Model Output Discussion

[Snowstorm1]

Well I think we've learnt a harsh lesson here and its the UKMO should be known as the dream killer! this model annoys me, it never progs a cold set up when the others show milder but is happy to implode another easterly!

Now that the dust has settled and everyone has got their frustration out of the way lets move on and try and plot a way forward. If you take out the extreme solution of the UKMO and go with the middle ground solution of the ECM where does that leave us, well not quite at the prozac stage because the ECM is still much better than the UKMO at the 144 hrs timeframe.

The ECM at 144hrs could still develop more favourably if the energy goes south rather than north and for this reason and given that theres still model disagreement we should hold fire before calling winter is over etc.

We have to accept that more energy will spill forward off the main trough so the quickest route to the easterly is now very unlikely, so we have to move to plan B. For the timebeing this is still an option but for this we still need the misery model to backtrack tomorrow.

Using a horse racing analogy, the horse might be tired and scrambling over the fences but hasn't unseated its rider just yet!

How far is it behind the leader nick?

[Tom D]

I personally think the ECM will be at the very top of its ensembles - at some point it will click into place. I can't see that the 18z GFS will just follow the ECM 12z like it does so often. It has shown the northern blocking trend for 4/5 days and to just suddenly depart from the idea would seriously damage it's reputation and it would only take a small shift by the models either way to bring in south westerlies or easterlies and that is why there is disagreement.

All the respect in the world to the UKMO/ECM if they get it spot on...

It's a shame Michael Fish is away this week as his thoughts would have been very interesting. He comes back just when everything will be sorted out (4th Feb). Typical

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[shiver]

Well I think we've learnt a harsh lesson here and its the UKMO should be known as the dream killer! this model annoys me, it never progs a cold set up when the others show milder but is happy to implode another easterly!

Now that the dust has settled and everyone has got their frustration out of the way lets move on and try and plot a way forward. If you take out the extreme solution of the UKMO and go with the middle ground solution of the ECM where does that leave us, well not quite at the prozac stage because the ECM is still much better than the UKMO at the 144 hrs timeframe.

The ECM at 144hrs could still develop more favourably if the energy goes south rather than north and for this reason and given that theres still model disagreement we should hold fire before calling winter is over etc.

We have to accept that more energy will spill forward off the main trough so the quickest route to the easterly is now very unlikely, so we have to move to plan B. For the timebeing this is still an option but for this we still need the misery model to backtrack tomorrow.

Using a horse racing analogy, the horse might be tired and scrambling over the fences but hasn't unseated its rider just yet!

well i would wait for the ensembles because this is a warm run for holland as well

[Bobby]

No doubt the ECM will be a big mild outlier and the GFS 18z a stunner to confuse us even more...

[REXUS]

Well I think we've learnt a harsh lesson here and its the UKMO should be known as the dream killer! this model annoys me, it never progs a cold set up when the others show milder but is happy to implode another easterly!

Now that the dust has settled and everyone has got their frustration out of the way lets move on and try and plot a way forward. If you take out the extreme solution of the UKMO and go with the middle ground solution of the ECM where does that leave us, well not quite at the prozac stage because the ECM is still much better than the UKMO at the 144 hrs timeframe.

The ECM at 144hrs could still develop more favourably if the energy goes south rather than north and for this reason and given that theres still model disagreement we should hold fire before calling winter is over etc.

We have to accept that more energy will spill forward off the main trough so the quickest route to the easterly is now very unlikely, so we have to move to plan B. For the timebeing this is still an option but for this we still need the misery model to backtrack tomorrow.

Using a horse racing analogy, the horse might be tired and scrambling over the fences but hasn't unseated its rider just yet!

Sorry off topic,but nick fantastic model analysis all winter,that made me laugh outloud

[Frosty.]

It will probably take until the 00z for the gfs to fall in line with the euros.

[igloo]

after reading pages and pages of at times bizzare comments some people are viewing charts past +144 as if they are going to vertify come on guys get real how often do these charts vertify ANY model past +144 has as good chance as any other past this time frame

[nick sussex]

well i would wait for the ensembles because this is a warm run for holland as well

Its very unlikely that the ECM and UKMO are both wrong in their trend to push more energy eastwards, also when dealing with shortwaves upto 120hrs the operational runs take precedence because of their higher resolution so the ensembles upto that point are not the best guide.

I suspect the ECM ensembles will show alot of scatter with two clusters developing, one taking the jet energy north, the other south but at a timeframe where we can still envisage plausible changes.

Our hope is that the UKMO has overdone the energy eastwards and the ECM past 144hrs takes the shortwave se, the models still prog a negative AO but this doesn't guarantee cold.

[Jason T]

after reading pages and pages of at times bizzare comments some people are viewing charts past +144 as if they are going to vertify come on guys get real how often do these charts vertify ANY model past +144 has as good chance as any other past this time frame

Really agree there people talking 5 days +. Massive changes can happen by then, and i think they will.

[SLAMMER]

Really agree there people talking 5 days +. Massive changes can happen by then, and i think they will.

why do people look at data that is over a week away and think it is going to happen? Its mind boggling. As we know its hard enough to forecast a day ahead let alone a week.

[lobbox]

lol that slightly contradicts the winter is over post a few posts ago, and the declaration of Feb being warmest month.

Don't post often, but some absolutely hilarious posts in here tonight.

People praying, worshipping, then declaring winter is over on the 30th January on the basis of one model run.

Thanks to all those posters who provide a measured balanced approach for amateurs like me!

It would be great to see a dramatic Easterly, and it's definitely not all over yet. One of the formermost models (GFS) is presenting something pretty dramatic as its operational probabilistic scenario and as I understand it is well supported by its Ensembles.

