Model Output Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

Which model do we side with thats the question, I side with the GFs. The main models to me are the ECM and GFS and if a model goes against the big players then I can't back that model. Not that the UKMO is a bad model or anything but it isn't really recognised as one of the big players, and the METO have sided against the UKMO in there 6-15 days outlook. All the signs are against the UKMO, even the pro meto forecasters are going againts the UKMO, and thats saying something.

Edited January 30, 2010 by 10123

[londonsnow]

Can you imagine what would happen if that Monster cyclone in mid atlantic moved due east and undercut the block say

in over Biscay, blizzard central, for the south, and it would only serve to reinforce the developing easterly ! Incredible scenes this afternoon.

i find that ludicrous cyclone very odd, wouldnt like to be under it if it occurs. little change in the reliable from gfs 12z. we end up cold and sluggish, probably cloudy with snow grains in the east at times. main headline is, as we're all saying, such discrepency twixt gfs and ukmo

[igloo]

Its amazing here that one pesky shortwave could derail the whole pattern, the UKMO continues to pull the low to the east westwards and phases it with the Atlantic low where as the GFS pushes this se'wards, this one thing means the difference between snow and cold and mild mush sw'erlies!

This is extremely frustrating and soon my lap top might end up chucked out of the window!

very frustrating indeed i have the feeling this evenings ECM run will probably settle it one way or the other

[Tim Bland]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2284.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.png

Snow frenzy by this point! (appart from extreme SW)

All prety academic until we get a decision on midweek! All eyes on the ECM, whats the betting it sits on the fence and leaves us none the wiser!

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tim Bland

[sandstorm2]

I have a lot of regard for the UKMO and I have got that nagging feeling about their solution, these shortwaves are a pain in the proverbials.

SS2

Thing is will the GFS have any credibility left if it is wrong.

SS2

[Snowyowl9]

I think cold/snow lovers should only be concerned if the UKMO sticks to its guns and either GFS or ECM this afternoon join the UKMO.

1 out of 3 so far,The T120 chart was a surprise jet is further south still going by those other runs.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn12015.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

ECM shows anything like an easterly then game on.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Cloud 10]

The UKMETO not only says no, it sticks up two fingers on both hands. !

gfs120>> ukmo120>>

The mexican stand-off continues between gfs and ukmo.

Actually quite a nasty looking storm on the ukmo chart.

Lets hope the ecm can save NS's laptop from an early demise.

[Tom D]

If we follow the GFS 12z, there's only one solution.

The UK shuts down - quite literally. There is feet of snow widely across the UK there for days and days sub zero temperatures.

The past few GFS runs have given us some of the most remarkable charts and set ups I have ever seen, even having looked at the syntoptics for 1947/63. The op in FI in unbelievable. It is a scary run to say the least.

If it isn't a cold outlier then I'll eat my own face.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[The Eagle]

UKMO...oh dear.

Fingers crossed the ECM does not follow GME and UKMO tonight or that could be curtains.

Meanwhile im busy calculated how much snow something like this would actually bring even though it will hardly happen.

[shuggee]

very frustrating indeed i have the feeling this evenings ECM run will probably settle it one way or the other

Indeed - and looking at the ECM 00Z it would appear that it was backing the UKMO view. Could end up being the GFS vs the Euros again, and currently it's the Euros that are proving the more reliable:

[Jayces]

Which model do we side with thats the question, I side with the GFs. The main models to me are the ECM and GFS and if a model goes against the big players then I can't back that model. Not that the UKMO is a bad model or anything but it isn't really recognised as one of the big players, and the METO have sided against the UKMO in there 6-15 days outlook. All the signs are against the UKMO, even the pro meto forecasters are going againts the UKMO, and thats saying something.

Can anyone explain why this is?

I was going to post a question but as it has been mentioned i'll just quote that.

The 6-15 METO outlook clearly indicates a return to colder snowier conditions towards the end of the period and has done for a few days now yet if I am reading this thread correctly the METO model does not show that outcome so why would the METO go against their own model?

[Frosty.]

If the ukmo 12z is correct, we should make the most of the remaining cold spell instead of throwing our laptops out of the window.

[John Snow]

The GFS verifies then the army will be placed on standby surely ? we would be talking FEET of snow not inches

UKMO is horrible, one of them is going to lose all credibility by this time next week, hope it is the UKMO

[weather eater]

I agree but we don't normally see this huge difference this early on, and normally i just couldn't back against the UKMO at that timeframe. This is probably the biggest model divergence I've ever seen at that timeframe.

One or the other is certainly badly wrong, and yes the time frames are tight this time. However what this should demonstrate is just how difficult this climate modelling business is and why folk should hang fire before criticising others for taking a different view. My fear is that the UKMO is right, but most evidence points the other way, I think the ECM will back the GFS this evening and leave us hanging on for a resolution in the morning, but given the way this has gone its no guarantee that the mornings runs will resolve the conundrum.

