Model Output Discussion

[MR EXTREMES]

The cold comes back in,and where snow comes back into the forecast midweek.

http://www.wzkarten....ics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wzkarten....ics/Rukm961.gif

well from them charts id laugh at the meto forecast warnings for snow they do not look like snow charts to me.

but for febuary i think its way to early to be shouting mild i think cold will be from a different direction with slightly below average temps mixed with colder interludes i cant see this winter being over without seeing some sort of sudden chage.

but if im honest right now everything is very messy or maybe even stuck.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z is very similar to the 00z gfs but completely different to the 6z, there is nothing strikingly mild about this run, in fact the temps look no better than average in most areas and scotland seems to have the coldest weather and therefore the highest risk of snow (mostly on northern hills), later next week as fronts engage cold continental air there could be a snow event in the northeast and then further on, the north seems to drag in some rPm air at times with a chance of wintry showers followed by a vigorous depression which could have more snow for the north followed by an arctic outbreak again shown in FI. As for the block to the east and northeast, it looks like hanging around for at least another week before being pushed away eastwards.

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

well from them charts id laugh at the meto forecast warnings for snow they do not look like snow charts to me.

but for febuary i think its way to early to be shouting mild i think cold will be from a different direction with slightly below average temps mixed with colder interludes i cant see this winter being over without seeing some sort of sudden chage.

but if im honest right now everything is very messy or maybe even stuck.

Hmmmm, I wouldnt say laugh at the warnings. From what I can see, there will be a strong SE/ESE flow bringing up at the very least some surface air from a very cold continent. Can't really comment until we see the 850's.

[Tim Bland]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

Fax for Tuesday has LP to the SW and 528 dam over Eastern areas. with the trough stalling and moving west. channel low moving moving NE. Warnings are obviously based on their opinion that the Channel Low will deepen and move NE.

GFS not a million miles from this either http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm961.gif.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0

Later in FI the trend continues for cold to return at the end of the month. This is a definite trend now that has support from the Ens so one to watch.

Edited January 16, 2010 by Tim Bland

[MR EXTREMES]

Hmmmm, I wouldnt say laugh at the warnings. From what I can see, there will be a strong SE/ESE flow bringing up at the very least some surface air from a very cold continent. Can't really comment until we see the 850's.

lol i laugh very much at them warnings the charts dont suggest this but i can understand why the meto would be a little worried not to get it wrong.

i think high ground maybe on wednesday.

there after i think as snowfor me suggested the turn of the west with west to northwest flow this will also be pretty chilly north alantic and greenland have had some pretty dam cold weather,

so i agree west and north west will be best after wednesday as the pressure in northern europe get shunted away.

:lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

The GFS 12z is very similar to the 00z gfs but completely different to the 6z, there is nothing strikingly mild about this run, in fact the temps look no better than average in most areas and scotland seems to have the coldest weather and therefore the highest risk of snow (mostly on northern hills), later next week as fronts engage cold continental air there could be a snow event in the northeast and then further on, the north seems to drag in some rPm air at times with a chance of wintry showers followed by a vigorous depression which could have more snow for the north followed by an arctic outbreak again shown in FI. As for the block to the east and northeast, it looks like hanging around for at least another week before being pushed away eastwards.

Indeed. Sounds a little like last January to me - not particularly mild for most, though snow events were mainly marginal and confined to northern England and Scotland. After that, there still looks to be the chance of a Scandi trough with possible height rises from the northwest, which would bring colder arctic air back, at least for a time.

LS

[David-kig]

overall it looks very messy outlook. nothing looks curtain at the minute. cold or mild. no man land as a few have said looks like whats on over for abit or 2

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

lol i laugh very much at them warnings the charts dont suggest this but i can understand why the meto would be a little worried not to get it wrong.

i think high ground maybe on wednesday.

there after i think as snowfor me suggested the turn of the west with west to northwest flow this will also be pretty chilly north alantic and greenland have had some pretty dam cold weather,

so i agree west and north west will be best after wednesday as the pressure in northern europe get shunted away.

The FAX charts show the 528 dam line not far away from the east coast and with a feature running along the channel dragging colder air on its northern flank. Admittedly, will probably not be a low level event if it materialised as is, a bit of elevation would be needed. Still, lots of time for this to change, and a lot of these changes will most likely come from the GFS with the way it has been performing recently :lol:

[igloo]

it looks a real mess between +168 to +216 on tonights ECM run it does look however mid week there could be snow but turning back to rain by the looks of things

[Cheese Rice]

well from them charts id laugh at the meto forecast warnings for snow they do not look like snow charts to me.

but for febuary i think its way to early to be shouting mild i think cold will be from a different direction with slightly below average temps mixed with colder interludes i cant see this winter being over without seeing some sort of sudden chage.

but if im honest right now everything is very messy or maybe even stuck.

