Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

I don't think anyone can really say whats going to happen for sure. The models are changing within 6 hours!!! Seems like something different everytime. At the moment, It's the cold thats winning :blush:

In any case, it looks like the Atlantic is winning over the weekend to me!

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack0.html

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack1.html

Still some question marks over next week, but no real surprise to see the GFS was a huge cold outlier in early FI. Overall the ensembles haven't changed too much from today's earlier runs. Will be interesting to see what the ECM comes up with shortly.

[Methuselah]

No, the outlook doesn't look mild; it looks 'average,' for anything but the Modern Winter...(Which is a reality, IMO!). The models will 'flip' between cold and mild - that's what things used to be like - in the 1960s: we never knew what was going to happen 6-days' hence... :blush:

[Timmytour]

I don't think anyone can really say whats going to happen for sure. The models are changing within 6 hours!!! Seems like something different everytime. At the moment, It's the cold thats winning :blush:

You might say they're blowing mild and cold at the moment :blush:

[PB22]

ECM 12Z now coming out, and we do have a continental feed at T+96, but by T+120 its slightly different to the GFS and UKMO output:

T+96:

T+120:

[bluearmy]

t120 on ecm. where are the two pieces of energy headed? - shortwave mid atlantic needs to head se and we dont want the shortwave n of iceland going ne - needs to go nw and allow retrogression towards the embryonic rising heights n greenland. doubnt we'll get both.

[TEITS]

]

Still some question marks over next week, but no real surprise to see the GFS was a huge cold outlier in early FI. Overall the ensembles haven't changed too much from today's earlier runs. Will be interesting to see what the ECM comes up with shortly.

If you don't mind me saying mate I disagree about the ensembles.

For the 21st Jan not one member on the 0Z/06Z runs had any member below -5C and now we have 5 members which is obviously 25%.

In these situations the operationals are far more important than the ensembles. If the 12Z GFS trend continues then the ensembles agreement will grow.

[PB22]

If you don't mind me saying mate I disagree about the ensembles.

For the 21st Jan not one member on the 0Z/06Z runs had any member below -5C and now we have 5 members which is obviously 25%.

In these situations the operationals are far more important than the ensembles. If the 12Z GFS trend continues then the ensembles agreement will grow.

Hi Dave, which ensembles are you referring to?

On the WZ London one there's 3 runs that go below -5C - but they are jolly chilly at around -10C for the 21st:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Sadly, the operational run isn't one of the runs that goes below -5C.

ECM T+144:

Some hints of heights building towards Greenland there...

[Polar Gael]

Time for me to reveal my secret forecasting tool. However let me explain something first.

My obsession with E,lys started during the winter of 78/79 as the blizzards left a lasting impression as I was only 8yrs old. During my childhood days my Grandad would often tell me stories about 1947 and how the Siberian winds always brings heavy snow to this part of the world. Now my Grandparents used to say to me that during the winter if you see a mass of Seagulls this is a sign of the weather coming from Siberia. Apparently this is a well known saying in E Anglia.

Recently my mother informed me of a huge number of Seagulls in this area which I have also witnessed first hand. Now the combination of the model output showing a battle and the Seagulls is what makes me believe the E,ly is on its way. This has proved very accurate in the past especially prior to 1987 & 1991. However this time I have never seen so many in Peterborough!

Well, at least it's not grebes... :blush:

It will be interesting to see what the ECM 12Z brings because the ECM 0Z certainly isn't supporting any kind of easterly anytime soon. I have been deeply unimpressed with the GFS this winter and I don't think the parallel has quite learned how to walk yet - but it's still trying to run.

This winter pattern could easily shape up to be another 1981-2 when the deep cold was turned off in mid-Jan just as quickly as it had been turned on. So far, there's enough forecast suggestion (from GP et al) that February is going to be mild for a healthy bit of scepticism re any cold reload and 81-82 does strike me a close analogue at the moment.

But as ever, the models may well flip-flip their way to a monster Siberian blast and the grebes seagulls may be correct. Time will tell.

[Iceni]

Oh and I've just opened my back door and seen this.. :o

Should I invest in more themals??

Seriously though, that is excellent TEITS. These signs are often dismissed as old wives tales etc but I am a firm believer in all of that. My old grandad (a farmer when he was alive) would know what the weather was doing tomorrow far better than any TV weatherman would! Never convinced about the cows lying down = rain one though, more that they are just tired

Anyway, let's see what the ECM throws at us tonight!

I wholeheartedly agree… my sign for a NE/N'ly is fieldfares… they've come every time about 2–4 days before we get one. But I never see them when it's a mild or protracted SW/S'ly zonal pattern.

Birds' element is the air, they're going to be the first to sense any changes — long before the most sensitive devices do. Noticed the previous autumn (2008) there were hundreds of seagulls following the plough in October (far more than usual), and then we had snow at the end of the month.

