Model Output Discussion

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Well we see a west based -NAO on the ECM t168.

The orientation of the low is not good as shown, but is it the right one?

Note the heights appearing over Greenland.

Jan 1969 anyone?

Edited January 30, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Iceberg]

Flip what I just said 2 mins ago. I'll remove the egg and say that the 168 ECM is dire.

All is not lost, but the ECM needs to lose the high pressure over the med in the 120-144 time range.

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?30-0 Maybe?

Not liking that 168 chart....

[Matty M]

Well there you have it.

ECM looks actually very mild at 168hrs

oh well we did get quite a cold blast this winter. i suppose the last 2 disappointments illustrate how lucky we were.

[SP1986]

To be honest situated where we are in Europe it's difficult at the best times to get good powerful easterly, it happens but it's not easy, because obviously it needs to get this far west, and it's this difficulty that seems to be showing in the models at the moment.

Edit: 168 on ECM seems to almost have a 'B word', although whether this is technically true or not remains to be seen (I dont think itll pan out like this anyway, necessarily)

[Snowstorm1]

Right three points from me

1 - 72hr and 96hr charts from the ECM are more towards the GFS than the UKMO.

2 - 120hr+ is FI

3 - Until all models agree this isnt sorted by a long shot and just wait to the ensembles come out.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

That ecm is a major kick in the goolies.

The 168h chart in particular shows southerlies flooding north.Syrely an outlier on its ens set?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Right three points from me

1 - 72hr and 96hr charts are more towards the gfs than the ukmo.

2 - 120hr+ is FI

3 - Until all models agree this isnt sorted by a long shot and just wait to the ensembles come out.

Agreed. But if the ensembles are siding with the ECM, then I'm afraid it could well be game over. Slight changes are going to make big differences in the medium term, and the models look far from settled on any solution.

edit: ECM +192 is absolutely dire http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-192.GIF?30-0

Edited January 30, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[PubliusEnigma]

ouch!

only one run though

oh dear oh dear...

Edited January 30, 2010 by PubliusEnigma

[John Snow]

Game, set and match I think

Needed the ECM to come on board with the GFS and it hasn't and is siding more and more with the UKMO post +96

The GFS would cut off the entire country but it is destined to be nothing more than dreaming of Angelina Jolie while Pat Butcher is naked next to you

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM at T+192 even worse!

[Nath]

Only 1 thing is certain and that is that 168h charts will not be what the weather is in 168 hours. Not even close even if you could have all the worlds pcs hooked up and CPUs running at 100% at the models disposal.

The models are guides as to likely weather patterns, but as I have seen in my 3 years on NetWeather things "set in stone" can change dramatically even at 24 or 48 hours!!

As my limited knowledge sees it there is a trend away from severe easterlies at the moment, but I really do think it it still more uncertain than the usual uncertainty about what will happen later next week.

[Bobby]

ECM is horrific from +168+ and now to +192, early spring.

[remymartin]

Hmmm oh dear better get the seeds ready for the garden

Edited January 30, 2010 by remymartin

[The PIT]

Looking like the wished easterly is to be placed in the recycle bin. ECM closer to UKMO and in deep FI is preferring more a south westerly approach. Of course the easterly was always in deep FI or FI so was very unlikely to happen anyway which also means that the projected milder spell could still be modified somewhat.

GP's mild feb could still on the cards.

[John Snow]

So much for Feb 8th

Better buy charcoal briquettes from B+Q not a shovel

[Cheshire Freeze]

Certainly some horrid charts on view tonight if you are a fan of cold and snow

[SP1986]

ahhhh You'll all be happy tomorrow when the easterly reappears on the ECM and UKMO! (momentarily of course)

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Oh no ecm is really really bad.That 192h chart has aor coming from North Africa for the SE?????

Was there any run like this on the 0z ens?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think the ECM ensembles will be telling tonight. All is not necessarily lost wrt the easterly if they maintain their cold stance

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hmmm oh dear better get the seeds ready for the garden

just hope its dry, 15°C and dry way better than cooler temps and wet, could be heading for an exceptionally mild feb, I shouldnt have changed my Feb cet to 4.2°C, was 7.1°C,

2 against 1 now, dread GFS 00Z, will show mild most likely

Edited January 30, 2010 by mark forster 630

[NorthantsSnow]

I think the ECM might actually be worse than the UKMO which was an eventuality I wasn't expecting! However it's fair to say both models are rather different in their evolution. Both though are now in firm agreement that an easterly will not occur over the British Isles in the next 10 days. And I find when the Euros go against the GFS in this way, it's only a matter of time usually until the GFS backs down. I fear the GFS is having another one of its very dire episodes given how bullish it has been about the height rises and subsequent easterlies throughout the vast majority of its output.

Overall more chance of Murray overcoming the Fed express tomorrow than this easterly occurring as things stand.

[The PIT]

Only 1 thing is certain and that is that 168h charts will not be what the weather is in 168 hours. Not even close even if you could have all the worlds pcs hooked up and CPUs running at 100% at the models disposal.

The models are guides as to likely weather patterns, but as I have seen in my 3 years on NetWeather things "set in stone" can change dramatically even at 24 or 48 hours!!

As my limited knowledge sees it there is a trend away from severe easterlies at the moment, but I really do think it it still more uncertain than the usual uncertainty about what will happen later next week.

I have actually seen one T168 come to reality only one though.

[Buxton Codge]

DIRE ECM & UKMO This evening!

There will be some wrist slashing on TheWeatheroutlook this evening and Brians big February freeze looks way off the mark again!!

[beng]

ECM is total rubbish past about 120 hours IMO - by 192 it's bringing a rapid thaw across Scandinavia which has been extremely cold all winter and has had deep embedded cold for absolutely ages - simply won't happen. I think they need to take a look at their upgraded model.