Model Output Discussion

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OMG...the 12z ECM...you don't or do want to see it!!!

BFTP

[Mark Bayley]

Both the GFS, GEM, JMA and NOGAPs all agree, to some extent, on a easterly, south easterly flow. The UKMO seems pretty much on its own, however the GME does look pretty similar but not as bad. An interesting battle setting up. Will be interesting to see where the ECM goes tonight. The UKMO has been pretty consistent over the past few runs, which is whats worrying.

[J10]

I think there has been more model disagreement this winter even at short range than any winter I can remember.

[Snowyowl9]

Looking at the UKMO on Wetter it's actualy not a complete write off for cold http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif Every chance that the low wont make it across us and cold could still win?!

All it would give is wet mild and windy gales/severe gales.

Ensembles show good agreement until the 4th no agreement on UKMO -6/7c upper air on the 3rd 2 members above only at that time.

Whatever it`s cold outside now thats all I know.

[TEITS]

Yes teits clearly the minnows following the gfs which is crucial

UKMO becoming isolated now

Indeed and whats also important is to make sure members don't use past disappointments as a guide to which model is correct. For example if the UKMO was showing an E,ly with no backing from the other models then many will dismiss the UKMO.

I can understand why some are wary of the UKMO due to being correct over past E,lys. However as I always say each synoptic pattern is different and furthermore models i.e GFS have since recieved upgrades.

What im saying is don't just assume the UKMO is correct based on previous disappointments. There is no scientific backing for doing this.

OMG...the 12z ECM...you don't or do want to see it!!!

BFTP

Have you been fiddling with the ECM again Fred. :lol:

Much better ensembles. The cluster of -10Cs have returned.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100130/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Edited January 30, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[andymusic]

I think there has been more model disagreement this winter even at short range than any winter I can remember.

I'm sure it's got to be something to do with the extreme blocking we've had this winter making understanding what is about to happen difficult to nail down for the models - simple but I think cause they have been used to milder scenarios with the atlantic freely moving in it's usual direction all this blocking makes it hard for them to decide any future outcome for any major length of time!

[Tim Bland]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Ensembles not as good as the 06z. There is agreement on surface temps being cold so some members must be going for Faux cold rather than the true easterly with associated uppers. IMO things are going the wrong way for a full blown Beast from the East. Most likely outcome is a SE feed with Faux cold and anticyclonic.

I think the pink ensemble on the surface temps is the UKMO solution!

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tim Bland

[PubliusEnigma]

The crux of the problem concerning the UKMO is what happens to the HP at about 45-50N

here it is conducive to a N but then it transfers here ;-

so the only viable outcome is for the shortwave to move east, with SW'lys

on the Southern flank.

That said it would be nice to see a T108 or T132 from the UKMO

As looking at the next chart, the low in the N Atlantic could be winding itself

up and even tracking NNW, with the Arctic HP possibly looking to ridge SSE towards

the High over France

which would again block the atlantic and reintroduce the risk of SE'lys and

this is the UKMO output.

All is not lost..

[Bobby]

GFS op is not a cold outlier at all, well supported indeed, at least until way into FI. Not without support then either. Little to suggest a UKMO scenario.

[TEITS]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Ensembles not as good as the 06z. There is agreement on surface temps being cold so some members must be going for Faux cold rather than the true easterly with associated uppers. IMO things are going the wrong way for a full blown Beast from the East. Most likely outcome is a SE feed with Faux cold and anticyclonic.

I think the pink ensemble on the surface temps is the UKMO solution!

The mean for my location on 6th Feb rose above -5C on the 06Z. The 12Z has returned to -7C. This in my opinion is an improvement.

[shiver]

http://www.jp2webdes.../two/ensembles/

http://91.121.94.83/...ndres&runpara=0

Ensembles not as good as the 06z. There is agreement on surface temps being cold so some members must be going for Faux cold rather than the true easterly with associated uppers. IMO things are going the wrong way for a full blown Beast from the East. Most likely outcome is a SE feed with Faux cold and anticyclonic.

