Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 20:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Have you seen the ensemble mean pressure? Nothing like it since '47! -8- -10 upper easterlies locked in for a month in that scenario! http://charts.netwea...slpmean-228.png http://charts.netwea...slpmean-276.png

Reverse zonality - easterlies all the way from Russia to Canada! Truly spoilt for synoptics this year - in previous years this northerly would be met with real optimism and excitement of just seeing some decent frost and low maxima with bits and pieces of snow possible for some,and yet this year we're complaining about lack of snow from it! Anyone want this?? http://www.wetterzen...00119890128.gif http://www.wetterzen...00219890130.gif

Even Cookie wouldn't be too keen as the winds don't look all that exceptional!

LS

edit:Meant to specify that the ensemble mean is unlikely to verify, as it is merely a composite of lots of runs, but it is a good sign in the long run!

Yep, I think we should all be remaining upbeat about the coming northerly with the general trend apparently being for more, possibly quite intense, cold to follow.

Unrelated, but interesting all the same; seems the university of global warming needs a slap on the wrists for withholding data.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8484385.stm

tsk, tsk, tsk....

[Guest]

Yep, I think we should all be remaining upbeat about the coming northerly with the general trend apparently being for more, possibly quite intense, cold to follow.

I'm quite excited by the northerly, despite it being a bit of a toppler. Not too shabby ensembles showing sub -5C 850 temps right through the weekend and into the first day or so of February. In a normal winter we'd all be salivating profusely.

As for the climate people with-holding their data, that doesn't look too clever does it? You only with-hold something when you're hiding something. I still have to admit to be a fencesitter when it comes to climate change; although I firmly believe that we should all be making the most of what resources the planet has to offer/has left. So I'm not against using fossil fuels, I just believe that we should be optimising the use of them.

Anyway, where's my snaw?!?!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'm quite excited by the northerly, despite it being a bit of a toppler. Not too shabby ensembles showing sub -5C 850 temps right through the weekend and into the first day or so of February. In a normal winter we'd all be salivating profusely.

As for the climate people with-holding their data, that doesn't look too clever does it? You only with-hold something when you're hiding something. I still have to admit to be a fencesitter when it comes to climate change; although I firmly believe that we should all be making the most of what resources the planet has to offer/has left. So I'm not against using fossil fuels, I just believe that we should be optimising the use of them.

Anyway, where's my snaw?!?!

I think some of your snaw is currently near spitsbergen and the rest over siberia. Watch this space for delivery dates.

We'll see soon enough anyway.

Agreed on GW. I'm a research scientist so want to hear both sides of the story and make my own mind up. What I really don't like is the way the GW camp insult other very clever people who have good evidence that it is not apparently all set in stone. Any sign of people playing with data or withholding it is very serious and certainly needs investigating.

Off to work now. Looking forward to the weekend...

[Blizzardo]

Really quite remarkable ensemble agreement this morning on quite a lengthy cold spell.

There is not a lot of spread at the end of the runs and its basically saying - strong northerly influence followed by a few possible evolutions towards a cold easterly but in the end we will get there and it will be cold.

Personally I'm still a bit wary because of the timescales involved and the different stages that still have to happen but really encouraging signs if your looking for another cold and maybe very cold spell.

[blitzen]

Encouraging indeed and lots to look forward to! Temp 2.7c and 0.9c dewpoint with WNW wind. A very nice morning here.

[Northernlights]

Currently 2c, overcast, hardly any wind and few drizzly showers.

[Methuselah]

All doom-and-gloom in the MOD today...Why?

[snowy owl]

Steer clear of the mod thread till later i think!

Still signs looks interesting for longer term IMO. loads more to get through yet before gloomy predictions methinks!

Anyway lovely morning here, sun is out and a little breeze cool but not cold. great day.

Looking forward to the weekend to see what it brings, as long as the snow waits till Monday please.

[Guest]

All doom-and-gloom in the MOD today...Why?

One good run and it'll be 1947 redux.

I don't know why I'm so upbeat about the cold weather this weekend, it looks rather dry for the central belt. For some reason I felt that winter was over after the last cold spell ended. I need to remember that there are 6-7 weeks of good snow potential left and arguably a further 4 weeks of moderate snow potential

Edited January 28, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Blizzardo]

All doom-and-gloom in the MOD today...Why?

I'm going to blame it on that 12z ECM run the other night that showed a seriously cold and snowy spell a la 1947. The problem with getting a run like that is that some people start comparing all future runs against it and it seems that what are perfectly good runs are downgrades.

I think patience will be needed when viewing the models over the next week as there will be a few ups and downs. It will create some funny posts and a bit of heated debate which is always good.

[Guest]

I'm going to blame it on that 12z ECM run the other night that showed a seriously cold and snowy spell a la 1947. The problem with getting a run like that is that some people start comparing all future runs against it and it seems that what are perfectly good runs are downgrades.

I think patience will be needed when viewing the models over the next week as there will be a few ups and downs. It will create some funny posts and a bit of heated debate which is always good.

There is still the odd chart in F.I. which may provoke some cardiac problems:

[snowy owl]

Just been browsing some world temps and boy is it cold in Yakutia area of Russia(Oymyakon) - temp of 70 below 0 on wednesday! Today around -31C. dewpoint of -32!

amazing, imagine how cold that is - how on earth do people survive in those constatntly freezing temps?

[LadyPakal]

Night before last, did anyone see the incredible colours at sunset? I ask becauser I have just seen this on SpaceWeather:

http://www.spaceweather.com/ 'STRATOSPHERIC CLOUD ALERT'.

