Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

Overall poor output again this evening IMO, and once again any decent eye candy remains firmly entrenched in FI, as it has done for several days now.

The UKMO shows no sign of backing down, and it will be very interesting to see the T+96 and T+120 FAX charts later tonight. Clearly there are substantial differences between the models as soon as T+96 and these will surely be resolved on the overnight runs which will help determine where we are headed.

The GFS ensembles are not as cold this evening across southern Britain, and thus the trend looks to be away from an easterly outbreak to be honest:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

They are more promising further north though:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

As for the ECM ensembles, on the face of it they may look good with the majority of the ensemble pack going for a cold spell

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden

But I am not at all encouraged when I see the contol and operational runs following close to each other. I believe they are also run at a lower resolution than the ensemble pack and thus are more likely to be "on the ball" so to speak.

In summary then, I believe we are as far away from an easterly developing as ever, and I am not at all enthusastic in any way about the model output this evening in this sense I'm afraid.

[Bobby]

Here are the extended ensembles for the 12z ecm.

The operational is looking a bit silly compared to the ensemble mean and especially the control run!

Notice how there is a big tight cluster of colder runs at the bottom and a lot of milder ones but not much in the middle... reflecting the "all or nothing" shot that was mentioned earlier I think. I expect those colder runs have the Atlantic undercutting the block as the GFS shows. So I think it could go either way as there is a lot of those runs showing a cold undercutting set up like the GFS, maybe 50%?

Edited January 30, 2010 by Barb-

[Lewis]

18z rolling out in a few mins, what will this run show?

Will it bring back the Beasterly, or will it give us an Atlantic dominated pattern, if it's the latter i would rather tonights output just come out with it and put us out of our misery, i think some sense of realism is needed in this thread, the reason why there's so much arguing in here over the past few days is because, 90% of members are too stubborn stuck in their own fantasy island, and just won't accept what the models are showing, having being a member for 5 years, i have learnt that members become so bitter and aggresive when they don't see what they want. I think the true name for them is "plastic model fans" if nothing looks interesting you won't see them for months, they'll come back, ramp it up and be stubborn etc, and then bugger off again lol.

Take steve for example, a good ECM run the other day with the GFS in agreement, he comes and talks about getting skii's ready for his area, a downgrade and he's no where to be seen.

If we all respect each others inputs, and purely base our comments/input on what the models are truely showing "not, i sense it in my water, or i know from experience talk etc..." this thread will be a better place.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[xerxes]

Just seen the ECM run and I must say I did not expect both Euro models to struggle so

much with this upcoming pattern change, what a coup for the GFS model.

Having said that it is only the period t96 to t144 where they are misinterpreting the

movement of the energy in the Atlantic and this is having a knock on effect for the

rest of the run.

They should be fully on board by the end of tomorrow though.

I hope you're right CC. As posted earlier, the ECM run was a big mild outlier in the latter stages. I guess that fact that there is such disagreement is a good thing based on recent winters where we needed straws. The Meto update will make interesting reading again tomorrow!

[Mark Bayley]

ECM long term ensembles still good, the mean slightly milder however still below freezing. We shall have to wait for the London Ensembles for a clearer picture

0z

12z

A few more milder scenarios, not much change overall though

The control does follow the OP for a while but then goes much colder, especially towards the of the run!

[Mac_SE]

The main features of the current set up is a strong Siberian block trying to push sw and a strong jet stream, the models have to decide where the main energy goes from the jet, south or north, in these situations theres a fine line between success and failure for the easterly. The GFS, JMA and GEM take more energy south, the UKMO and ECM take more energy north,if you look at the ECM at 144hrs you can see two ways forward, with as we've seen major differences to the UK. The block wants to move sw but theres a small window of opportunity for the block to ridge west aswell and influence the UK, once the jet energy heads north and over the advancing block its game up for cold as the jet will sink this, so even though theres a negative AO you'll have the high sinking and a separate ridge heading west towards Greenland but the UK stuck underneath with low pressure heading east.

Theres really no middle ground in this type of set up, so its either mild sw'erlies or cold east to se'lies. Sorry I'm rambling but in a nutshell the reason for the sudden switches is more energy being pushed eastwards and where the models decide to take most of this, north or south, hope that helps.

Thanks for taking time out to reply Nick. Much appreciated.

So, given what you've said, that it's essentially a knife-edge situation, is it not the case that the next run could re-introduce the easterly set-up? And if that's true, why the hysteria shown by people here who must know this?

Edited January 30, 2010 by Mac_SE

[Thundersquall]

Just had a look at the 12Z run from GFS. Wow - didn't expect to see charts like this!

Basically temains cold until end of run, with snow trying to edge in from the SW

every now and then! :)

Edited January 30, 2010 by Thundersquall

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Overall poor output again this evening IMO, and once again any decent eye candy remains firmly entrenched in FI, as it has done for several days now.

The UKMO shows no sign of backing down, and it will be very interesting to see the T+96 and T+120 FAX charts later tonight. Clearly there are substantial differences between the models as soon as T+96 and these will surely be resolved on the overnight runs which will help determine where we are headed.

The GFS ensembles are not as cold this evening across southern Britain, and thus the trend looks to be away from an easterly outbreak to be honest:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

They are more promising further north though:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

As for the ECM ensembles, on the face of it they may look good with the majority of the ensemble pack going for a cold spell

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden

But I am not at all encouraged when I see the contol and operational runs following close to each other. I believe they are also run at a lower resolution than the ensemble pack and thus are more likely to be "on the ball" so to speak.