I think the pink ensemble on the surface tempt is the UKMO solution!

do not agree i think its low pressure undercutting the block sending higher 850s north but the surface remains cold

[The Eagle]

I think we will know with the very first ECM chart whether or not it will go with the GFS. Crucial period on the GFS is 72 to 120hrs. If we just get there with the ECM id be pleased.

[LomondSnowstorm]

NOGAPS 12z is in the GFS camp

http://91.121.94.83/...0-144.png?30-18

It's like general election night here on the model thread - constituency of GEFS perturbation 7 parallel goes to the GFS http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-7-1-138.png?12

[Kentish Kiwi]

Yes teits clearly the minnows following the gfs which is crucial

UKMO becoming isolated now

Which to be fair won't mean much if the ECM goes with the UKMO. Personally the only way I see things being cleared up tonight is if the ECM clearly and definitley backs either the GFS or UKMO, it will only confuse things further if it comes out with its own mid-way evolution (which looks somewhat unlikely). However, saying that even if the ECM does show that its clearly in agreement with one of the two, things really won't be clear until at least mid-morning tomorrow, as there would still be the big uncertainty with either the UKMO or the GFS + Minnows completely at odds with the others...

To put it simply, and as many others have said several times, the only certainty at the current time is uncertainty - it really is on a knife edge :lol:

KK

[Tim Bland]

The mean for my location on 6th Feb rose above -5C on the 06Z. The 12Z has returned to -7C. This in my opinion is an improvement.

But by the 8th (in London at least) nearly all rise above -5 menaing snow melt and a more tricky retun (if any)to cold.

*Edit* Just seen the post re the low under-cutting - Would be rain for the south though at least. Maybe rain turning to snow?

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tim Bland

[SP1986]

The UKMO might be becoming isolated but each run is backing further southeast and south, in previous days it was a straight easterly. Judging by the GEM and NGP runs tonight, the low pressure from the Atlantic is very close to breaking into UK space - so close infact that if it happened as the GEM/NGP suggested western Ireland would escape the cold spell :lol:

The chance of either southeasterly or southwesterly coming through is literally 50/50.

As for the temperatures the GFS, they are best ignored, although isolated cases of -7C would occur in the GFS setup, it would most likely be around -3C in reality given that setup. I still maintain the GFS has a poor handle on 2m temperatures, and a few instances last week proved that (forecasts of -5C turned out to be +1C!)

[Snowfan50]

Im a complete newbie to the models, but one of the charts looks like it is brining cold air from east canada to the Uk ( am i wrong). What kind of weather and temps would that bring?

[MP-R]

All is not lost..

Most certainly not :lol:. A real battle looks set for next week at present with the northern blocking taking hand toward the end of the week. The lows from the Atlantic have no choice but to squash under the high to the north keeping the wind coming from a SE/ESE direction judging by this. An interesting evolution into an easterly:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

[k19]

Im a complete newbie to the models, but one of the charts looks like it is brining cold air from east canada to the Uk ( am i wrong). What kind of weather and temps would that bring?

Christ what chart is that :lol:? I dont think canada is a likely source, i believe the gulf stream usually chops up the air coming across the atlantic, unless of course you are speaking of a northerly?

[Snowfan50]

NOGAPS 12z is in the GFS camp

http://91.121.94.83/...0-144.png?30-18

Im talking about this chart here ha. I guess im way wrong on what direction the cold is coming from sorry.

[andymusic]

Im a complete newbie to the models, but one of the charts looks like it is brining cold air from east canada to the Uk ( am i wrong). What kind of weather and temps would that bring?

that would be atlantic warmed air then I'm afraid - warms up over the sea

[Lewis]

Hey, is the ECM any good?? or is it sticking to it's guns saying no to an easterly

[Buxton Codge]

Hi!

I'm new to this forum.

Looking forward to the ECM 12z this evening

Codge

[Matty M]

It isnt out yet Storm Force Lewis

[Mark Bayley]

Hey, is the ECM any good?? or is it sticking to it's guns saying no to an easterly

Not out yet, should start soon though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php