Sadly I was on the bus and did not have a camera but it was incredible to see how deep the colours were. Like this:

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Pete-Glastonbury-Jan26Sunset_1264630368.jpg

I caught a glimpse through a space in the black clouds (luckily located in the west, otherwise I would have missed it), lit on the underside with a rich muted reflection of the colours in the sky. It certainly improved my evening commute!

[Blizzardo]

There is still the odd chart in F.I. which may provoke some cardiac problems:

I saw that one, its a cracker. I think there may be a few excellent charts popping up over the next couple of days.

PS Met Office advisory of blizzards for the North of Scotland now for both Saturday and Sunday.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Guest]

I saw that one, its a cracker. I think there may be a few excellent charts popping up over the next couple of days.

PS Met Office advisory of blizzards for the North of Scotland now for both Saturday and Sunday.

And closer to home, the TAF for Glasgow Airport is forecasting the odd light snow shower for tomorrow morning from 3am to 12pm:

TAF EGPF 281101Z 2812/2912 27008KT 9999 FEW014 SCT030 TEMPO

2815/2903 6000 -RADZ BKN012 PROB40 TEMPO 2818/2903 4000 RADZ

BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2903/2912 4000 -SHSN BKN010 BECMG 2903/2906

32015G25KT =

[LadyPakal]

Had a report of snow falling in the Turrif area.

TAF for Aberdeen:

TAF EGPD 281101Z 2812/2912 30012KT 9999 FEW014 SCT040 PROB30 TEMPO

2812/2815 4000 SHRASN BKN014 BECMG 2815/2818 VRB05KT TEMPO

2815/2824 4000 RASN FEW004 BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 2900/2912 2400

SHSN BKN010 BECMG 2903/2906 34018G30KT =

Edited January 28, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Guest]

Had a report of snow falling in the Turrif area.

TAF for Aberdeen:

TAF EGPD 281101Z 2812/2912 30012KT 9999 FEW014 SCT040 PROB30 TEMPO

2812/2815 4000 SHRASN BKN014 BECMG 2815/2818 VRB05KT TEMPO

2815/2824 4000 RASN FEW004 BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 2900/2912 2400

SHSN BKN010 BECMG 2903/2906 34018G30KT =

That's promising too with sleet clearing to snow showers. I think a few people will get a pleasant surprise from the rain band moving south tonight, it may well turn to snow briefly before clearing.

Right, I'm off to renew my subs for NW-Extra

[sammie]

the wind outside has turned BITTER! Oh my word think I need a jacket when I go back outside.

[Guest]

I'm not sure if anyone else will agree with me, but I'm not that bothered if we don't see much snow from the northerly and I think that's maybe why I'm upbeat about the prospects.

Some nice cold sunshine would be very nice; by a rough calculation (via WeatherOnline) we've only had 14 hours of sun here since the 10th January and less than 3 hours of sun in the last 9 days. Compare that to over 35 hours of sun in the first ten days of January. I suffer quite badly when I don't see the sun for a while so two or three sunny days will help a great deal. A few flakes of snow would be nice too

[Cheggers]

Just been browsing some world temps and boy is it cold in Yakutia area of Russia(Oymyakon) - temp of 70 below 0 on wednesday! Today around -31C. dewpoint of -32!

amazing, imagine how cold that is - how on earth do people survive in those constatntly freezing temps?

I think there was a program on Discover about that (Survivorman???) He spent the night in a tent, and when they went to check on him he couldn't say how cold as his thermometer broke at -56!!!

Oymyakon I think holds the record as the coldest habitable place on earth?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/05/0512_040512_tvoymyakon.html

Edited January 28, 2010 by Cheggers

[LadyPakal]

Meto warnings updated. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[blitzen]

Thought all would be happy with the 12z predictions but there still appears to be quite a bit of tension on the MOD. Is there something I'm missing?

[Sunny Leith]

Natural and sensible caution from some Blitzen ... (my position as well I think, once things move more into the reliable timeframe I'll be happier).

For others on there they either have an agenda of being "proved right" or of proving someone else wrong ... lots of egos on there and some of that petty squabbling goes back a fair old way.

Which is why I prefer this thread ultimately. Calmer ... more level-headed ...

I just dip into the model thread for musings from the likes of Steve Murr and John Holmes. If they start getting excited then I know its time for me to get excited as well

Its all a bit of fun at the end of the day because ... well because the weather will do whatever it wants anyway...

Thought all would be happy with the 12z predictions but there still appears to be quite a bit of tension on the MOD. Is there something I'm missing?

Edited January 28, 2010 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi all. Caution most definitely required when model watching but the building blocks towards an easterly are most definitely the favoured option. AO divebombing again which can only be good.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?28-18

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-150.png?12

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100128/12/h500slpmean-168.png

If the ECM and ECM ensembles are good, the odds of a cold easterly will shorten a bit more.

Sadly the weather outside is not much to talk about, pretty wet and miserable really. This event has downgraded horribly in the last 48/72 hours. Oh well, at least a cold and sunny weekend is in prospect!

LS

[LadyPakal]

Sleet here now. Edit - well, more like wet snow now. Well, proper snow now. Still too warm & wet to lay tho'.

Check out the traffic cams - the A96 NW of Aberdeen is getting a pasting.

Starting trying to settle on cars - this is going to make a mess of the morning commute when it freezes...

Edited January 28, 2010 by LadyPakal