Model Output Discussion

[Cloud 10]

ecm216>> gfs216>>

Some subtle differences between the gfs and ecm in early FI this evening.:lol:

It does make for some fascinating model watching though!

[Frosty.]

The ECM De Bilt ensembles will be interesting tonight, as will the updated T+120 Fax chart, not quite chucking in the towel time yet because the gfs and some of the so called lesser models still favour some sort of continental flow but the odds have now shifted to 70/30 in favour of a much milder but probably very wet mid range before high pressure builds from the south later with a possible blow torch.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18z GFS will fall in line with the Europeans tonight. You have heard it here first!

February is going to be the warmest month of this winter

oh come on you dont know that. :lol:

[SP1986]

lol I find some of the posts in here amusing, we cant call it over after just one model run, come on? Let your mind rule over your heart. I often get slated for suggesting cold may not happen, but this is no different, I'm equally as far from convinced it will turn that mild either or at all, I wouldn't worry lets see what subsequent runs bring before getting depressed on the situation.

[Mondy]

Ya beauty! The roaring Atlantic returns - the phrase "January Gales" hasn't been used this year - usually get one or two powerful systems flying in from the Atlantic, perhaps we'll have February gales instead now? For cold lovers - guess I'm one of them too - can't really see anything to get excited about. Still, March can be a surprise..

[andymusic]

Meto are still going for an easterly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Many eastern areas should be dry at first, although with an increasing risk of wintry showers in coastal areas. Western parts are likely to see outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy at times on upslopes, with a risk of snow in northern Scotland. Temperatures probably near normal in the west but rather cold in the east with overnight frost in places. Wintry showers and clear spells likely over the first weekend of February, with rain likely over low ground in the west but snow more likely elsewhere. Temperatures likely to become cold or rather cold with a widespread overnight frost. The cold conditions are likely to continue throughout the second week of February, with easterly or southeasterly winds bringing cold air from the continent and a further risk of overnight frosts.

[The Eagle]

JMA is ok tonight. Something at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsjmaeur.html

And on another positive note NOGAPS is not too far from GFS at 144hrs

Edited January 30, 2010 by The Eagle

[TEITS]

18z GFS will fall in line with the Europeans tonight. You have heard it here first!

February is going to be the warmest month of this winter

Be warned anyone assuming the ECM will verify will have their posts saved and used as my sig!!

Only joking by the way. :lol:

I wouldn't make any assumptions based on the latest +72 fax chart!

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

[Weather-history]

February is going to be the warmest month of this winter

Well the statistical odds favour it, just on the grounds alone that the CET average is 4.2 for February.

You wouldn't get large odds from me thats for sure!

Edited January 30, 2010 by Mr_Data

[swfc]

oh come on you dont know that. :lol:

Well given some of todays comments regarding the ukmo output being totally wrong his comment is probably as accurate as anyone elses.

[ribster]

Expect the MO 6-15 dayer tomorrow to dramatically change to mild and above average temps for around 7-9 days time.

What a U turn, with the GFS holding its head in shame..

I don't think the GFS is holding it's head in shame just yet, none of these charts have verified yet, some do get a little carried away on both sides of the fence.

[Buxton Codge]

Good 72hr fax with colder weather across the northern parts of the UK

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif

[beng]

Why will it not happen.the ukmo output wasnt going to happen but it looks to be close to the mark.The embedded cold is always going to get pushed away eventually is it not.Very big let down today if im honest. :lol:

Cold embedded air is incredibly hard to push away - especially when pressure should be rising to the North - pushing the jet south. ECM brings that mild air into Scandinavia in about a 24 hour period - experience alone says that won't happen. The model is too progressive - as hinted at by the NOAA discussions this morning.

[cold snap]

Be warned anyone assuming the ECM will verify will have their posts saved and used as my sig!!

Only joking by the way.

I wouldn't make any assumptions based on the latest +72 fax chart!

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif

I make GFS 18Z key tonight and maybe the morning run.if that goes belly up we may be done for.

ECM and UKMO this evening have given slight signs that the atlantic might be starting to come to life.

Worrying signs for me would be a poor 18Z and met office to change there further outlook.until this point its not a done deal yet

Edited January 30, 2010 by cold snap

[Frosty.]

I don't think the GFS is holding it's head in shame just yet, none of these charts have verified yet, some do get a little carried away on both sides of the fence.

Agreed, sometimes it's best to just sit on the fence but by tomorrow this saga will be over, one way or the other.

[TEITS]

Another straw to clutch is the JMA which is the most fantastic reliable model out there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

I am however running out of straws at the moment. :lol:

Edited January 30, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Cymro]

People are so hypocrytical? one run and yes the winter is over and its insanely a mild february, Seriously guys contain yourselves and cut off the drink a little, Its vital that we asses all outcomes yes they are models and are projections theyre not boulders that are there permanently so why do people treat them that way? Tomorrow people will be back on the cold wagon, its stupidity at its best form :lol:

[SP1986]

Cold embedded air is incredibly hard to push away - especially when pressure should be rising to the North - pushing the jet south. ECM brings that mild air into Scandinavia in about a 24 hour period - experience alone says that won't happen. The model is too progressive - as hinted at by the NOAA discussions this morning.

To be fair I have seen this occur before, when the air is travelling at 100mph in the upper atmosphere it easily reaches there in 24 hours.

[Long haul to mild]

lol I find some of the posts in here amusing, we cant call it over after just one model run, come on? Let your mind rule over your heart. I often get slated for suggesting cold may not happen, but this is no different, I'm equally as far from convinced it will turn that mild either or at all, I wouldn't worry lets see what subsequent runs bring before getting depressed on the situation.

Absolutely spot on.

All these comments about spring coming and BBQs are relating to charts in FI!!! Why believe them any more than the GFS ones showing snow?

Only when we get model consensus at T96 will we get a true idea of what will happen.

[remymartin]

I put a deposit down on a snowmobile yesterday on the strength of the gfs do you think i will lose it :lol:

[NorthantsSnow]

Whereabouts can I find the black city by city ensemble graphs that so often get posted? (GFS)

[Costa Del Fal]

I feel i need to re post in here what i have put in our regional thread:

Oh dear everyone is going nuts over one or two mild runs from the ECM and UKMO.

There is so much potential that could easily come our way. Tbh the over reaction by so many people is getting on my nerves and is pointless. We have had a great January. If February is a bit pants then im not worrying becuse not only March/April can hold some snow potential, the prospects of spring and summer are not too far away. :lol:

Everyone is over reacting far too much. Anyway, its the weather and it will do what it wants-we must face that!

[Tim Bland]

All I can say is...Oh Dear! Didn't think for a second the ECM would be worse than the UKMO. We have done it to ourselves agian folks! All hope is resting on the GFS. Going to take a break from the models now see you in a week or so to see if there is any way out of the Bartlet!

[John Snow]

Absolutely spot on.

All these comments about spring coming and BBQs are relating to charts in FI!!! Why believe them any more than the GFS ones showing snow?

Only when we get model consensus at T96 will we get a true idea of what will happen.

The UKMO and GFS were poles apart on what is going to happen, the ECM needed to come on board with the GFS for snowmageddon to happen and instead it has sided with the UKMO so the GSM is out on a limb, I expect the 18z GFS to show 8ft of snow and 50ft drifts as it is the pub run but I think tomorrow the GFS will line up with the UKMO/ECM

[Cloud 10]

I am however running out of straws at the moment. :lol:

Have a couple more.

With the AO in deep negative territory and the NAO forecast to go slightly negative,then longer term solutions such as tonights ecm would seem unlikely.