Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 20:

[Polar Side]

Yes, some amazing charts today. I love the look of the Easterly on the ECM, winds from deepest Siberia all the way to Canada.

Things looking rather interesting !

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Edited January 26, 2010 by Polar Side

[Cheggers]

Yes, some amazing charts today. I love the look of the Easterly on the ECM, winds from deepest Siberia all the way to Canada.

Things looking rather interesting !

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

After plucking the courage to go and have a peek in the Model Thread, seems to be chat that if the ECM verified, the last cold spell would seem minor by comparison.

[Mondy]

I don't believe a word of it

[Blizzardo]

This Met Office fax for Sunday looks to be going for a prolonged period of snow for parts of Scotland. We are sitting between the 528 and 510 dam line with a little low slowly dropping North to South down the East coast.

This is how it looks 6 hours later on the GFS.

[GraemeB]

I will NOT get excited by this....

Does the attached fax chart for Saturday, not show some decent activity across Scotland from even then ?

[Guest]

I will NOT get excited by this....

Does the attached fax chart for Saturday, not show some decent activity across Scotland from even then ?

It certainly looks like that Graeme

I would say that even before then we could have some fun, well, at least those of us who live in the north of Scotland

I feel a full scale rampede coming on at some point in the 24 hours.

[GraemeB]

It certainly looks like that Graeme

I would say that even before then we could have some fun, well, at least those of us who live in the north of Scotland

I feel a full scale rampede coming on at some point in the 24 hours.

I give it until the 12z comes out, and if it keeps the same theme, coupled with decent Meto fax charts, NW could very well hit 10 on the Rampede scale.

Wonder if the meto will be issuing some early warnings for Fri/Sat/Sun soon...

[Methuselah]

Like the fax chart. Saturday looks to be a corker!!! That said, it's positively balmy today!

[Guest]

Like the fax chart. Saturday looks to be a corker!!! That said, it's positively balmy today!

Mrs Catch said something interesting earlier, although it's probably just co-incidence. According to her the last cold spell followed a sequence of very foggy/cloudy but chilly then relatively very mild then into very cold here. And this week we've had foggy/cloudy but quite chilly and then relatively very mild (today) and now some possible cold coming.

[Methuselah]

Mrs Catch said something interesting earlier, although it's probably just co-incidence. According to her the last cold spell followed a sequence of very foggy/cloudy but chilly then relatively very mild then into very cold here. And this week we've had foggy/cloudy but quite chilly and then relatively very mild (today) and now some possible cold coming.

Aye, Catch. But, it's a relief not have blue fingers for a change!

I'm getting a tad excited about all those slow-moving fronts over the weekend. With winds W of N, a good dump might well be on the cards???

[Hairy Celt]

mediterranean this morning, the temp has been 9C nearly all night. and now I see w're about to get smothered again just as I've been able to start work properly! have to say I'd prefer these lay-offs in summer.

[Guest]

Aye, Catch. But, it's a relief not have blue fingers for a change!

I'm getting a tad excited about all those slow-moving fronts over the weekend. With winds W of N, a good dump might well be on the cards???

I know this sounds incredibly selfish after the cold month we had from mid-Dec to mid-Jan, but some decent snowfall would really be a nice change. We haven't had a good dump here since March 2006.

Anyway, you can't call a winter "historic" until you've had at least 6 inches of snow in one go and I would like 09/10 to be remembered as snowy, rather than simply cold and dry.

[Snowlover2]

Hi guys

I couldnt get a sledge last time it snowed but can get one now. Is it worth me getting one? dont want to jinx it lol

[Northernlights]

Well its been 8c all night the mildest for a while and a lot of the really stubborn snow patches have melted, probably just clearing the way for the fresh stuff at the weekend? Anyhow it just backs up the fact that it gets milder before a big snowfall. We will see.

Hope the councils are more prepared this time especially if the distant mega cold comes off as the snow at the weekend will probably get a refreeze and be very hard to shift.

[blitzen]

Hi guys

I couldnt get a sledge last time it snowed but can get one now. Is it worth me getting one? dont want to jinx it lol

Hello again SL2.

Just looked at the models and it looks as if we will be in the start of the cold air by lunch time here. A warm sector appears to spoil the party between Thursday lunch and Friday tea though. then it's back again. Weekend does look interesting for those further north ie: Inverness, Aberdeen etc. But being a northerly, the precipitation does appear to slam into the mountains and break up. Leaving the central belt pretty dry and cold. It does however depend on the intensity of the precipitation as to whether it can get up and over the mountains though. All in all, it's looking pretty interesting once again and you never know what can develop along the way. Steve Murr's post on the model thread, although too complcated for me to understand, seems to point to what happens to the system leaving America having an effect here. All to do with the interference of short waves I believe.