The Meto warnings look wrong to me, the areas in the warning look like the less likely places to get snow, places like SW England and Wales and NW England have little if any chance of snow, the fax charts show the 528 dam edging ever closer to Eastern England, and the GFS shows the PPN passing though the UK and stalling over NE areas. If anything it's the places that don't have a warning are likely to get snow, East midlands/SE England/NE England/East Scotland etc.

Edited January 16, 2010 by 10123

[TEITS]

I don't know why some are surprised at the Met O warnings. Despite the frenzy of posting mild charts, myself and Nick S have mentioned the possibility of a snow event on Wed for the past 2 days!

The ECM 12Z shows why I disagreed with GP about the trough moving into Europe. The block to our NE is going to prevent it. We also see the PV back W at +240 and not E like some suggested.

If anything it's the places that don't have a warning are likely to get snow, East midlands/SE England/NE England/East Scotland etc.

Yes I do agree with that.

Edited January 16, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[The PIT]

I expect the snow warning to go by the end of tomorrow. Certainly won't be a low level event however one may wish it.

[igloo]

the last 2 charts on this evenings ECM are quite frankly bizzare if any experienced members could give a good guess what they mean .

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0

[Cheese Rice]

I expect the snow warning to go by the end of tomorrow. Certainly won't be a low level event however one may wish it.

I don't see why not, a rain to snow event likely, the front is pretty slow moving and with evaporating cooling etc I'm sure snow will be achieved. Even today at 2.6c we had heavy wet snow. Winds were coming from the SE, and they will be on Wednesday, maybe the cold surface air over the continent is been pulled in, which caused snow. Perhaps something similar to that on Wednesday.

[Snowyowl9]

well from them charts id laugh at the meto forecast warnings for snow they do not look like snow charts to me.

but for febuary i think its way to early to be shouting mild i think cold will be from a different direction with slightly below average temps mixed with colder interludes i cant see this winter being over without seeing some sort of sudden chage.

but if im honest right now everything is very messy or maybe even stuck.

Undercutter low east/SE wind -1c upper air will bring snow here from that set-up,seen enough lows like that lately.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.gif

Then another possible low.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Infact this ECM run the atlantic has a battle on it`s hands.

[TEITS]

I expect the snow warning to go by the end of tomorrow. Certainly won't be a low level event however one may wish it.

Nothing to do with wishing it. Maybe you could elaborate why you think the warning will be gone tomorrow.

What a majority have been missing is between +72/+96 we pick up a colder SE,ly flow.

Now you have to remember you don't need bitterly cold upper temps with a SE,ly. The surface cold and the low dewpoints is the reason why the Met O have put out a warning.

What I find interesting is these past few days much reference has been made to mild and yet here we are with warnings for snow. Also last night a weatherview forecast I watched with RM referred to how uncertain next week is. So some members reading this thread must be confused why there is this discrepancy between the posts on here and the BBC/Met O forecasts. Well I shall answer why this is.

I have maintained all along that when it comes to forecasting using the models you also need to use instinct. Now the reason RM said next week is uncertain is because they also realise that the models might be underestimating the block to our NE and are also using forecasting instinct. Now members such as Nick Sussex correctly mentioned the chance of a snow event on Wed but sadly this has been missed by many because they have been too focussed on the Atlantic returning.

Even I confess the chance of an E,ly is pretty much gone. However the chance of snow events occuring this week remains a possibility. Also how influencial the block to our NE becomes is still uncertain.

Edited January 16, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Despite the frenzy of posting mild charts, myself and Nick S have mentioned the possibility of a snow event on Wed for the past 2 days!

Not actually sure how mild charts could have been posted, as there haven't been any that have embedded the UK?

But then if they had, and had been posted, it would have been just as relevant as posting a cold chart. A balance is needed when posting these charts, not just one that we wish to see.

Looking at Wednesday, for the whole 24 hour period, based on the the GFS 12z, neither the 850's, 500's dew points, T2m temps, ppn intensity, 0oC Isotherm or ppn type support anything bar some snow over the northern UK hills about 500m - unless i've missed something on analysing the charts.

A short period of lower dew points (0-3 hours) unfortunately happens when there is no ppn about.

Stranger things have happened, but instinct of these situations, where this has fallen as snow, is not something that is quantifiable, and is such, is not something we should get the hopes up of those reading this thread. It is the model discussion after all...

Slightly off topic, but also a quick question on your gull forecasting. If there is a large flock of gulls, what is the time frame you apply to the cold actually hitting?

Edited January 16, 2010 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[TEITS]

Not actually sure how mild charts could have been posted, as there haven't been any that have embedded the UK?

But then if they had, and had been posted, it would have been just as relevant as posting a cold chart. A balance is needed when posting these charts, not just one that we wish to see.

I shall give you an example of what I mean.

