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Bottesford

By Bottesford
in Forecast Model Discussion

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Not out yet, should start soon though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Its a shocker...

BFTP

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

There is a real sense of desperation and anxiety beginning to take over this model thread now thanks to the ukmo more than digging it's heels in and adamant that atlantic low pressure will break through and destroy our cold block which would then take weeks to recover or probably not at all, it could be game, set and match for the bulk of feb if the ukmo verifies and will turn a lot of people off model watching should that occur.

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Buxton Codge Apprentice

Buxton Codge

Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District
Posted

lol codge whats wrong with two you havnt been banned have yourofl.gif

No not banned. I'm having a break like Bren, Presutti and the other top posters

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PubliusEnigma Newbie

PubliusEnigma

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Huge upgrade already!!

I'm looking forward to this run

Well its a carbon copy of the GFS12z

Rtavn721.png:)

Quite similar at 72hrs to the GFS. Similar ridging from the North. Not so strong from the South.

Recm721.gif

Rtavn721.png

Hmmm something odd here. Look at the siberian ! Its absolutley Identical. Have ECM borrowed

the images from the GFS12z run ???????????

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Snowstorm1 Apprentice

Snowstorm1

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

Well its a carbon copy of the GFS12z

Rtavn721.pnggood.gif

That charts has brought tears of joy to my eyes. Great Upgrade for Cold and Snow prospects

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Kentish Kiwi Rookie

Kentish Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
Posted

Im talking about this chart here ha. I guess im way wrong on what direction the cold is coming from sorry.

I think what your doing there is misreading the wind direction of the lows and highs. From what I can tell, your reading it as the winds are traveling from Canada across the Atlantic towards the UK but infact the wind is traveling in the opposite direction, from Europe across the Atlantic to Canada (winds flow anti-clockwise around low pressures ie. that big dark blue/purple mass to the West of the UK, meaning that chart is showing a South-Easterly, not a North-Westerly). The only way were going to see real cold from this situation is from an Easterly from Europe, which is what that chart shows to a degree.

Don't worry about misreading the charts as your new! They are quite complicated and can take some time to get used to, I'm sure everyone here will be happy to help you out - don't be afraid to ask! :)

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-96.GIF?30-0
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PubliusEnigma Newbie

PubliusEnigma

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Quite similar at 72hrs to the GFS. Similar ridging from the North. Not so strong from the South.

Recm721.gif

Rtavn721.png

Hmmm something odd here. Look at the siberian ! Its absolutley Identical. Have ECM borrowed

the images from the GFS12z run ???????????

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

Yep, ECM is looking good, not quite as good IMHO as GFS 12Z, but a damn site better than UKMET, this hopefully leaves UKMET out on a limb (it must back down soon).

Are you sure? It looks mild to me!

Karyo

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?30-0 Hmmmm. Not sure about it really. Nothing like as bad as the UKMO, a bit of a middle ground so far.
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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Yep, ECM is looking good, not quite as good IMHO as GFS 12Z, but a damn site better than UKMET, this hopefully leaves UKMET out on a limb (it must back down soon).

I feel some have been abit premature about the 12Z ECM +72/+96!

ECM1-120.GIF?30-0

Unless we see the energy transfer SE. If this moves NE then the E,ly has pretty much gone!

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

Not fully agreeing with the UKMO but Atlantic gets closer on that chart than it does on the GFS.

We could see a halfway house and that the UKMO is being over progressive with the Atlantic but the GFS is too quickly to bring any easterly in and has any block to far west?

Actually, ECM does bring the Atlantic in at 120 hours, first signs its backing down towards the UKMO??

This is a kick in the nuts.

Recm1201.gif

Low is further west than the UKMO but it has the block further eastwards than the GFS hence why the ECM is showing a milder SW'ly whilst the GFS is going for a a slider. It could be a more delayed version of the GFS though as this run has heights towards the North whilst the UKMO does not.

We shall see.

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Jason T Seasoned

Jason T

Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
Posted

This is a kick in the nuts.

Recm1201.gif

It might get there eventually...

Cant take no MORE. Toooo PAINFUL.cray.gif

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PubliusEnigma Newbie

PubliusEnigma

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

ECM seems to go more in line with the UKMO beyond T120 :) this is giving support to the UKMO. So while

it supports the GFS out to T96, it then jumps sides and begins to follow the UKMO for T120 and T144

Would be intresting to see how the 12z T192 compares to the T216 00z

Recm2161.gif

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notananorak Newbie

notananorak

Posted
Posted

Thjis doesn't make sense to me - If synoptics evolved exactly as the T144 shows on the UKMO how could the block survive!! Are you saying that the Meto believe that the UKMO model is correct so a milder end to the week and then the block asecerting itself pushing the atlantic back?

Yes.

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

I've seen enough to say that the easterly is slowly drifting away! The 12z's are showing what we don't want to see!

Karyo

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