Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

Its down to the 00z set to sort this mess out then!

18z GFS T+90: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn901.html

12z UKMO T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

12z ECM T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html

[Bobby]

Undercut already away on the GFS, sticking to its guns. Probably a good run from here.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well 18z is incredibly sticking to its gubns despite my earlier worries.

MUCH better than the euros.

My goodness this is torture,

[andymusic]

Undercut already away on the GFS, sticking to its guns. Probably a good run from here.

Defo - some one's gotta back down though - I've got my money on the GFS

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[on the coast]

Its down to the 00z set to sort this mess out then!

18z GFS T+90: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn901.html

12z UKMO T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

12z ECM T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html

Yep this looks like it could be a good run from now. What a result if the GFS pulls it

out of the bag in the morning.

[Tom D]

Defo - some one's gotta back down though - I've got my money on the GFS

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Haha calm yourself! :lol:

The 18z is going to produce another unbelievable run from here, look at the undercutting at t+108. The tension mounts!

I'd advise people to save the t+90 18z GFS and UKMO t+96 for future... erm... reference (or model bashing depending on which one is right! :lol:)

EDIT:

Might also be worth comparing t+114/120

UKMO 12z

ECM 12z

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-114.png?18 GFS 18z

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[MR EXTREMES]

I have been banned a fair few time's, 99.9% of the time it was because i was basically giving members who was so annoying a good bashing, i speak my mind. And on this forum, speaking your mind gets you banned mate :lol:

well this post is really going to help you.:lol:

sfl i think your find infact the run where seeing now is pretty good still consistent.

but its still knife edge either tomorrow the euros will follow the gfs or the gfs will follow the euros and as confused as i am i dont really know what to make of the outputs today.

but in the tec thread gp has given us and idear i think everythink is a mess one or the other is wrong but id not like to call which one.

as frustrated as i am its rather intresting.

maybe in the next couple of years i will be able to post in a constructive way.

Edited January 30, 2010 by badboy657

[The PIT]

Thing about assemblies only one is right or close and that could just as likely to be a cold one as a mild one. 18 0z coming seemingly at snails pace.

[Bobby]

What a farce this is, the models can't agree on the broad picture at just 96hrs... hardly FI.

Were hints that the GFS would stick to its guns because of the big cluster of very cold runs on the ECM ensembles... if we get the undercut we're in business... but it's all or nothing because if we don't it could be Bartletts and Euro highs and SWlys and all sorts of ghastly ideas.

[SMU]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-126.png?18

heavy snow edging into the south.... day 5

S

[andymusic]

What a farce this is, the models can't agree on the broad picture at just 96hrs... hardly FI.

Were hints that the GFS would stick to its guns because of the big cluster of very cold runs on the ECM ensembles... if we get the undercut we're in business... but it's all or nothing because if we don't it could be Bartletts and Euro highs and SWlys and all sorts of ghastly ideas.

It has to be the unique nature of the set up we have - blocking!

[SP1986]

Having just looked at more detail what happens at +72 hour, its all going to hinge on whether the high ridging into Greenland from NW Russia develops into a Greenland High, having looked further and looked at the way it evolves, if that is the important 'cog' in what decides this then my money is on the Euros because the GFS is banking on a little ridge of high pressure from NW Russia developing into a Greenland High - that is going to be a really big ask, but it's one the GFS keeps bringing up so who knows.

The most plausible evolution is that on the high pressure ridging into the Greenland area to retreat I think

I never saw this until now really.

[cold snap]

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-2-126.png?18

heavy snow edging into the south.... day 5

S

18Z is a excelent run.infact its EPIC.but its very much on its own now compare to the other big models.

Edited January 30, 2010 by cold snap

[Cloud 10]

The gfs 18z soldiers on with its developing cold pattern.

High pressure to NW and NE,jet energy heading south resulting in low pressure undercutting the block leaving most of us in an increasingly cold SE flow.

[Tom D]

Hold on... what's happening to the Siberian high at t+144

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-144.png?18 18z

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-150.png?12 12z

Same time, less link-up happening between the Greenland high and the Siberian high. This may open the door for the Atlantic low to barge it's way in.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Ben_Cambs]

So the GFS sticks to its guns.... so far anyway How the Euro models react to this again in the morning I dont know, and wheres Nick Sussex, Im sure he has something to say about this, or has he chucked his laptop of the window

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snowman0697

[robert]

Tuesday is the day you should all be closely model watching for the upcoming event and it's when the fun really starts!

[Jason M]

Its down to the 00z set to sort this mess out then!

18z GFS T+90: http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn901.html

12z UKMO T+96: http://www.wzkarten....cs/Rukm961.html

12z ECM T+96: http://www.wzkarten....cs/Recm961.html

The crucial part here may well be the fact that GFS is at +90 hours rather than +96. Were getting close enough to the key point now that the 6 hours additional data has significant relevance.

METO and ECM for me have lacked consistency over recent days where as GFS (whilst it may still be wrong) seems to keep charting a very similar course over the short / medium term.

Another point is that METO does not give us enough info. The model may be one of the 'big three' but based on what we see its not really much more use than JMA / NOGAPS.

My money is on GFS although if I'm wrong life goes on!

Regards

Jason

[The PIT]

Does look like GFS is sticking too it's guns. Funny a few weeks ago most on here were saying GFS was junk because it wasn't showing what people wanted. At the moment it's very much the odd one out but it's the good guy.

Going to be interesting to what GP thinks about this.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

That blasted atlantic wont leave it alone will it.The high forces the first deep low SE and then we get a bomb.

If the atlantic was a bit quiter we'd be in the money.

[nick sussex]

That blasted atlantic wont leave it alone will it.The high forces the first deep low SE and then we get a bomb.

If the atlantic was a bit quiter we'd be in the money.

I wouldn't worry about the Atlantic at that stage, theres still the concern regarding the misery model well before then. So unfortunately no resolution to the easterly saga this evening, there surely must be agreement tomorrow morning!

[andymusic]

That blasted atlantic wont leave it alone will it.The high forces the first deep low SE and then we get a bomb.

If the atlantic was a bit quiter we'd be in the money.

it's been quiet since november pretty much - i suppose it's getting a bit riled now

[Lewis]

Whats so good about the 18z? We never get any very cold upper from the East, and the Atlantic is pushing East, knocking on the door basically.

[PB22]

Plenty of blocking to the north, northeast and east, but we're too close to the Atlantic:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1682.html

[Bobby]

GFS not so good further on into the run with the block not really holding but I don't think there's much point looking that far ahead when there's no agreement at T +96.