[Eugene]

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?30-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-168.GIF?30-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-192.GIF?30-0

If you take a look quickly before it updates an improvement over this mornings ECM 00Z at T+144 hrs/T+168 hrs with the siberian high quite a bit further west over scandinavia.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Eugene

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm says NO to any Easterly at 144 the pattern looks very flat to me with the azores high ridging into france.

:o

[PB22]

Unsettled at T+168, but the game isn't necessarily up:

[bluearmy]

ecm T144. bad news is that the atlantic sw heads ne and puts pressure on any retrogression. good news is that the sw near iceland doesnt go ne and we see signs of pressure rising near svaalbard as upper high 1055mb establishes ne scandi.

[ChartViewer]

Hi Dave, which ensembles are you referring to?

On the WZ London one there's 3 runs that go below -5C - but they are jolly chilly at around -10C for the 21st:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Sadly, the operational run isn't one of the runs that goes below -5C.

ECM T+144:

Some hints of heights building towards Greenland there...

Hi Paul,

By ECM168 I see NE Heights backing East, low heights over Greenland lows piling over Iceland

due to the Jet and Vortex and to be honest a SW flow possible.

Unfortunately :o

Hopefully that will change

Regards,

CV

[PB22]

Hi Paul,

By ECM168 I see NE Heights backing East, low heights over Greenland lows piling over Iceland

due to the Jet and Vortex and to be honest a SW flow possible.

Unfortunately :o

Hopefully that will change

Regards,

CV

Hi CV,

Pretty much spot on! GFS operational is certainly out on its own at the moment with its early FI idea, and one would think it is barking up the wrong tree, but there's no telling what future runs may bring.

[Eugene]

LOL don't look too far ahead in this situation, look for small improvements in the nearer timeframe by the run, FI is very close ATM.

Fact is tonights big three are an improvement for the first half of next week over this mornings runs :o

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

LOL don't look too far ahead in this situation, look for small improvements in the nearer timeframe by the run, FI is very close ATM.

Fact is tonights big three are an improvement for the first half of next week over this mornings runs :o

erm ecm is vile,and ukmo at 144 looks just as bad.

gfs is better but would you put any faith in such a garbage model?

[Bobby]

Not a very thrilling ECM. Looks wet for most to me.

Not much support for an easterly from the smaller models either, JMA is particularly horrific

[snowingman]

Not a very thrilling ECM. Looks wet for most to me.

Not much support for an easterly from the smaller models either, JMA is particularly horrific

wet, WARM and windy.... thats winter!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

ECM certainly hasn't followed the GFS script. It all goes downhill in FI

However it does suggest that the upper trough maybe on its way east. Brickfielder could well be right on this one, and we have to go through zonality first

Perhaps it is indeed time to scrap the hopes on the high to the NE?

Edited January 15, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[igloo]

im no expert in these charts but a bartlett high may be on the cards in the later stages of this run quite shocking charts

[phil nw.]

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?30-0

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?30-0

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?30-0

If you take a look quickly before it updates an improvement over this mornings ECM 00Z at T+144 hrs/T+168 hrs with the siberian high quite a bit further west over scandinavia.

Looks like ECM is similar to UKMO up to T144hrs.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

The Atlantic holds fast and keeps the colder air just to our East

http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_120.png

Later on the Siberian Beast is back in his cage.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

And the cold air pushed right back to Scandinavia.

http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_192.png

So another 24hrs. on and next week still looks chilly for many with the UK a close range spectator,of this struggle.

However the chances of a genuine Easterly developing in the next week or so seem quite remote now i think.

Edited January 15, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Frosty.]

In any case, it looks like the Atlantic is winning over the weekend to me!

Indeed paul, a much milder day on sunday nationwide with temps between 8-10c across the board and a sw'ly breeze so a very rapid thaw of the remaining snow will occur BUT monday could see temps falling again across england although it looks a fine day for many but with temps back down to 4-6c, milder in northern britain with some rain and fresh sw'ly winds.

gfs is better but would you put any faith in such a garbage model?

Nope :o

[Bobby]

Well the GFS op is pretty good but take a look at the ensembles... not so good, the op has no support at all later in the run, big cold outlier.

[ChartViewer]

Unfortunately out to T216 the ECM12Z is poor....

1. Low heights over Greenland and Scandi

2. PV joined and meaning Icelandic lows

3. Heights of at least 1030 over Iberia...Never a good sign

4. SWesterlies showing and to be honest probably favorite to win out now

5. That huge Siberian High backing East.......the reason we open up to SW

To me at moment it doesnt look good for cold for a week 10 days at least :o

Just calling it as I see the ECM hope Im wrong lol

Regards

CV

Edited January 15, 2010 by ChartViewer