Model Output Discussion

[Bobby]

Seems the reason the atlantic breaks though on the GFS 18z is because there's nowhere near as impressive height rises and blocking to the North. 12z run was full of height and pressure rises to the North, now both are lower. All those lovely yellows from the 12z get replaced with more blues, dare I say it more like the UKMO?

[Lewis]

im sorry but are you serious or is this a joke post.

Of course it's serious, i'm only pointing out what the models are showing.

It's clear tonights GFS is backtracking towards an agreement with the euro's. It's a different evolution yes, but all the same it's doing the same with regards the block. The 18z is very very messy. And to be honest, it's still pointless looking outside the t72 - t96 range, which really is pretty contradicting as most members some how find it fine too look upto t200+ earlier in the week because the models was showing a huge easterly, yet when the pattern/signals change and you get the GFS know backtracking, people won't ponder into the medium to long range, weird ay? wonder why that is. Because it's not what people want to see.

Of course things can change.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Having said that the latest bbc 5 dayer seems to go with the ukmo output 10 degrees forcast for here on Thursday!

[The PIT]

Of course it's serious, i'm only pointing out what the models are showing.

It's clear tonights GFS is backtracking towards an agreement with the euro's. It's a different evolution yes, but all the same it's doing the same with regards the block. The 18z is very very messy. And to be honest, it's still pointless looking outside the t72 - t96 range, which really is pretty contradicting as most members some how find it fine too look upto t200+ earlier in the week because the models was showing a huge easterly, yet when the pattern/signals change and you get the GFS know backtracking, people won't ponder into the medium to long range, weird ay? wonder why that is. Because it's not what people want to see.

Of course things can change.

You're as drunk as the 18 0z.

I suppose it could be right but I don't believe it somehow.

[aspire27]

Next thursday temps in double figures. No point chasing a cold spell into march....pointless.

[MR EXTREMES]

To me the GFS 18z tonight is merely starting its backtrack towards the European models, further confirmed by the FAX charts just released. Its now looking odds on for the Atlantic influence to be our main player by the end of next week and this episode will be remembered as yet another what could have been. Once again it shows that the UKMO model must never be dismissed. It never really brought the easterly idea, and although its probably being too progressive tonight, it looks like it will be nearer the mark in the end.

For easterly hunters, check out the 18z GFS beyond T+324!

starts good then just gave up.

gp looks like being on the money and you cant take that away from him hes pretty dam good at what he does as are a fair few on here.

oh well peeps not intresting anymore cooling climate i dont know how you can be so confident and i really think your wrong and just holding on to the little bit of excitement we had earlier today.

ofcoarse im gutted and so are many more perhapes we expect to much from the uk.

just goes to show how much cold in this country is a fine line.

anyway im off to but some wellies lol.

[Lewis]

You're as drunk as the 18 0z.

I suppose it could be right but I don't believe it somehow.

I'm not drunk at all! I'm just stating the obvious mate.

Regarding the word "drunk" it's my birthday tomorrow, so i will be from mid-day onwards, so a little warning, you don't want me to be online lol!

[Buxton Codge]

Tonights models paint a horror story for cold weather fans. At least we have a few snow showers here this evening to keep me happy

[Tom D]

Can people stop being so final and dismissive posting double figure temperatures etc. UKMO is the only one that gets near to that it is is unsupported by even the ECM, which itself it halfway between the GFS and UKMO. ECM gets to a mild solution eventually but not after an uncertain early period.

With any sort of high pressure to our east and north/northwest the Atlantic will struggle to dominate for a long period even I've learned that and I've only been watching things since early December.

It is safe to say it is remaining cold for the next couple of days, anything after Monday/Tuesday is largely undetermined.

EDIT: The mean for the 18z is actually better for cold at t+120 than the op so many members have a better set up with what looks like the link-up stronger.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-120.png?18

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[SMU]

Id like to mention the growing probability of heavy snow moving back into the NE & Eastern Scotland in the day 3 range-

t 78 GFS mean-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-78.png?18

Good charts there for that neck of the woods.. for those that have missed it-

114 ensemble mean- Better than the 12z-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-114.png?18

Control-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-132.png?18

Also some pointless posts in this thread tonight

S

Edited January 30, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Secret Society]

I'm not drunk at all! I'm just stating the obvious mate.

