Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 20:

[snowy owl]

Very interesting charts again, lots to happen yet before we can get nearer the possible easterly.

To the nearer timeframe - please don't snow sun/mon - i need to take my daughter into hospital and home again. I don't fancy the trip in a blizzard!

Please special request keep the snow north and then bring it down on Tuesday. Thanks!

Off to do some work too so i can concentrate on chart watching later in the week/weekend and see what happens. :lol:

[Sunny Leith]

LOL I know the metoffice do this all the time these days ... but can anyone tell me when the winter-time prospect of ice on roads and pavements became "a severe weather event" ? For gods sake.... :lol:

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Advisory of severe or extreme weatherThere is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of northern England and Scotland on Friday morning.

Following rain, sleet and hill snow on Thursday night, widespread ice is likely to form on untreated roads and pavements during Friday morning across parts of northern England and Scotland.

Issued at: 1057 Wed 27 Jan

[blitzen]

Just shows how completely inept I am at reading the models because I thought that being under -5 uppers would equate to lower temps near ground level. We are currently sitting at 9.9c here with dewpoints at 9.7c! Which is the highest we've seen since early December. However, I notice that NL is saying that temps are starting to drop further up now so maybe things are finally on the move. Don't know what to make of next week really yet - does anyone? but the way this winter has evolved so far I am ever hopeful!

[Guest]

Galashiels and yes we did last time over 1 feet of snow

You'll be hoping for an easterly element then Stuart; and it's looking quite northerly at first. Although if you've had over a foot of snow the last time then it's our turn over this side of the country :cold:

Having said that, if the low runs down the North Sea as forecast you could see some decent snow over the weekend.

[sandstorm2]

Afternoon everybody, has been positively tropical here today, temp got up to 9.9c warmest it has been since mid December.

Looks like the cold is going to come back from about Thursday onwards and a possible severe spell developing later next week, saying with fingers crossed.

SS2

[Guest]

Afternoon everybody, has been positively tropical here today, temp got up to 9.9c warmest it has been since mid December.

Looks like the cold is going to come back from about Thursday onwards and a possible severe spell developing later next week, saying with fingers crossed.

SS2

The mercury might be showing the fat part of 10C, however, I can vouch that it does not feel at all warm outside

I took ToddlerCatch for a walk up the cycle track earlier and the stiff breeze was taking several degrees off the air temp. Plus the fact there was quite heavy drizzle in the air too. It didn't feel warm. Which is a shame as mild days in winter can be very enjoyable.

Interesting that the dew point is down to 3C now, from 9C earlier (3 hours ago). Temp still away up at 9C though.

[Snowplough33]

So you keep saying CMD.............. :cold: :D

[Guest]

So you keep saying CMD.............. :) :)

Oooops. The 'puter kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking kept sticking.

Damn technology........

[Snowplough33]

LOL LOL!!

anyway, wonder what the charts will throw up tonight?? Hopefully lots of cold + snow. The thing is, if that last spell only happens once every 20 - 30 years (or whatever the figures are) then I think its not too likely that its gonna happen again within a month??? Call me cinical, but.................. :)

[Guest]

LOL LOL!!

anyway, wonder what the charts will throw up tonight?? Hopefully lots of cold + snow. The thing is, if that last spell only happens once every 20 - 30 years (or whatever the figures are) then I think its not too likely that its gonna happen again within a month??? Call me cinical, but.................. :)

I doubt we would see weeks on end of snow cover anyway, I know it's still only late January but the sun does get higher and higher in the sky from here on in. I wouldn't rule out a cold week though, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

In all honesty I'm not too fussed about the length of any cold, I only want to see snow falling from the sky and as much of it as possible. If it all gets melted within 2 days I think I can cope

All I need is a stalling front, two days of snow with level depths thigh deep and drifts 4 feet deep. That's not too much to ask is it??

[Snowplough33]

I doubt we would see weeks on end of snow cover anyway, I know it's still only late January but the sun does get higher and higher in the sky from here on in. I wouldn't rule out a cold week though, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

In all honesty I'm not too fussed about the length of any cold, I only want to see snow falling from the sky and as much of it as possible. If it all gets melted within 2 days I think I can cope

All I need is a stalling front, two days of snow with level depths thigh deep and drifts 4 feet deep. That's not too much to ask is it??

