Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 20:

[lorenzo]

[LomondSnowstorm]

That does look increasingly like its headed for north and east england.

As far as I can see, there is an anti-snow force field which has developed over fife and southern scotland....

Ah well, have my radar watchers anonymous meeting tomorrow, so should probably try to be good tonight...

LSS - care to give your educated thoughts on what might cause me to fall off the wagon in the next few days?

http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png

Potential maybe. Not sure about after that, a bit of a marginal event mid-next week but not going to jinx it by posting charts which will likely change in the coming days.

LS

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

http://cache.netweat.../fax/PPVI89.png

Potential maybe. Not sure about after that, a bit of a marginal event mid-next week but not going to jinx it by posting charts which will likely change in the coming days.

LS

Ha ha, conservative view as usual. that's what's best; then the surprises are more fun. Wish the model thread could do the same.

I've already jinxed things with my visit to halfords, so no worries.

Is it me, or is that trough just a little bit more east?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ha ha, conservative view as usual. that's what's best; then the surprises are more fun. Wish the model thread could do the same.

I've already jinxed things with my visit to halfords, so no worries.

Taking the conservative view, me? Never! I'm ever the model liberal

I've given up on the radar - too annoying, but you, my friend, might well be in luck this evening. I'm waiting for the 18Z NMM to come out, but if it's similar to the last one, you could be seeing at least an hour or two of snow at around 3am. If the 18Z suggest the same, I'll post it as these chart are usually very accurate 6 hours out.

LS

[Northernlights]

Had several heavy blowing snow showers this evening after them dying away this afternoon, about 2 inches now and currently -2c. What a different January to many in the last few decades.

[Guest]

No mention of a Polar Low? My, you people are slipping :smiliz19:

What have we here coming out of Norway in a north to south direction?

You missed the "Polar Low" incident which was shown on the SatRep website earlier today:

The thingy off Norway is just the low developing... :blink: I think!!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Taking the conservative view, me? Never! I'm ever the model liberal

I've given up on the radar - too annoying, but you, my friend, might well be in luck this evening. I'm waiting for the 18Z NMM to come out, but if it's similar to the last one, you could be seeing at least an hour or two of snow at around 3am. If the 18Z suggest the same, I'll post it as these chart are usually very accurate 6 hours out.

LS

I'll take the conservative view then and cold turkey (not watch radar) until at least 3 am.

The old watching scotland play football jinx comes in here; if I watch, we're fu*k*d.

Edited January 29, 2010 by scottish skier

[Guest]

Yes it is F.I. and no it won't happen. But has anyone ever seen a chart like this:

:smiliz19: :blink:

[Northernlights]

Had several heavy blowing snow showers this evening after them dying away this afternoon, about 2 inches now and currently -2c. What a different January to many in the last few decades.

Just been outside and with the cloud lit up by a bright moon it appears that there is a line of snow coming across the Firth from the north with all the town lights to the north obscured by falling snow just as happened on the 20th of December. Looks like we will have agood covering by morning

[Hairy Celt]

Well I had given up on us getting more than a dusting so had settled down with beer and dvd. Then in came the family at 9:30 - 'have you seen outside?' We have a good thick covering, maybe 6 to 8cm. Northerlies sometimes deliver here, sometimes not. I'm off for a moonlit walk.

[LadyPakal]

Another heavy shower here, blowing about in the wind.

I saw something today I've not seen for a long time - snow drifted up outside on my bedroom window ledge. Still, I am living in a house that faces north now so not so unexpected, with the winds we've had today during the snowfalls.

[Neilsouth]

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/xwc_webcamlist.asp

[Guest]

18z run not without a little support:

Look at the mean!!

[LadyPakal]

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/xwc_webcamlist.asp

Try the traffic cam just south of Aberdeen... http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/index.aspx

[Guest]

Try the traffic cam just south of Aberdeen... http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/index.aspx

That's one of Scotland's main roads, reduced to a white streak!!! Superb

[LomondSnowstorm]

18z run not without a little support:

Look at the mean!!

I know, the control is even colder! As I said on the model thread, these runs (nothing quite as extreme as the 18Z though!) have been showing up for a few days. There's no reason to assume it cannot happen, it just depends on the exact position of the flow and the high. And anyway, what is the difference between -10 and -18 uppers??

