Model Output Discussion

[Mark Bayley]

Its a shocker...

BFTP

It sure is!

The T216 chart is horrible

A poor ECM tonight. Seems the easterly risk is diminishing. Will await the ensembles before commenting further. But it doesn't look good!

And my personal fav Is that the 10c 850hpa i see!

Edited January 30, 2010 by mark bayley

[Bobby]

So much for Feb 8th

Better buy charcoal briquettes from B+Q not a shovel

LOL. Don't forget a Hawaiian t-shirt from Matalan.

Seriously though... the ECM/UKMO could well end this winter, if they came off. If a Euro high gets established as being suggested by those 2 then well... worst case scenario for the British winter. Euro highs can and often do get stuck and last for weeks, going to be very hard to get rid of. Looks like the atlantic wants revenge after being imprisoned away for so long.

However... uncertainty is still huge and a potent cold snowy spell is still possible. Confidence in this does seem to be draining away somewhat though I feel.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Barb-

[PubliusEnigma]

Oh no ecm is really really bad.That 192h chart has aor coming from North Africa for the SE?????

Was there any run like this on the 0z ens?

The 00z 192z had a south easterly over the SE. the 12z has moved the easterly nearly 2000 miles south east,

so its sitting over Crimea and the black sea. Oh well folks if you want the easterly thats where you need to jet off to..

Personally I still firmly believe we have a couple of weeks of zonal muck from next week, before the cold returns

around 21st or so (3rd week) Right Im off out for a beer to drown the sorrows.

[TEITS]

Whats amazing is the 0Z was way warmer than the ensemble mean and yet the 12Z is even warmer. If the 12Z verifies this means the ensembles are a waste of time and you may aswell just follow the operationals.

After viewing the UKMO/ECM you would of thought that its game over. However why do I have this nagging feeling that we haven't seen the end of these drastic changes between the models.

Some may think im straw clutching but I actually feel the GFS is closer to the mark wrt to the LP undercutting and SE,lys veering to E,lys. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the 18Z GFS continues with the trend and tomorrow mornings UKMO/ECM are much better.

Thinking about it the ECM/UKMO couldn't be much worse!

Edited January 30, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Buxton Codge]

LOL. Don't forget an Hawaiian t-shirt from Matalan.

Seriously though... the ECM/UKMO could well end this winter, if they came off. If a Euro high gets established as being suggested by those 2 then well... worst case scenario for the British winter. Euro highs can and often do get stuck and last for weeks, going to be very hard to get rid off. Looks like the atlantic wants revenge after being imprisoned for so long.

Great post

[derrylynne]

Seems the charts have gone from the best charts ever for cold weather fans - to a general agreement more or less binning the easterly - unless you look way into fantasy land. It certainly looks at least from next week for a short time it is going to be milder. Not warm of course by any standards - but nothing in the way of snow. I do though appreciate the models have struggled with the current synoptics and the cold air over europe - but am sure that the easterly were a dream. Let's be honest though - how often has the promise of an easterly come off? Time for change - but I doubt it will happen....

[Wilks]

Hmmm oh dear better get the seeds ready for the garden

One word sums this chart up...... Awesome! Bring it on!!! Let's have an early spring I'm fed up of winter now - had plenty of snow, more than the last 7 years put together and I'm done with it now. Time for a warm up.

[Ben_Cambs]

Personally I dont think that 12z ECM will come off at all, a very mild run, I should think the ensembles will be cooler, so I expect a slightly better UKMO/ECM tomorrow

[The Eagle]

The primary reason for my disappointment is the the fact it is the ECM. Never mind the UKMO, if the ECM is not showing it then it ain't going to happen. Be interesting to see the ensembles but as far as im concerned im now treating this Easterly as not going to happen. I hope it changes back but that's unlikely now. I won't be kept from sleeping tonight by tomorrow's potential output - that's for sure! I think like most now I will only have an inquisitive glance at the models tomorrow not expecting anything too dramatic.

Edited January 30, 2010 by The Eagle

[Snowyowl9]

The only good thing about T192 is for a hot humid S-ly plume in summer to bring thunderstorms,next 2 chart would just bring the inevitable atlantic back in time.

[swfc]

ECM is total rubbish past about 120 hours IMO - by 192 it's bringing a rapid thaw across Scandinavia which has been extremely cold all winter and has had deep embedded cold for absolutely ages - simply won't happen. I think they need to take a look at their upgraded model.

Why will it not happen.the ukmo output wasnt going to happen but it looks to be close to the mark.The embedded cold is always going to get pushed away eventually is it not.Very big let down today if im honest.

[Frosty.]

Could be some flooding next week if the ecm & ukmo verify, western and northern britain in particular would be badly hit with very heavy rain, especially on western upslopes combined by rapid snow melt from the higher hills in northern england and scotland which have had snowcover since before christmas, very sad but this is the united kingdom, not poland!

[PubliusEnigma]

Hmmm oh dear better get the seeds ready for the garden

Expect the MO 6-15 dayer tomorrow to dramatically change to mild and above average temps for around 7-9 days time.

What a U turn, with the GFS holding its head in shame..

