Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

I would say as regards to GP he is having a very good season so far.I do think though especially in winter

some years are easier than others with regard to the dominant atmospheric players such as strong El Nino

or La Nina years. Years which are enso neutral can be a lot more of a challenge with regard to what

teleconnection is the dominant player.

Many Mets were calling for a cold winter stateside and over the UK and Europe (apart from our own Met

which sunk without a trace) and the signals for this were strong.

I personally think we will need to look east and northeast for our weather in February which I believe will

be our coldest winter month, with winter continuing into March.

[Eugene]

Completely different to atlantic spells of years gone by, definately not zonal thats for sure with still strong blocking to our east and low pressure centres being pushed back northwestwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

I certainly see no mild dominance on the horizon with temps average to cool.

Not seriously mild at all, an air frost inland likely infact.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

Hardly wet and windy is it, hardly shows the atlantic becoming powerful at all, looks like becoming blocked again from next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png - Another air frost likely.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Take a look at this BBC article regarding the relevance of the Meto's long distance forecasting and whether they should continue with these forecasts due to their less than accurate nature - hurting their professional reputation!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm

An excellent article from the BBC- credit where it's due- worth a read.

Regarding cool zonal weather it's not uncommon in this kind of battleground setup. With a strong high to the NE and a low stuck to the NW, quite often you get a fair amount of cold air pouring out from east Canada/Alaska into the mid-Atlantic which results in the westerlies not being especially mild.

[andymusic]

F I - GFS is playing around with the trend of a blocking high again and a northerly putting us back in the freeezer for the end of January - something to keep our eyes on right now!

[cj114]

I was just about to post the above. lol

Interesting reading.

[weather eater]

I guess that post is the thoughts of Joe B, it could be interesting if it was in a form that made it easier to read.

[karyo]

A bizarre advisory as the system will be transferring West to East and introducing milder weather. I would expect this to be taken down tomorrow when they examine the latest output.

Longer term, we are clearly heading one way with Low pressure to the NW controlling matters, hopefully it won't be too unsettled away from the North and West.

Ian, do you also see a mild February?

Karyo

[Paul White.]

I guess that post is the thoughts of Joe B, it could be interesting if it was in a form that made it easier to read.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp

Try the link to the site that might be a little better.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp

I am sorry my links are broke and I cant fix them but if people want to read Joe laminate floori blog type that in to your fave search engine I like google lol but other search engines are available

Edit Omg this forum engine believes that Joe Bs sir name is swearing that is the problem of posting his euro blog

Edited January 16, 2010 by paulwhite22

[Mark Bayley]

The GFS isn't to bad tonight. Nothing what we have been used to (snow, sub zero temps) however not above average mild zonal weather. Can't see much in the way of low land snow. So i to would expect that advisory to go (but then i have not checked the UKMO model yet). Some snow to high ground is possible if not likely. For the majority of us its rain at times, temps a little below average with a risk of ground frosts. Colder the further north you go with with the mildest weather reserved for the South/South West. Nothing much to say really! Keep looking north for our next cold spell...

[andymusic]

I saw Joe B's blog today as well - it's a slight backtrack but still going for cold towards the end of jan into feb and beyond - I still think he has a great handle on his long distance forecasts even with the "language" he uses to get his opinions across. I'm still happy at keeping a close eye on his blogs to see if he is able to give us any heads up with any particular weather trends that could well be about to hit us. Some people on these forums have called him a cold ramper - he has been very honest with the slight alterations to any warmer/milder solutions to the weather also - so I disagree with those people in their opinions! - Joe tells it like it is!

[weather eater]

A bizarre advisory as the system will be transferring West to East and introducing milder weather. I would expect this to be taken down tomorrow when they examine the latest output.

Longer term, we are clearly heading one way with Low pressure to the NW controlling matters, hopefully it won't be too unsettled away from the North and West.

I think you may well be right about the snow Ian, however longer term I'm not sure, certainly the LP will be in control Tuesday to Friday after that it does look increasingly like we could get stuck in rather a no-mans land and from the mid term there doesn’t seem to be an identifiable trend at the moment.

[andymusic]

http://www.accuweath...m/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp

Try the link to the site that might be a little better.

http://www.accuweath...m/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp

I am sorry my links are broke and I cant fix them but if people want to read Joe laminate floori blog type that in to your fave search engine I like google lol but other search engines are available

just go to accuweather.com (making sure it's the UK and Ireland area)and click on Joe B's blog from their

[Paul White.]

I think so Karyo, plenty of forcing should eventually see a Euro High in place, probably by the end of this month and that will be a hard to shift pattern.

Even with a negative NAO + AO and a possible strat warming? With these factors in play I would punt for a average feb maybe slightly cooler than 30 year CET

[andymusic]

Even with a negative NAO + AO and a possible strat warming? With these factors in play I would punt for a average feb maybe slightly cooler than 30 year CET

All the signs are there for a slightly colder than average february at the moment - definitely

[Tim Bland]

The GFS isn't to bad tonight. Nothing what we have been used to (snow, sub zero temps) however not above average mild zonal weather. Can't see much in the way of low land snow. So i to would expect that advisory to go (but then i have not checked the UKMO model yet). Some snow to high ground is possible if not likely. For the majority of us its rain at times, temps a little below average with a risk of ground frosts. Colder the further north you go with with the mildest weather reserved for the South/South West. Nothing much to say really! Keep looking north for our next cold spell...

Meto are not going to remove the warning based on the GFS. They have issued the warning as they have viewed all the output (some we don't see) and used their professional judgement. I do believe that the Meto are covering their backsides just as they did yesterday by forecasting snow for the east today. A slight shift in pattern could mean the difference between blizzards and a dry and cold day on Weds.