In summary then, I believe we are as far away from an easterly developing as ever, and I am not at all enthusastic in any way about the model output this evening in this sense I'm afraid.

Well GFS is a global model Paul and the operationals have been very very consistent,this is direct contrast to ecm which looks to have gone downhill since the 'upgrade',im not saying that b/c its awful tonight it really has been terribly inconsistent.

It will be interesting to hear NAAO discussions tonight about which model they prefer.The FAX charts will be poor IMO the exeter guys will go with either ukmo or ecm which are both poor for the UK.

0Z runs will be pivotal.

[cold snap]

Overall poor output again this evening IMO, and once again any decent eye candy remains firmly entrenched in FI, as it has done for several days now.

The UKMO shows no sign of backing down, and it will be very interesting to see the T+96 and T+120 FAX charts later tonight. Clearly there are substantial differences between the models as soon as T+96 and these will surely be resolved on the overnight runs which will help determine where we are headed.

The GFS ensembles are not as cold this evening across southern Britain, and thus the trend looks to be away from an easterly outbreak to be honest:

http://www.wzkarten...._London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten....chester_ens.png

They are more promising further north though:

http://www.wzkarten....berdeen_ens.png

As for the ECM ensembles, on the face of it they may look good with the majority of the ensemble pack going for a cold spell

http://www.weerplaza...im.asp?r=midden

But I am not at all encouraged when I see the contol and operational runs following close to each other. I believe they are also run at a lower resolution than the ensemble pack and thus are more likely to be "on the ball" so to speak.

In summary then, I believe we are as far away from an easterly developing as ever, and I am not at all enthusastic in any way about the model output this evening in this sense I'm afraid.

Great post.

Maybe the 18Z will give us a chance.im praying for this now.all eyes down guys

What has been the worse model day for many weeks.

[Marcus J]

Just had a look at the 12Z run from GFS. Wow - didn't expect to see charts like this!

Basically temains cold until end of run, with snow trying to edge in from the SW every now and then!

This is my first post on here so go careful.

Trying to find my way around the site so any tips would be good. Just come from another weather site, and feel the time is right to try pastures new.

Looking forward to seeing the 18z, be interesting to see if GFS sticks to his guns

[SP1986]

The 18z will stick to its guns, I can't see much change occurring. It may not be as 'good' as the 12z was but I do think the southeasterly theme will be maintain, I can't see any other way. If it did back down then that's when for me things start getting a little more complicated, but I just cannot see it happening, not tonight anyway.

[Tom D]

18z sticking to its guns! No pesky shortwave near Ireland by t+90/96 so be seen and the siberian high is slightly further west too!

A great run to follow shortly I'm sure.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looks like 18z is moving towrds the euros at 66h.The high is getting pushed SE towrds the SE of the UK just like

ukmo.

Not getting a good vibe from this run guys.

[robert]

Robert,Well i truly believe that you are right i think the u turn is happening just not showing on models (YET).

Yes indeed and currently here it's snowing huge flakes road covered a little plus

[Lewis]

Finally, the 18z puts us out our misery, expect an Atlantic dominated run. Love cold weather, and it's a shame it's not panned out.

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like 18z is moving towrds the euros at 66h.The high is getting pushed SE towrds the SE of the UK just like

ukmo.

Not getting a good vibe from this run guys.

How can you tell so early in the run? Hasn't even gone past 78hours yet!

[SMU]

Finally, the 18z puts us out our misery, expect an Atlantic dominated run. Love cold weather, and it's a shame it's not panned out.

Lewis how many times have you been banned??- going for a hatric??

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-84.png?18 Atlantic really crashing through at 84- not

S

Edited January 30, 2010 by Steve Murr

[PB22]

Not much difference between the GFS, UKMO and ECM at T+72, as would be expected. Now entering the critical period on the 18z. Incidentally, I believe the 18z runs of the last few days have been the most bullish about any potential easterly - so we could get an idea of where we stand after tonight's run.

[cooling climate]

I hope you're right CC. As posted earlier, the ECM run was a big mild outlier in the latter stages. I guess that fact that there is such disagreement is a good thing based on recent winters where we needed straws. The Meto update will make interesting reading again tomorrow!

Yeah there will be know where to hide if I'm not lol.

The synoptic differences are not that big but in terms of weather there huge.

[Ben_Cambs]

No real change so far from 12z

[conor123]

The two Scandinavian lows are both further NNW at 78 hours, everything in the atlantic seems roughly in the same place though with the milder air a smidge further north but still completely says no to all Euros at 90 hours...

[Lakes Tom]

Finally, the 18z puts us out our misery, expect an Atlantic dominated run. Love cold weather, and it's a shame it's not panned out.

Ehh? T72 12Z and 18Z are almost identical. It may pan out that you are right, but not from changes you have noticed in the early phases of the 18z run...

[on the coast]

Looking ok so far? Going the way of the 12z maybe.

[andymusic]

GFS 18z is sticking to it's guns - no change

[Lewis]

Lewis how many times have you been banned??- going for a hatric??

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-84.png?18 Atlantic really crashing through at 84- not

S

I have been banned a fair few time's, 99.9% of the time it was because i was basically giving members who was so annoying a good bashing, i speak my mind. And on this forum, speaking your mind gets you banned mate