[NorthantsSnow]

ahhhh You'll all be happy tomorrow when the easterly reappears on the ECM and UKMO! (momentarily of course)

Was this really necessary Stephen? It would appear you are enjoying the downgrades and subsequent fallout a little too much. Of course the model output and the various twists and turns between runs are going to promote different emotions among members, this didn't really need highlighting nor is the condescending tone helpful. Perhaps a more considered view might be of greater value at this time.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Last one from me this evening.

No point in taking the ECM or any of the other models at exact face value tonight. In terms of the pattern the ECM is, actually, a credible one.

Note from the NH maps that this is still a -AO pattern - it is the orientation of the low in the western/central atlantic that dictates the pattern. Th west based -NAO that GP has mentioned is there to see. Much depends on how this interaction sets up. The UKMO looks overdone and tries to kill of the logical underlying pattern in terms of the MMW etc and other background factors that just doesn't make it add up. That leaves the cold snowy GFS or the 'man in the middle' southerly ECM. However both these models show a -AO and a -NAO. The ops of respective models are just showing different solutions. One undercuts the high with an east based NAO, the other one sits the low further west and pushes atlantic air ahead of it on an unfavourable axis. Much as often happens with a west based -NAO.

Is the ECM too progressive with the west based NAO or is GFS to slow to respond to a new signal?

Although the chances of a cold snowy easterly may have taken a step backwards, it is not the end of prospects for cold weather yet. First and foremost there is complete disagreement between the main models from very early on.

We go from there.

[guitarnutter]

What a chart

[LomondSnowstorm]

Whats amazing is the 0Z was way warmer than the ensemble mean and yet the 12Z is even warmer. If the 12Z verifies this means the ensembles are a waste of time and you may aswell just follow the operationals.

After viewing the UKMO/ECM you would of thought that its game over. However why do I have this nagging feeling that we haven't seen the end of these drastic changes between the models.

Some may think im straw clutching but I actually feel the GFS is closer to the mark wrt to the LP undercutting and SE,lys veering to E,lys. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the 18Z GFS continues with the trend and tomorrow mornings UKMO/ECM are much better.

Thinking about it the ECM/UKMO couldn't be much worse!

I don't honestly understand how both the ECM and UKMO can show what appears to be something which is totally out of keeping with the background signals. I just don't get it. None of the ensembles look that mild, and the ECM up to 96 hours isn't too bad, but the trough tilts completely the wrong way after that and we end up in southerlies. I just don't see how that is going to happen, I really don't!

LS

[TEITS]

Never mind the UKMO, if the ECM is not showing it then it ain't going to happen.

Didn't the ECM have a poor set of runs during Dec which of course returned back to a cold output.

Im a disappointed as everyone. However lets not just remember past disappointments but also remember the models can return to a cold outlook because we have seen this happen twice already this winter.

My confidence in an E,ly has dipped this evening but I still wouldn't make any assumptions just yet.

[shiver]

Expect the MO 6-15 dayer tomorrow to dramatically change to mild and above average temps for around 7-9 days time.

What a U turn, with the GFS holding its head in shame..

errrr it hasnt happend yet we are talking about charts in lala land there will be loads of changes yet

[Altostratus]

As expected, huge variations beyond T+96. This is the key period and has a huge effect on later developments. It is such a fine balancing act that it could go either way. Little chance of a middle ground IMHO – it will either turn very cold or very mild. Given the situation, it would be hard to break out of either of these patterns once they’ve set in. Looking over this evening’s outputs you’d have to say odds are growing for a mild future as opposed to cold. We are approaching T+72 now, so time is also running out for complete flips. If the GFS is showing something similar to the UKMO or ECM tomorrow, then unfortunately it’s probably game over.

[Bolton67]

Personally I dont think that 12z ECM will come off at all, a very mild run, I should think the ensembles will be cooler, so I expect a slightly better UKMO/ECM tomorrow

Hi snowman, sorry mate but you are now clutching at straws.

ECM has just backed up the UKMO.

Tis looking like game over i'm afraid.

[Snowfan50]

Damn what a heartbraker that chart is, i really cant stand mild swlys, it really gets me down.

[swfc]

Was this really necessary Stephen? It would appear you are enjoying the downgrades and subsequent fallout a little too much. Of course the model output and the various twists and turns between runs are going to promote different emotions among members, this didn't really need highlighting nor is the condescending tone helpful. Perhaps a more considered view might be of greater value at this time.

oh come on for gods sake its only weather not life and death give the man a break.I love cold weather ete but lighten up a bit man.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Key timeframe= 48-96 hours. Subtle differences in synoptics within this timeframe IMO of course, will either make or break the rest of this winter. Yes FI is about t48 at the moment because it is from and around this timeframe that synoptics will ultimately dictate which way we go. Knife edge stuff ATM and the ECM could just have easily followed a cold solution as much as it has followed a mild one, it's just coincidence IMO that has resulted in these mild op runs. Small changes in the short term will most deffinately equate to major ones in the medium to long term.

[Buxton Codge]

18z GFS will fall in line with the Europeans tonight. You have heard it here first!

February is going to be the warmest month of this winter