[Gilly]

Take a deep breath chaps we are about to step onto that rollercoaster again.........

Will it wont it?? We will see. Lots of lamp post and radar watching ahead!

A dreich cold day 7C but feels a lot colder with a strong wind chill factor .

Hi guys

I couldnt get a sledge last time it snowed but can get one now. Is it worth me getting one? dont want to jinx it lol

Go for it.........your grandchildren will get use of it one day if you dont!!!

[Guest]

Hi guys

I couldnt get a sledge last time it snowed but can get one now. Is it worth me getting one? dont want to jinx it lol

Just go ahead and buy one, the weather will do whatever it wants regardless (although I know where you are coming from )

I finally got round to putting the wee one's sledge away yesterday. Looks like it may need to come back out by the weekend.

[Snooz]

<--- signing back on for the roller coaster -

and another to add to Scottish Skiers prediction method haha.. it's actually quite true SS, I may not read all of the model thread but just watching how busy it is can be an indicator all of itself - and I lolled when you said that

Like the fax chart. Saturday looks to be a corker!!! That said, it's positively balmy today!

Great chart and the positively balmy here too, though it's now very windy too, temp sat around 8c all evening and almost went into double figures (9.6c) this am at around 7:30am.

The NAE is showing snow (north/central) from as early as thur/fri is that right, or mainly high ground only? - and I'm reading about a warm sector somewhere is that still on?

Have been doing a fair bit of driving this week hospital visiting and driving over the Learney (Torphins) it was always white and/or snowing, in other words it was still never very far away.

.. was reading the model thread last night, after reading here first of course! so thanks LS and others who keep it real for us - looks like there's definitely something brewing again - so I am off to get loads of work done in case I need some snow days at the weekend or next week!

excuse if I don't chat until excitement gets too overwhelming, gonna work hard so I can play later - but I am reading..

[Stuart]

I am worry this time i wont see much in the way of snow here due to the winds commeing in from the northwest or the north

[Guest]

I am worry this time i wont see much in the way of snow here due to the winds commeing in from the northwest or the north

I think the experience of the cold spell last time showed that snow can and will pop up from anywhere. We just need to get the cold air in first, some snow will follow for most, if not all, of us

Roughly where in the borders are you? Did you get much snow the last time round?

[Stuart]

Galashiels and yes we did last time over 1 feet of snow

[Blizzardo]

First advisories out. Widespread ice for Scotland Friday morning then this one for Highland, Grampian, Orkney and Shetland:-

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of north and east Scotland on Sunday.

Frequent heavy snow showers affecting northern and eastern Scotland on Sunday are likely to bring significant accumulations of snow in places. Strong winds may also lead to drifting of snow and blizzard conditions, especially over high ground.

Issued at: 1115 Wed 27 Jan

Edited January 27, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Sunny Leith]

Thats what I like about the general model thread. Nothing.

Just kidding :lol:... I love the bi-polar moodswings on there. The older wiser heads are on balance calling it right I think. A possible easterly is still 7-10+ days away, and it could still go belly-up ...but the trend... the potential ... is all in the right general direction for another serious cold-spell.

I don't know how many were watching the December one unfold ... seemed like it was on the cards for 2 weeks on most of the models ... but then there were lots of wobbles and I confess I pretty much gave up on it happening several times (no toys thrown out the pram though). In fact it snowed heavily in many parts of Spain in mid-December before we got ours on Dec 17th ... felt like it was another one of these perverse winter setups that dumps snow anywhere in Europe but here... But once the trend got into the realiable-ish timeframe it became obvious that it was pretty much nailed. And then we had weeks worth of cold, snow and ice.

I expect there will be plenty wobbles this time too - and of course it could still go pear shaped. But as guys like TEITS wisely point out, the trend is our friend.

Interesting times continue !

Edited January 27, 2010 by by-tor

[Stuart]

First advisories out. Widespread ice for Scotland Friday morning then this one for Highland, Grampian, Orkney and Shetland:-

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of north and east Scotland on Sunday.

Frequent heavy snow showers affecting northern and eastern Scotland on Sunday are likely to bring significant accumulations of snow in places. Strong winds may also lead to drifting of snow and blizzard conditions, especially over high ground.

Issued at: 1115 Wed 27 Jan

that will change for sure before sunday

[Northernlights]

Temperature fallen from 8c to 6c in the last couple of hours so we are cooling again, fresh NW wind and occasional drizzly showers. Topping up fuel tanks this afternoon so we are ready for more cold weather. Feed in store for animals should last for 8 weeks before needing to be replenished so by then winter will hopefully be easing and replenishment easier.