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Model Output Discussion

Bottesford

By Bottesford
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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted (edited)

Worth mentioning that at +120 there isn't much difference between the GEM/ECM wrt the LP. However the GEM has the block further W which is why we see the SE,ly at +144.

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?30-0

Not looking good at all.

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PubliusEnigma Newbie

PubliusEnigma

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Actually, ECM does bring the Atlantic in at 120 hours, first signs its backing down towards the UKMO??

I agree, the ECM 12z is crucially siding with the UKMO from T120 and beyond. Well we had to wait to

see which way the pendulum would swing. The ECM is backing the UKMO from Wed onwards, with SW'lys

75% odds on. and temps 6 - 8oC by day. Snow is possible over the scottish mountains and shetland

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted
Posted

The next five minutes or so will prove me right or wrong,,,but..there is STILL a chance that an easterly can emerge after t144....

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

ECM looks very worrying to me . I think we might be looking at a Snow event tomorrow though , I have a feeling the Cheshire gap effect is gonna be in play , GFS shows this nicely and if this happens it would be 100% Snow . I am surprised the Met Office isn't making more of this . Any thoughts ?

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Heights rising over Greenland, Jet going south, not a bad chart if you look at the overall synoptics. The frustrating thing is that the stella charts keep getting pushed back

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PubliusEnigma Newbie

PubliusEnigma

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Seems the Iberian Blocking High is a king pin player here and is driving the solution, whilst the Siberian

HP is retreating ever further eastwards with each run. If i were a betting man, I would say game over. Time to look to a possible reload from the NW in about 12 - 15 days time..

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)

The next five minutes or so will prove me right or wrong,,,but..there is STILL a chance that an easterly can emerge after t144....

Well there appears to be a Greenie High developing, so whether this will bring the Siberian High westwards remains to be seen, but it is definitely not as good as the GFS, though with a lot more potential than the UKMO. Similar also to the GEM at +120 hours. The problem I have is that it appears to have been knocked back at least by the ECM again. If it can recover by +192 then it's still all to play for but with such differences between models I can't see anything after +120 having much chance of occuring IMO.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

Well the ECM at +144 doesn't exactly get into bed with the UKMO @ +144 but it's far away from the dreamy GFS.

However the high to our north east is getting its act together and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this run turns good in the finish.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

ECM starts at T96, its output is so similar to UKMO....wait until Monday...Fi is T96...but poor ECM.

BFTP

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Ben_Cambs Explorer

Ben_Cambs

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
Posted

I think this run might have a good ending after the T+144 chart, with the increasing highs in Eastern Scandi

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

The next five minutes or so will prove me right or wrong,,,but..there is STILL a chance that an easterly can emerge after t144....

Yes whilst some feel the ECM is like the UKMO at +144 around +168/+192 the outcomes would be very different. The UKMO has no chance of an E,ly beyond +144 whereas the ECM 12Z does.

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

No the ECM is NOT siding with the UKMET at all, IT fully sides with GFS in the most crucial of factors.

UKMET puts the energy above the Block, GFS and ECM below. This is really all that matters atm.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted
Posted (edited)

Well there appears to be a Greenie High developing, so whether this will bring the Siberian High westwards remains to be seen, but it is definitely not as good as the GFS, though with a lot more potential than the UKMO. Similar also to the GEM at +120 hours.

I think the half way house talked about this morning with a potential SE is a possiiblity - but the biting easterly is losing more and more hope it has to be said.

However, that might not be the case yet. We wait and see.

ECM nowhere near as progressive as UKMO that is for sure

Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

The truth us, what I suspected all along, bad ECM comes out and everyones calling for the morphine.

The truth is that it's still up in the air and will be until the models agree. The SWly flow is a real threat and I've always thought that this may break through, but it's not certain and we can be sure that it will be either a southwesterly or southeasterly. Still 50/50. The ECM tonight means nothing because it will just change tomorrow and everyone will be happy again so there's little to get worked up about.

Alot of people problems is they love cold too much :whistling:

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

HOw is the magic " 8th Feb " looking on this run ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-168.GIF?30-0 Maybe?

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Maybe it looks a shocker for cold weather but it does not mean it wont pan out that way.????.It goes out to 144 hrs so who knows.I do suspect there are more qualified people than us programing the computers and producing the charts.???.All will be revealed when the weather does what it does. :whistling:

oh dear. :lol: :hi:
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PubliusEnigma Newbie

PubliusEnigma

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Yes whilst some feel the ECM is like the UKMO at +144 around +168/+192 the outcomes would be very different. The UKMO has no chance of an E,ly beyond +144 whereas the ECM 12Z does.

Lets see how tonights T192 12z compares to the T208 on the 00z run.

Recm2161.gif

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

ouch! :whistling:

only one run though

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