Regarding the word "drunk" it's my birthday tomorrow, so i will be from mid-day onwards, so a little warning, you don't want me to be online lol!

Edited January 30, 2010 by Secret Society

[swilliam]

Interesting 18z, I suspect many will cry oh dear following the euros, except that's not really true, as the run gets past the period where it all falls apart on the UKMO and ECM, then it drops the cold pattern only to pick it up again towards the end of the run. I don't know whether some sort of BFTE is about to emerge, but I still think there's a lot of mileage in the tank to keep all but the most pessimistic interested, fascinating stuff in my book.

I agree with this - we may not get the roaring easterly that most of us would like but the model watching is fascinating. One point though is that whichever scenario plays out do not slate the losing model for the next few weeks. The differences at t72-96 are quite small but the effect us massive.

[Secret Society]

Tonights models paint a horror story for cold weather fans. At least we have a few snow showers here this evening to keep me happy

yes its not been a cold snowy winter so far has it?

yawn

[PB22]

yes but that makes the fax an outlier many twists and turns to come

Afraid not. The FAX charts have the most important thing of all...human input!

[The Eagle]

The control run is pretty awesome so far. Better ensembles overall. In fairness the 18z is very good up to 120 but then loses the plot.

[Lewis]

Afraid not. The FAX charts have the most important thing of all...human input!

Good point, totally agree.

But you know what happens to most things when we have a little human input haha.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Afraid not. The FAX charts have the most important thing of all...human input!

Don't the fax charts change quite dramatically too, just like the computerised charts? I still think this setup is not finalised yet gfs on thursday still looks promising to me even if the ukmo says something completely different.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Damp and dreary]

Just wait and see the UKMO and ECM will do a U-Turn mark my words. Thursday into Friday next week will see some intense snow for a large part of the country, you have to look at the bigger picture models. Lot's and lot's of to come.

For goodness sake there is a lot of nonsense on here tonight. Who knows what is going to happen in X amount of days time, no one it seems, not even the models. But comments like this are beyond a joke. I havnt seen any backup to what you say on here, spirits from beyond maybe? all this does is clog up the usually informative posts with absolute twaddle. Sorry to have such an outburst, yes i want it to be nice and snowy but the comments in the last day or two are driving me and im sure many others to dispair. Rant over, and i hope it gets back to the usual suspects speaking on here only soon!

[shiver]

Afraid not. The FAX charts have the most important thing of all...human input!

afraid not they have just coppied the ecm which was an outlier

[NorthantsSnow]

yes its not been a cold snowy winter so far has it?

yawn

It hasn't been that snowy everywhere. I've only experienced 4 proper snow events, none of which produced more than 5cm. Parts of the NE saw just under triple that over the course of a few hours last night!

So yep it's been cold but I think many in central England are crying out for a major snow event to make this winter truly memorable. We haven't had one yet unlike areas further north, east and south.

Edited January 30, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Duncan McAlister]

No point chasing a cold spell into march....pointless.

Not the case at all - see mid Feb-mid March 2006. Can get some v cold temperatures in early March.

[SP1986]

afraid not they have just coppied the ecm which was an outlier

and of course you're the authority on all things Meteorological? The Met office may be struggling, but if they are I doubt anyone else (including you, and me, and anyone else for that matter), has a chance at all of understand what will happen!

[cold snap]

FAX charts out, and they go with the ECM model tonight:

T+96: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif

T+120: http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

I can't see much hope there for an easterly from that T+120 chart.The UKMO 6 - 15 dayer will surely catch up tomorrow now.

Oh dear looks like we are coming to the end of this saga.

GFS OZ Final nail in coffin i would of thought now

[reef]

A new thread here:

[igloo]

The control run is pretty awesome so far. Better ensembles overall. In fairness the 18z is very good up to 120 but then loses the plot.

im afraid it doesnt lose the plot it just follows the euros looks odds on mild windy and lots of rain by midweek something we havent seen much this winter