Model Output Discussion

[NorthantsSnow]

Lol thats what members have be saying since last night's 12 UKMO run

120hr FAX chart tonight will be interesting.

Anyway JMA hasn't gone the UKMO route.

I'm afraid Mr D that chart is 24 hrs old.

[The Eagle]

We are in a situation now where no Euro models so far support the GFS. If the ECM supports the UKMO in particular id say that's that. NOGAPS is also messing around with shortwaves around 96hrs. Nervey wait I think.

[Tom D]

As a newby and less experianced than most, I think i have thrown myself in the deep end here. looking at the models i am well confused, Would someone be kind enough to tell me what is what.

are we heading for a severe cold spell,or mild and cold,or mild even.

Thankyou.

In 2 hours time (when the ECM is out) we may know more. At present it's a direct battle between the UKMO and the GFS as to when the easterly arrives. It could be next Tuesday/Wednesday (if the GFS comes off) or it could be mid-February if it goes with the UKMO in the short term (next week).

Someone said above that it's timing that is the dilemma, as with heights building over Greenland and northern Europe, a block is there and an easterly could follow. It's just the UKMO doesn't see any heights over Greenland in its output.

[Iceberg]

A quick look through the 20 GFS ENS at 144Z shows approx 10-15% going for a UKMET solution 50-60% for a GFS solution and the rest inbetweeners.

So we know that the UKMET has very little support from at least the GEFS.

[Rollo]

As a newby and less experianced than most, I think i have thrown myself in the deep end here. looking at the models i am well confused, Would someone be kind enough to tell me what is what.

are we heading for a severe cold spell,or mild and cold,or mild even.

Thankyou.

The truth of the matter is that no one knows at this stage,hence the reasons for the busy thread and loads of opinions.Things will be sorted out soon but when the two main models are at such disagreement at this late stage it is difficult to decide,nay,impossible. As a pointer the teleconnections are favourable ,there is a MMR going on but still the ball is up in the air.

[NorthantsSnow]

We are in a situation now where no Euro models so far support the GFS.

Equally no Euro model supports the UKMO either.

[londonsnow]

ukmo versus gfs. in the words of harry hill. FIGHT!

[Harsh Climate]

Lol thats what members have be saying since last night's 12 UKMO run

120hr FAX chart tonight will be interesting.

Anyway JMA hasn't gone the UKMO route.

http://www.meteociel...192-21.GIF?29-0

Ye it would be nice to have ukmo on board but things are still moving along quite nicely.

I think the people who are genuinly dissapointed are the ones hoping for an extreme eastlerly with -17 uppers and frequent snow showers

The truth is that is very very unlikley, the more likely option is a slack easterly feed at some point with a few wintry/snow showers pushing in from the east. Im not saying another 1990/91 wont happen, just 49/50 wont happen...

[Snowyowl9]

UKMO difference is that the jet is over the UK,the low is slightly further south to the 0z output.

Where as GFS takes the jet over southern Spain.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Yesterdays UKMO 12 run,Lows shifted slightly further south today if thats any consolation great weather for ducks if that came off.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1441.gif

[shiver]

Equally no Euro model supports the UKMO either.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif the low stalls the next chart shows it turning colder imo and metos

[k19]

If the GFS does pull off, will it just be eastern england affected?

[Harsh Climate]

If the GFS does pull off, will it just be eastern england affected?

No, an easterly of that magnitude would affect the whole of the UK and everywhere would be at risk of heavy snow. wont come off though...

[mezzacyclone]

Mr D posted This in the previous closed model discussion thread stating a No mans land scenario

and as a result of the current to-ing and fro-ing IMO its got most credence despite its basic look and disregarding the last 5 week its a winter chart we are all familiar with seeing/transpiring?

[weather eater]

If the GFS does pull off, will it just be eastern england affected?

No not going by the GFS 12z, however it seems to me to be pointless to speculate until we resolve the differences in the models, this really is a case where looking into FI, whether for a trends or possible weather events is a waste of time.

[TEITS]

Just seen the UKMO/GFS and I don't need to say anything really!

GEM disagrees with the UKMO.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

Different to the GFS but this shows a S,ly backing SE,ly and if there was a +168/+192 chart there would be an E,ly.

The ECM will certainly give us a clue. However you have to wonder how much faith you can put into tonights ECM output when there is so much disagreement between the GFS/UKMO. Like I say it will give us a clue but nothing more. Have to wait until tomorrow unfortunately.