The ECM is presenting another set of probabilities, tending towards the mild. It could be a mild outlier, I don't think we know yet.

The UKMO is also bad (for cold lovers) but has seemingly been disregarded by... the UKMO.

With the human pros at the MO and the GFS apparently in favour of a cold Easterly, it's hardly game over. Of course everyone is excited about the possiblities but it would be great to see everyone keeping an open mind about what could happen. It could be cold or mild - we just cannot tell on the basis of the current charts. Let's not declare winter is over though or that we are "definitely doomed to 3 weeks of blowtorch if UKMO verifies" as that is not terribly helpful for people trying to learn like me.

have a great evening everyone, here's to the 18Z GFS and I don't think we can assume anything.

Well said!

[Solar Cycles]

This is probably the most amusing thread I've read in a long time, a bit of common sense is needed me thinks!

First off, it's painfully obvious all the models have been struggling to get a grip on any set up next week. Also reading some comments on here, makes you wonder if some have any idea at all, whatever the models are showing! For me we won't be any the wiser until Monday at the earliest, so until then, please carry on with the OTT comments!

[MR EXTREMES]

lol nick unseated its rider i like that lol.

i just not liking this its really is a downer situation.

but i can honestly say im very confused meto in there update, even after the terrible outputs this morning still persist to bring in a easterly with snow showers ect ect,

the only thing i can think of is there using the gfs models i really think tomorrow they may well mellow down there medium range forecast perhapes even total backtrack.

but all week the trend was cold from the models apart from the odd wobble,

i think because things on the blocking front where put back run after run,

and indeed we did get there in the end in fi,

but then the energy came into play along with low pressure being stronger than the heights to our east or northeast,

and to be honest either the ukmo is right or a mixture of ecm and ukmo which would not be cold enough for some of the white stuff but it would not be blowtourch.

is funny because BFTP already knew the ecm was bad before it even come out and had warned us lol.

so blast you expecting this to be a total let down now?

i dont think winter is over around average which is better than above,

but then again gp did say feb will be milder ofcoarse its very possible now he could be right.

the blocking is just not where we need it to be and perhapes not as strong as some of the earlier outputs.

[swfc]

why do people look at data that is over a week away and think it is going to happen? Its mind boggling. As we know its hard enough to forecast a day ahead let alone a week.

this comment generally only pops up tho when things go wrong.????.If all the models were showing a raging easterly in 5-7 days then im certain this response woudnt happen.Just a thought.

[winterof79]

It will probably take until the 00z for the gfs to fall in line with the euros.

Take a break people,the thread is becoming laughable.Even codge has been lured in.Just accept that the models cannot handle the block.It is the weather not life and death.Let the met and those who are paid take the stress,it is quite obvious that most on here could not cope with having to put a forecast together.I know it is a hobby ,model watching,but that is just what it is,stop letting it run your lives.Top people have posted on here i.e. ian fergusson stating how difficult it is at present.

[Frosty.]

Take a break people,the thread is becoming laughable.Even codge has been lured in.Just accept that the models cannot handle the block.It is the weather not life and death.Let the met and those who are paid take the stress,it is quite obvious that most on here could not cope with having to put a forecast together.I know it is a hobby ,model watching,but that is just what it is,stop letting it run your lives.Top people have posted on here i.e. ian fergusson stating how difficult it is at present.

I agree this has turned into the model mood thread this afternoon/evening but I do think the 00z will stop the laughter.

[robert]

Just wait and see the UKMO and ECM will do a U-Turn mark my words. Thursday into Friday next week will see some intense snow for a large part of the country, you have to look at the bigger picture models. Lot's and lot's of to come.

[Timmytour]

Hope of a cold spell worth getting excited about based on what the models are showing is nearly extinguished.

Hope that the models will show something different soon remains.

[SP1986]

Thursday into Friday next week will see some intense snow for a large part of the country, you have to look at the bigger picture models. Lot's and lot's of to come.

I'll happily take a bet on that, work don't pay me enough!

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

so I believe it's GFS, JMA, GEFS, theweatheroutlook, lots of posters on here, pros at the Met such as Ian Ferguson, weatheronline, an AO forecast, various teleconnections Daily Mail (by implication), Piers Corbyn (presumably), Joe B versus ECM operational, UKMO raw, Metcheck, and Darren Bett. Let's have a tug of war

[SP1986]

so I believe it's GFS, JMA, GEFS, theweatheroutlook, lots of posters on here, pros at the Met such as Ian Ferguson, weatheronline, an AO forecast, various teleconnections Daily Mail (by implication), Piers Corbyn (presumably), Joe B versus ECM operational, UKMO raw, Metcheck, and Darren Bett. Let's have a tug of war

I reckon Darren Bett is stronger that he looks (right no more off topic posts from me)

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Just wait and see the UKMO and ECM will do a U-Turn mark my words. Thursday into Friday next week will see some intense snow for a large part of the country, you have to look at the bigger picture models. Lot's and lot's of to come.

Anything making you come to that conclusion Rob?

[SLAMMER]

this comment generally only pops up tho when things go wrong.????.If all the models were showing a raging easterly in 5-7 days then im certain this response woudnt happen.Just a thought.

i know very little about the models but i know this much, people are always forecasting 7 days ahead. It would be great to see what actually happened the 7 days after they predicted. I'd guarantee that most people would be wrong. the ones that would be right would be wrong the next time. Its a guessing game, simple.

[Cloud 10]

ecm 12z ensembles today>>

yesterday>>

[Mac_SE]

Amid all this hysteria and wrist slashing, can someone vaguely sane please give me a completely balanced appreciation as to how the models can flip flop so severely?

I understand there will always be variations in runs, but not five minutes ago Mr Murr was waxing down his skis in anticipation, then two seconds later people are digging out their T-shirts...