I won't mention any names but a few days ago someone posted a +126 chart and mentioned something along the lines of "looks like the atlantic is winning the battle as it turns milder". Yet upon close inspection of that +126 chart the conditions would of delivered snow due to the colder SE,ly. So its nothing to do with balance but this member was so determined to post what he thought was a mild chart was actually a snow event!

If I was honest i've been rather disappointed with the quality of the posts lately especially from some who should know better. This is why my favourite poster on this thread is Nick Sussex. You find with Nick S not only does he comment on the models but also highlights how they could be wrong or how a cold spell could go pearshaped or develop. Prior to our recent cold spell he suggested E,lys would develop via a Scandi HP before the models even programmed this. I remember him saying "surely a scandi HP will develop here" and magically the next day this happened.

P.S Looks like the Seagulls were right based on the Met O warnings!

Edited January 16, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Frosty.]

Indeed. Sounds a little like last January to me - not particularly mild for most, though snow events were mainly marginal and confined to northern England and Scotland. After that, there still looks to be the chance of a Scandi trough with possible height rises from the northwest, which would bring colder arctic air back, at least for a time.

LS

Just seen the ECM 12z and it looks very unsettled for the next 10 days with spells of rain, sleet and snow depending on elevation and again it looks like the north is most favoured for snow and not exclusively on hills either.

[ChartViewer]

Not actually sure how mild charts could have been posted, as there haven't been any that have embedded the UK?

But then if they had, and had been posted, it would have been just as relevant as posting a cold chart. A balance is needed when posting these charts, not just one that we wish to see.

Looking at Wednesday, for the whole 24 hour period, based on the the GFS 12z, neither the 850's, 500's dew points, T2m temps, ppn intensity, 0oC Isotherm or ppn type support anything bar some snow over the northern UK hills about 500m - unless i've missed something on analysing the charts.

A short period of lower dew points (0-3 hours) unfortunately happens when there is no ppn about.

Stranger things have happened, but instinct of these situations, where this has fallen as snow, is not something that is quantifiable, and is such, is not something we should get the hopes up of those reading this thread. It is the model discussion after all...

Slightly off toptic, but also a quick question on your gull forecasting. If there is a large flock of gulls, what is the time frame you apply to the cold actually hitting?

Hi,

Firstly this is the Model thread and I respect TEITS views immensely as I do Nick Sussex but I have to say

Paul B has been posting most charts over the last 3 days and saying what he sees.

I have even questioned some of the charts especially when I saw the 1060 Siberian High....However

we have to be realistic here.........I posted the 12z ECM last night as I saw it and although

I would love to see cold and respect there maybe a change in days 11-13 as per GP excellent post

on the In Depth thread, I would like to say I cannot see why people are disapointed when other

posters show models which are NOT mild but just typical weather in the UK....Eg Atlantic, rain wind etc

It happens.....It doesnt mean you should be disapointed with what we are posting?

I think it comes back to trying to FIND the weather we prefer rather than what the Models are showing

Regards,

CV

Edited January 16, 2010 by ChartViewer

[nick sussex]

I think the best that can be said for the general output this evening is that it's a mess into FI, even more so than normal. The ECM is contending with the block to the east, the AO going negative and also energy going into the southern arm of the jet so anyone calling a mild outlook obviously has a crystal ball at hand!

In terms of the possible snow event for Wednesday this is still a good possibility,the driest air and with the lowest dew points comes off a se flow in winter so this combined with heavy precip and uppers below freezing is perfectly capable of delivering snow. Snow off continental flows has different requirements than that for example off northerly flows.

[Paul Sherman]

P.S Looks like the Seagulls were right based on the Met O warnings!

Lets hope the Meto have not been too Swift with there warnings or it might be hard too Swallow for some if it goes Tits Up, No doubt you will be chained to your Lamppost Puffin on those Ciggies, let's hope we dont all get Bittern again or some may have a funny Tern. If it comes off lots will be well Choughed!

Paul S

[J10]

Lets hope the Meto have not been too Swift with there warnings or it might be hard too Swallow for some if it goes Tits Up, No doubt you will be chained to your Lamppost Puffin on those Ciggies, let's hope we dont all get Bittern again or some may have a funny Tern. If it comes off lots will be well Choughed!

Paul S

Going by current charts, if appears to be weather for ducks in the west.

[TEITS]

Lets hope the Meto have not been too Swift with there warnings or it might be hard too Swallow for some if it goes Tits Up, No doubt you will be chained to your Lamppost Puffin on those Ciggies, let's hope we dont all get Bittern again or some may have a funny Tern. If it comes off lots will be well Choughed!

Paul S

Brillant mate.

If I don't see any snow next week then I shall shoot the bloody things.

[Paul Sherman]

Brillant mate.

If I don't see any snow next week then I shall shoot the bloody things.

Lol Same Here

Seriosuly though I Have always thought the 528Dam too be marginal and 522Dam much better for Snow, is this an exclusively above 200Metres Snow event (Eg Chilterns, Downs etc)