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs120>> ukmo120>>

The mexican stand-off continues between gfs and ukmo.

Actually quite a nasty looking storm on the ukmo chart.

Lets hope the ecm can save NS's laptop from an early demise.

i must say though that ukmo is a monster low it really would do some damage to our hopes of cold it could be over progressive though in many ways.

maybe im hope casting well i am tbh.

i have a sneaking feeling the uk met are backing the gfs them selfs.

Edited January 30, 2010 by badboy657

[nick sussex]

gfs120>> ukmo120>>

The mexican stand-off continues between gfs and ukmo.

Actually quite a nasty looking storm on the ukmo chart.

Lets hope the ecm can save NS's laptop from an early demise.

I've decided to nail it down before the ECM comes out! Normally the GFS 12hrs would be the run which would be viewed as the most progressive of its 4 in terms of energy being pushed eastwards so its even more strange that its still very bullish about the easterly. The only other model out so far is the cannon fodder GME and thats gone for a blend of the GFS/UKMO solutions but looks more like the UKMO but not quite as horrifying at 132hrs!

[The PIT]

The GFS verifies then the army will be placed on standby surely ? we would be talking FEET of snow not inches

UKMO is horrible, one of them is going to lose all credibility by this time next week, hope it is the UKMO

The armies stuck out in Iraq and Afghanistan so not many troops left for snow shovelling.

Yeh which model is for the chop.

[Ben_Cambs]

I think GFS 12z is another insane run after yesterdays 18z! Unbelievable differences between GFS and UKMO tonight. One of these two models is completly wrong, but at the moment which one that is we dont know! ECM should tell us more later

[shuggee]

Can anyone explain why this is?

I was going to post a question but as it has been mentioned i'll just quote that.

The 6-15 METO outlook clearly indicates a return to colder snowier conditions towards the end of the period and has done for a few days now yet if I am reading this thread correctly the METO model does not show that outcome so why would the METO go against their own model?

My view is that forecasting a westward extending high pressure is always a tricky business, and the models themselves are weak beyond T+120/T+144 at nailing it correctly, as history time again proves. What's even worse is that human forecasters themselves who have no vested interest or fetish in seeing one outcome or the other have huge difficulty in calling it too. Obviously, as always, those wanting cold weather will always back that solution - and it is for us the reader to decide on the pedigree and previous performance of human commentators what is likely and what is more unlikely to happen. It's literally all up in the air Jayces.

[ChartViewer]

UKMO doesnt go the way of gFS as some expected....Models are fickle arent they

[Matty M]

I think were going to get an inbetweeny.

Merge the GME 12z run into the GFS a little and thats what i think will happen.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gme/run/gme-0-132.png

Fascinating stuff though, what would you do if it was like this in the morning and you had to do the countryfile forecast?

[Frosty.]

The GFS verifies then the army will be placed on standby surely ? we would be talking FEET of snow not inches

UKMO is horrible, one of them is going to lose all credibility by this time next week, hope it is the UKMO

Thats the thing though, the models are gaining and losing credibility all the time, if the gfs has got it woefully wrong, it will make up for it another time and likewise with the ukmo. I love the latest gfs output but it has a very hollow feeling with no excitement value with the ukmo set up promising a prolonged mild spell.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Although there is a lot of excitement over the GFS run the snowfest is out in FI- the easterly around T+120 to T+168 looks like a dry cloudy one. All academic if the UKMO comes off, of course.

I don't agree with Shugs that ECM backed UKMO this morning- its shorter-term outlook actually closely resembled GFS but its handling of the block towards T+144/168 was different, slipping it further south and giving us a cold dry anticyclonic/southerly regime. In essence it was a halfway house- although the one sense in which it did back UKMO was in not bringing us a cold snowy easterly.

I can't remember GFS and UKMO having such big differences at less than 3 days out- it's been known at 4 days out but this is something else entirely!

[AderynCoch]

Looks like the gods are simply going to toss a coin on this one.

Even if the ECM takes sides, will that tell us anything? If we can get such divergence at 96h, then expect more twists and turns yet.

[snowking]

gfs120>> ukmo120>>

The mexican stand-off continues between gfs and ukmo.

Actually quite a nasty looking storm on the ukmo chart.

Lets hope the ecm can save NS's laptop from an early demise.

Also worth using those charts to indicate to those with less chart viewing experience as to why the Greenland High is one of the holy grails of the cold UK winter

As you see on the GFS greenland high in place, jet stream and its corresponding LP's are diverted to our south, we end up on the northern side of the LP systems bringing a cold SE'ly flow

UKMO has no such block in place across greenland allowing the jet stream and its resultant LP systems crashing head first into the UK

SK