[Cheese Rice]

GFS 12z is not backing up Meto's warning regarding wednesday with snow at the mo (all could change with this flip flop model mind) - may well still pull the high further west to influence the atlantic low more yet! - Meto must be seeing something on their models/systems to issue such an early warning

I would side with the Meto on this one, they obviously have access to tones of data which probably outshines the GFS in every way. The GFS didn't even hint at anything wintry today but the Meto were forecasting snow to lower levels, which did happen.

[Mark Bayley]

I think so Karyo, plenty of forcing should eventually see a Euro High in place, probably by the end of this month and that will be a hard to shift pattern.

That's what GP seems to be indicating as well. My ideal scenario would be for the high to be situated close or over the UK. At least it would be sunny with overnight frosts. February is still half a month away however most forecasts do seem to be indicating mild. Before hand it stays a little below average with rain and hill snow at times. I have feeling that the next cold spell (if any) is going to come from the North. I don't think many would complain with a mild Feb, especially after what we have experienced so far!

Meto are not going to remove the warning based on the GFS. They have issued the warning as they have viewed all the output (some we don't see) and used their professional judgement. I do believe that the Meto are covering their backsides just as they did yesterday by forecasting snow for the east today. A slight shift in pattern could mean the difference between blizzards and a dry and cold day on Weds.

What i meant was i would expect the meto to remove the warning if the other models showed something similar, i hadn't checked the UKMO model at the time Having checked it i can't see much in the way of lowland snow. Higher ground could see something wintry though. Of course the meto don't just base their forecast on the GFS, who would :lol:

Edited January 16, 2010 by mark bayley

[weather eater]

I saw Joe B's blog today as well - it's a slight backtrack but still going for cold towards the end of jan into feb and beyond - I still think he has a great handle on his long distance forecasts even with the "language" he uses to get his opinions across. I'm still happy at keeping a close eye on his blogs to see if he is able to give us any heads up with any particular weather trends that could well be about to hit us. Some people on these forums have called him a cold ramper - he has been very honest with the slight alterations to any warmer/milder solutions to the weather also - so I disagree with those people in their opinions! - Joe tells it like it is!

I think you will find Andy, is that the problem some of us have with Joe B is that he has called a cold winter for us for the last 5 years, although that's not quite true as this year he called a cold winter for Europe but was unsure as to what extent it would effect us. He does have an engaging style and maybe the winters he got wrong have taught him a thing or two. There's nothing wrong with being a cold ramper as long as objectivity is maintained; most of us are cold weather fans after all. :lol:

[karyo]

I think so Karyo, plenty of forcing should eventually see a Euro High in place, probably by the end of this month and that will be a hard to shift pattern.

Thank you! I'll get ready for the worse and hope for pleasant surprises!

Karyo

[andymusic]

That's what GP seems to be indicating as well. My ideal scenario would be for the high to be situated close or over the UK. At least it would be sunny with overnight frosts. February is still half a month away however most forecasts do seem to be indicating mild. Before hand it stays a little below average with rain and hill snow at times. I have feeling that the next cold spell (if any) is going to come from the North. I don't think many would complain with a mild Feb, especially after what we have experienced so far!

It's been a pretty draining cold spell at that - we could do with a week or two to settle ourselves back into normal living again before/if there is a further nasty outbreak of cold and snowy (bringing the country to a standstill) type of weather again!

[Cheese Rice]

I saw Joe B's blog today as well - it's a slight backtrack but still going for cold towards the end of jan into feb and beyond - I still think he has a great handle on his long distance forecasts even with the "language" he uses to get his opinions across. I'm still happy at keeping a close eye on his blogs to see if he is able to give us any heads up with any particular weather trends that could well be about to hit us. Some people on these forums have called him a cold ramper - he has been very honest with the slight alterations to any warmer/milder solutions to the weather also - so I disagree with those people in their opinions! - Joe tells it like it is!

I agree to some extent, however he did forecast the mother of all cold spells at the end of FEB 09 which never materialised (the models did toy with the idea in FI), and he completely backtracked and acted like it had never been predicted.

Anyway the GFS doesn't look bad in my opinion, yes it's no raging easterly with boat loads of snow, but it's no above average muck either. Temps look slightly below average and snow is a definite risk to all areas at times, as shown by the Meto warnings were not out of the woods yet.

[cj114]

It's been a pretty draining cold spell at that - we could do with a week or two to settle ourselves back into normal living again before/if there is a further nasty outbreak of cold and snowy (bringing the country to a standstill) type of weather again!

Have to agree 100% with that comment. To go outside without looking like Scott of the Antarctic is very nice. As is driving normally again. :lol:

[Snowyowl9]

The cold comes back in,and where snow comes back into the forecast midweek.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just seen the 12z GFS ensembles. A deffinate cooling trend for the last week of Jan. Although seemingly not so good at fine detail, the GFS is good at spotting trends, this one has become more and more pronounced. A new trend emerging IMO

Aaron

Edited January 16, 2010 by CreweCold

[The PIT]

GFS having none of the return of the cold until deep FI with the battle ground remaining to the east of us for now. Temps around average although the GFS goes for low temps which seems a little strange as the 850's seem about the same as Sundays and temps for Sunday are what we expect for the year.

So what I expect is bands of rain pushing east with Snow confined to the highest peaks of Northern England and slightly lower for Scotland plus a bit of wind around in the west and north. Perhaps evaporative cooling may help snow reach lower levels if the rain is heavy enough and a front stalls a little.

Edited January 16, 2010 by The PIT