Anyway, I feel the NMM is reliable enough to post this chart Maybe not much but something anyway! Those on the east lothian coast are sitting pretty though, less so than those in Aberdeenshire and Eastern England but not too bad nonetheless.

LS

[Guest]

And anyway, what is the difference between -10 and -18 uppers??

LS

I hope that is a rhetorical question!!! There is a world of difference between -10 and -18 uppers!!!! As you well know Mr LSS!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I hope that is a rhetorical question!!! There is a world of difference between -10 and -18 uppers!!!! As you well know Mr LSS!

Would both deliver widespread convective snow from an easterly? Probably. Would both give maxima around or below freezing? Probably. Was the February easterly better than 1987(based on what I've heard of '87)? Of course not! I think we'd both very very happily take a few days of -10 uppers with an easterly flow, while the holy grail of the 18Z is something which will probably be confined to FI, though the very fact that it is showing is testament to the potential of this set up.

LS

[Guest]

Would both deliver widespread convective snow from an easterly? Probably. Would both give maxima around or below freezing? Probably. Was the February easterly better than 1987(based on what I've heard of '87)? Of course not! I think we'd both very very happily take a few days of -10 uppers with an easterly flow, while the holy grail of the 18Z is something which will probably be confined to FI, though the very fact that it is showing is testament to the potential of this set up.

LS

I don't care about anything else right now LSS. I have NEVER seen any model run throw this into the mix:

Yes, it is just the mad mental 18z pub run "OOO, I'm mental, I'm the Pub Run". But even the pub run has never done this before.

If someone can show me when any model run has shown this before then I will be truely enlightened!! ;)

[Cheggers]

It seems I missed a reasonable 18Z this evening Was out doing the Scottish Snow dance to try and suck those showers in bit further in land.

CMD .... what a chart, might think twice about putting on my kilt on that day.

[Snooz]

Evening all.

Biting wind here and T down to -1.4 C. Can certainly feel the northerly. Great to hear people are getting snow. I'm not in the least bit jealous. Not at all. I mean it. Honestly. Could not care one bit. I mean, who needs snow anyway, its all cold and stuff.

ah that's good, I won't tell you about the rest of my day then, as it would only make you even less jealous

Would both deliver widespread convective snow from an easterly? Probably. Would both give maxima around or below freezing? Probably. Was the February easterly better than 1987(based on what I've heard of '87)? Of course not! I think we'd both very very happily take a few days of -10 uppers with an easterly flow, while the holy grail of the 18Z is something which will probably be confined to FI, though the very fact that it is showing is testament to the potential of this set up.

LS

Nice reply LS!

all I can say is what a day! ran out of weather superlatives a long time ago.. but we're here [home]. Road is NOT clear, no amount of clearing was going to do that today, car is not here, most drivers are nutters (and we haven't even got the length of the really bad stuff yet apparently!)

was at a meeting earlier an feel the need to use bullet points for emphasis:

• SS you make me giggle
• CMD, no I've never seen anything that blue, I've led a sheltered life
• yes it's still snowing
• sure you will all see it again soon
• in 10 days time I'll check again
• yes I've been drinking mulled wine, that's what socialising in winter is all about, isn't it?

[Richard Taylor]

Hi aII.

Abdn got hit by hvy snow rush hour Fri pm. Continuous for about an hour 5.15 - 6.15-ish. Chaos!!

This morning, not snowing just now, but about 4-5' Iying I wouId say.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Richard Taylor

[Blizzardo]

Model agreement not as good this morning on cold moving in from the east. GFS ensembles are the poorest for over a week on the likliehood for extended cold, although its all relative and still showing a pretty cold mean.

The 12z's will be important later today to see what way things are moving.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Model agreement not as good this morning on cold moving in from the east. GFS ensembles are the poorest for over a week on the likliehood for extended cold, although its all relative and still showing a pretty cold mean.

The 12z's will be important later today to see what way things are moving.

Perhaps the key is that the control backs the operational in going cold. It looks worse than last night but there is too much uncertainty with +96 to worry about anything further out, especially given this morning's output. Did you get any snow SS?

LS

[Northernlights]

Curently -3c with about 3 inches of snow, not snowing but wind is occasionally blowing some snow off the roofs.