at this BBC article regarding the relevance of the Meto's long distance forecasting and whether they should continue with these forecasts due to their less than accurate nature - hurting their professional reputation!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm

[johnholmes]

have already posted a comment in the relevant thread which G Plum quoted

[igloo]

Take a look at this BBC article regarding the relevance of the Meto's long distance forecasting and whether they should continue with these forecasts due to their less than accurate nature - hurting their professional reputation!

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8462890.stm

interesting article looks to me if past trends outweigh scientific evidence over the past few years i suspect future long term forecasts will be better the ESA are launching and have already launched weather related satellites and will be somewhat more accurate in the future

[Jason T]

Hello all, Maybe this has already been mentioned but the met office have put an advisory for up to 10cm snow in many areas from wednesday next week..

[andymusic]

GFS 12z is not backing up Meto's warning regarding wednesday with snow at the mo (all could change with this flip flop model mind) - may well still pull the high further west to influence the atlantic low more yet! - Meto must be seeing something on their models/systems to issue such an early warning

[Jayfromcardiff]

GFS 12z is not backing up Meto's warning regarding wednesday with snow at the mo (all could change with this flip flop model mind) - may well still pull the high further west to influence the atlantic low more yet! - Meto must be seeing something on their models/systems to issue such an early warning

They can't even get it right 24 hours away let alone a few days away.