Not at all. 2 day blast from the east with -8 to -10 uppers is all I ask. The model thread was fever pitch last night after the 12z runs came out. Talk c/w graphs of winds running from Russia to Canada !! Its very easy to be sucked into it all despite being FI at best, and then of course the inevitable downgrade today :) . But its fun to see these extreme cold runs anyway.Will see what this run brings.......... :)

[Northernlights]

Fallen back to 4c now still breezy with a few light showers

Have to say I remember snow lying for the whole of February in the past and into March especially if we got an anticyclone giving us east winds as night time minimums could be very low indeed. Remember winter started very early this year and sea temperatures are only now approaching their lowest so if the winds are sourced from a cold area they will not be modified so much. Traditional time of the year for cutting back whins and broom on the farm on dry frosty snow covered days but with better light to work in and slightly longer days.

My late mothers favorite phrase at this time of the year was as the days lengthen so the cold strengthens. Being from south of the border when she came here in the early sixties she used to say spring didn"t happen in Scotland summer just arrived on the 1st of June, as we would often see late snowfall settling in March, April and May in that decade.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi all, apologies for absence due to router breaking down! Came back to discover a far more marginal overnight event tomorrow, though anywhere north of a line from Dundee to Oban will see a lot of snow [attachment = 96360: viewimageCAVIML7B.png]

Fife might just see some snowfall, but the likelihood is it will be rain up until about 9pm. The central belt looks to avoid the snow, with only rain and some sleet in heavier bursts with only a little snow at the back-edge of the band. There is still a bit of time for slight upgrades though, so all is not lost. Anyway, it would appear that I've missed a 'beast from the east' hype day, so my dissapointment about the charts is pretty limited - mind you, the beast from the east may well be coming soon - all options are on the table at the moment. As for the chance of showers passing through over the weekend/Monday,there is hope for those of us not exposed enough to get anything off a northerly. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW42-21.GIF?27-17

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?27-12 This chart looks similar to the 23rd December chart!

As for the easterly, the 12Zs that have come out thus far look very promising - the GFS has the slow solution, bringing a cool,dry continental feed for a time before the block slides west http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/12/168/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/12/192/h500slp.png

It takes a few days http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/12/252/h500slp.png but the outcome is really decided from this point onwards http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/12/144/h500slp.png

The low is stuck in the Adriatic so the ridge has to be north of here.

Anyway, just found this FAX chart from yesterday which doesn't look like it will verify fully but it does have incredible snow potential http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW96-21.GIF?27-17 Mind you, the UKMO looks to have the low close enough that the front might just hit eastern Scotland - another one to watch.

Some support from this morning's GEM, which was an absolute (pardon the pun) gem http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-132.png Just quite an astounding chart.

The UKMO 144 chart looks like bringing about a great easterly, with less chance of the atlantic driving the cold air away to the continenthttp://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?27-17

[Snowplough33]

Thanks LS. Some scence at last. You were well out of the madness of yesterday. Figured there was a 'puter issue for you as not a word for 36hrs or so...........very unusual. Intresting times ahoy..... :)

[Blizzardo]

Very good ensembles from the GFS 12z with the mean for my area at or below -5c all the way. Much better trend for cold than this mornings.

I think the key period is around 2nd/3rd Feb.

If we can slip quite seemlessly from northerly to easterly then its game on. If you look at this time period there is quite a clear spread between very cold solutions and relatively mild although the general trend is for cold to win out in the end.

[shuggee]

Just home from a business trip up north to Peterhead - 48 hours too early!

Dam.

Not looking particularly inspiring in the short-medium term for the central belt.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just go ahead and buy one, the weather will do whatever it wants regardless (although I know where you are coming from )

I finally got round to putting the wee one's sledge away yesterday. Looks like it may need to come back out by the weekend.

Don't worry, I've already jinxed more snow for everyone by buying a set of snow chains. Was in Halfords today for some wiper blades and couldn't resist. When I told my colleague who lives near me, he pointed out that I had just killed any prospect for snow according to sod's law.

[Guest]

Don't worry, I've already jinxed more snow for everyone by buying a set of snow chains. Was in Halfords today for some wiper blades and couldn't resist. When I told my colleague who lives near me, he pointed out that I had just killed any prospect for snow according to sod's law.

Let's apply the law of sod slightly differently! It will mean that this time round there will be more snow than the last cold spell but that the gritters/snowploughs will do a good job and you won't need the chains. There. Jinx fixed.