[Tim Bland]

Looking at the UKMO on Wetter it's actualy not a complete write off for cold http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif Every chance that the low wont make it across us and cold could still win?!

[NorthantsSnow]

The GEM is just rolling out. So far looks closer to the GFS than the UKMO but have to watch those shortwaves south of Greenland, could be a spoiler.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

Edited January 30, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[andymusic]

Thjis doesn't make sense to me - If synoptics evolved exactly as the T144 shows on the UKMO how could the block survive!! Are you saying that the Meto believe that the UKMO model is correct so a milder end to the week and then the block asecerting itself pushing the atlantic back?

you're right that doesn't make any sense whatsoever - at the end of the ukmo run then they jump ship to the GFS/ECM mmmmmmmmm could be a bit messy really if the ukmo has gone off at a completely different tangent - this is obviously where the human input comes in - I would say very difficult to do mind you!

[Jason T]

In 2 hours time (when the ECM is out) we may know more. At present it's a direct battle between the UKMO and the GFS as to when the easterly arrives. It could be next Tuesday/Wednesday (if the GFS comes off) or it could be mid-February if it goes with the UKMO in the short term (next week).

Someone said above that it's timing that is the dilemma, as with heights building over Greenland and northern Europe, a block is there and an easterly could follow. It's just the UKMO doesn't see any heights over Greenland in its output.

Manythanks.

The truth of the matter is that no one knows at this stage,hence the reasons for the busy thread and loads of opinions.Things will be sorted out soon but when the two main models are at such disagreement at this late stage it is difficult to decide,nay,impossible. As a pointer the teleconnections are favourable ,there is a MMR going on but still the ball is up in the air.

Manythanks.

[Weather-history]

NOGAPS 12z is in the GFS camp

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?30-18

Edited January 30, 2010 by Mr_Data

[weather eater]

GEM doesny't back the UKMO in the crucial stage and thats really all that matters at this stage, however the ECM is the one that matters.

[Tom D]

The GEM and the NOGAPS show an easterly of sorts, more different to the UKMO than the GFS anyway.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?30-18

[Geordiesnow]

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif the low stalls the next chart shows it turning colder imo and metos

I can't see anything noteworthy cold happening if the UKMO carried on unless that Azores high somehow starts linking up the Greenland high and giving us a cold shot from the north. Going by that 144 hour chart, that looks unlikely at this stage.

If i have to put a bet on which model is right it would be the UKMO. GFS can be a stubborn model at times but more often than not it does back down towards the euros. I think because the ECM is showing something more more like the GFS is what keeping our hopes that an easterly will take place. Past experiences tell me that an easterly is never nailed until the UKMO comes on board as its the one model that will always be reluctant to bring in an easterly although as we seen quite recently, it was too keen to bring in an easterly which left forecasters with egg on their faces as they predicted colder air only for them to finally changng it too mild air taking over albeit briefly.

Its interesting to note though that this mornings ECM/GFS do agree about that low giving us as very brief northerly whilst the UKMO has none of it. It will be slightly encouraging if the ECM does show this especially if it does not side with the UKMO.

Interesting battle and i don't think it will decide it either way whatever the ECM shows but it will tell us the most likely direction the winds will be coming from next week.

[TEITS]

Here is an interesting twist but I don't know if this will help or confuse members even more!

Since the E,ly has been progged by the GFS the NOGAPS, JMA have been rather poor (excluding yesterday 12Z JMA). At times the output has resembled the UKMO. I remember a JMA a few days ago that was showing mild SW,lys like the UKMO.

However tonight the NOGAPS backs the GFS.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?30-18

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-180.png?30-18

So if you was going to base a forecast purely on the evidence of the 12Zs for far using the GFS/UKMO/GEM/NOGAPS/GEFS Mean it would be this. At +120 we see a SW tracking SE under the block with cold SE,lys spreading across the UK. At +168 we see the flow changing from a SE,ly to a ESE,ly. At +192 we see even colder temps moving in as the flow veers towards an E,ly.

This isn't a forecast but just an observation of the models so far.

GEM doesny't back the UKMO in the crucial stage and thats really all that matters at this stage, however the ECM is the one that matters.

When you have such disagreement between the UKMO/GFS I feel its wise to look at the lesser models to see what they are showing. Im sure I read somewhere recently that the NOGAPS has been performing rather well lately.

[January Snowstorm]

Yes teits clearly the minnows following the gfs which is crucial

UKMO becoming isolated now