[Snowplough33]

Let's apply the law of sod slightly differently! It will mean that this time round there will be more snow than the last cold spell but that the gritters/snowploughs will do a good job and you won't need the chains. There. Jinx fixed.

Top form today CMD!!!!!!!!!!!! :rofl: :clap:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Let's apply the law of sod slightly differently! It will mean that this time round there will be more snow than the last cold spell but that the gritters/snowploughs will do a good job and you won't need the chains. There. Jinx fixed.

Ha ha. You know your sod's law. Is that not subsection 6, part b1 I see you refering too?

If the ploughs to a good job, I'll just have to drive in the fields - I'm putting the chains on and thats it!

[Norrance]

Well, reached 10.3C here this morning. First double figure temp since 24/11/2009. Hopefully the last for a similar length of time.

Meanwhile will there be an Easterly to follow on from the Northerly? Who knows?

[Cheggers]

Well, reached 10.3C here this morning. First double figure temp since 24/11/2009. Hopefully the last for a similar length of time. <_<

Meanwhile will there be an Easterly to follow on from the Northerly? Who knows?

No good looking on the model thread if you want to find out either.

Although it got up to 9C today felt a lot colder in the stiff breeze. Bit disappointed about prospects for the central belt later this week and weekend.

[Allyw12]

Good evening

Not again !!! really hope we (Perth) don't miss out again, everyone at work keeps asking if we getting snow, I'm glad I never said anything about this weekend

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

while the model thread blows hot and cold as usual, have the meto not apparently made up their minds?

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 10 Feb 2010:

Cold with overnight frost and ice throughout, but a good deal of dry and bright weather for many parts of the UK by day. However, wintry showers are likely for exposed northeastern parts throughout the period, with a risk of more persistent sleet or snow for some eastern areas at times on Monday. Rain, maybe hill snow, might reach the northwest on Tuesday. Wintry showers may spread further inland towards the end of the week as winds become more northeasterly. The mainly dry weather with frost, ice and possibly fog, is likely to continue for much of the rest of the period, with temperatures mostly below normal. However, wintry showers or more persistent snow could affect eastern and southern areas towards the end of the period.

While everyone slags them off, I think they are very conservative about snow and generally when the call it, they really think it'll happen.

Hey, it's not the day after tomorrow, but cold forecast all the same and apparently quite confident.

LSS? This seems to match with your thoughts in the model (brave man...) thread?

Certainly no immeadiate sign of super mild altantic scenarios we fear (although today was quite nice in fact, but better in late march).

Edited January 27, 2010 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

while the model thread blows hot and cold as usual, have the meto not apparently made up their minds?

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 10 Feb 2010:

Cold with overnight frost and ice throughout, but a good deal of dry and bright weather for many parts of the UK by day. However, wintry showers are likely for exposed northeastern parts throughout the period, with a risk of more persistent sleet or snow for some eastern areas at times on Monday. Rain, maybe hill snow, might reach the northwest on Tuesday. Wintry showers may spread further inland towards the end of the week as winds become more northeasterly. The mainly dry weather with frost, ice and possibly fog, is likely to continue for much of the rest of the period, with temperatures mostly below normal. However, wintry showers or more persistent snow could affect eastern and southern areas towards the end of the period.

While everyone slags them off, I think they are very conservative about snow and generally when the call it, they really think it'll happen.

Hey, it's not the day after tomorrow, but cold forecast all the same and apparently quite confident.

LSS? This seems to match with your thoughts in the model (brave man...) thread?

Certainly no immeadiate sign of super mild altantic scenarios we fear (although today was quite nice in fact, but better in late march).

Have you seen the ensemble mean pressure? Nothing like it since '47! -8- -10 upper easterlies locked in for a month in that scenario! http://charts.netwea...slpmean-228.png http://charts.netwea...slpmean-276.png

Reverse zonality - easterlies all the way from Russia to Canada! Truly spoilt for synoptics this year - in previous years this northerly would be met with real optimism and excitement of just seeing some decent frost and low maxima with bits and pieces of snow possible for some,and yet this year we're complaining about lack of snow from it! Anyone want this?? http://www.wetterzen...00119890128.gif http://www.wetterzen...00219890130.gif

Even Cookie wouldn't be too keen as the winds don't look all that exceptional!

LS

edit:Meant to specify that the ensemble mean is unlikely to verify, as it is merely a composite of lots of runs, but it is a good sign in the long run!

Edited January 28, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm