The Andy Music Thread

[Marcus_surfer]

Who knows maybe this time next week we could be looking at the same or similar thing!

I wish, it looks very dry for us next week, maybe something more wintry by Friday/Next weekend

[Cymro]

HAHA andy your the biggest cold ramper I know if ever the was one .

[DeepSnow]

Warm day here, just put the new thermometer on the top of the shed in the shade and currently says 13.4c but slowly dropping, when it was in the sun it said it was 16c and it felt like it to! very spring like out there atm! Hope it does get cold again next week and we get some sort of snow!

[Stevetynant]

Blizzard for valentine's day still showing though and it seems to be a 2 day blizzard now - could call it "THE WELSH COLD VALENTINE'S BLIZZARD MASACRE"

Looks like the local weather forecasters in Wales are reading Andys missives on the Valentine snowmaggedon. Hope your your getting your cut Andy.

A second big freeze is on its way next week

Feb 6 2010 by Sally Williams, Western Mail

Comment (1)Recommend (1)MORE snow and freezing temperatures are on the way to Wales in the second part of the 2010 big freeze, forecasters warned yesterday.

Temperatures in Wales will drop to -5C, with a strong possibility of snow by next weekend, it was warned, with the cold snap due to start developing tomorrow.

In more northerly parts of the UK, thermometers will dip down as far as -12C – thanks to similar meteorological conditions that led to the Arctic conditions that held Wales in its grip for the early part of the New Year.

While the latest cold snap is not expected to be as severe as that one, it could still last for up to 10 days, forecasters said yesterday.

BBC meteorologist Derek Brockway said that another “blocking high” is currently developing between Scotland and Iceland.

During the big freeze in January, Atlantic air was “blocked” – in the same way as it had been during the freezing winters of 1946/47 and 1962/63 – exposing Wales and the UK to very cold, biting winds.

“This latest blocking high is currently developing to the east of the UK over Germany, where the lowest temperatures are likely,” he said.

“So this latest cold snap is not likely to be anything like as bad for Wales and the UK as the first two weeks of January.

“Temperatures are likely to dip to around -5C at night from Sunday but should be around 2C to 5C by day.

“We would need a strong easterly wind to bring even lower temperatures here, plus moisture over the North Sea to bring significant snow.

“However, snow is likely and Valentine’s Day has the most chance of snow at the moment.”

Wales is not likely to be hit as hard as north and north-eastern parts of Britain, according to the Met Office.

Jim Dale, a senior risk meteorologist at British Weather Services, said: “Another week to 10 days of ice and snow is on the cards with temperatures to plummet to as low as -12C in places, along with the return of disruptive snow in many areas.

“The snow will initially affect eastern counties of England and Scotland, but will become more widespread as next week unfolds, with most areas eventually seeing significant falls.

“The country can again expect disruption to its infrastructure, especially travel, with widespread school closures and possible power outages.”

Jonathan Powell, senior weather forecaster with Positive Weather Solutions, said: “Winter will be back with a blast as Arctic air plunges nationwide and it will sink below freezing for most of us as we enter next week.

“When you add in the wind-chill factor it will feel more like -3C during the daytime in the north, -2C in the south, falling away to -12C overnight in the north, with -10C in the south.

“There will be some snow on Tuesday or Wednesday, and then again the following week.

“The cold conditions will continue past mid-month, with the likelihood of further snow, before winter slowly releases its grip before March.”

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Certainly would take these charts over the wind and rain we have had in the past.

72h on the GFS 06z showing the cold air flooding in on a NE flow with high pressure centered just north of Scotland and over Iceland. The GFS also shows the increasing risk of snow showers for those in the east- If the high ends up further north than currently shown with lower heights there would be increased shower activity there.

http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

For us in Wales it looks cold and frosty next week with the risk of severe frost returning as we progress through the week:

GFS sea level pressure and Min temp for early Wednesday morning (96h)

http://cirrus.netwea...6/ukmintemp.png

http://cirrus.netwea...airpressure.png

06z Precipitation ensembles for Neath & Pembrokeshire

http://cirrus.netwea...Port~Talbot.png

http://cirrus.netwea...mbrokeshire.png

Looking quite dry up until the 14th/15th then more uncertainty.

For anyone who wants a read Derek Brockway has his own blog here: http://www.bbc.co.uk...derek_brockway/

[J10]

East coast of America is getting a pasting right now - over the years I've always found that about a week or so later after the east coast of America gets snow, we get it! - same thing happened earlier this year too! -

"A rare 24-hour blizzard warning is in effect for the Washington-Baltimore area until 2200 (0300 GMT Sunday).

The storm - dubbed "snowpocalypse" and "snowmageddon" by the local media - is expected to stretch from Indiana to Pennsylvania and into parts of New York and North Carolina.

It comes less than two months after a December storm dumped more than 16in (41cm) of snow in Washington. "

It forecast up to 30in (76cm) 2 and a half foot of snow in the capital, which would shatter Washington's record snowfall of 28in in 1922.

Who knows maybe this time next week we could be looking at the same or similar thing!

from the model thread

"This upcoming spell certainly in my eyes has the makings of being the longest and most severe of the winter"

Very nice snow for America, but unfortunately there is no truth in the myth of us getting snow 1 week or so after America. We may get snow next week, but this is nothing to do with America getting snow now.

Certainly would take these charts over the wind and rain we have had in the past.

72h on the GFS 06z showing the cold air flooding in on a NE flow with high pressure centered just north of Scotland and over Iceland. The GFS also shows the increasing risk of snow showers for those in the east- If the high ends up further north than currently shown with lower heights there would be increased shower activity there.

http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

For us in Wales it looks cold and frosty next week with the risk of severe frost returning as we progress through the week:

GFS sea level pressure and Min temp for early Wednesday morning (96h)

http://cirrus.netwea...6/ukmintemp.png

http://cirrus.netwea...airpressure.png

06z Precipitation ensembles for Neath & Pembrokeshire

http://cirrus.netwea...Port~Talbot.png

http://cirrus.netwea...mbrokeshire.png

Looking quite dry up until the 14th/15th then more uncertainty.

For anyone who wants a read Derek Brockway has his own blog here: http://www.bbc.co.uk...derek_brockway/

Certainly agree that the coming week is better than mild and damp South Westerlies, I think that there may be a little more snow than those ensembles suggests.

However I will take sun, cold and frosty in any case.

[andymusic]

Very nice snow for America, but unfortunately there is no truth in the myth of us getting snow 1 week or so after America. We may get snow next week, but this is nothing to do with America getting snow now.

seems to be a regular coincidence then - we hear about America getting snow and a week or so later it turns up on our door - I've seen this happen many a time

Edited February 6, 2010 by andymusic

[J10]

seems to be a regular coincidence then - we hear about America getting snow and a week or so later it turns up on our door - I've seen this happen many a time

Maybe a few times, but many more times there is snow in America and we don't get it a week later. I'm sure Mr Data will be able to back this up, if you ask in a general forum.

[TonyH]

seems to be a regular coincidence then - we hear about America getting snow and a week or so later it turns up on our door - I've seen this happen many a time

Yes they did used to swear by that. I think they get many more snowfalls over there and only occasionally by coincidence does Britain see it a week or so later. I used to hear it a lot as a kid and remember mostly feeling disappointed a week later when it was not snowing!

Fact is our cold and therefore snow potential comes from the east or north, but America is well to our West, however, this saying comes about as lows crossing the Atlantic do occasionally give us battleground snow, but obviously even if they produced snow over the States eastern seaboard, they will usually bring rain to our shores.

For example, many of our near snowless Winters since the 1990s have I am sure seen occasional heavy snowfalls over there and nothing here.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Tonyh

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Something to watch is what seems to be a front coming through on Wednesday from the east and this has been hinted at on previous runs:

http://cirrus.netwea...2/99/ukprec.png

If the associated precipitation with that front was to come further West then East Wales would be at risk.

UKMO 120H: http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?06-17

GFS 120H: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

You can see the diffrences there when it comes to the high building further north again allowing easterly winds to pull in even more cold air. The UKMO 12z has the high positioned further South @ 120h but the GFS has the high building further North again and more cold air flows in.

The UKMO does get there @ 144h and brings in the easterly again and has a low forming around Belgium/Holland: http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?06-17

[andymusic]

Yes they did used to swear by that. I think they get many more snowfalls over there and only occasionally by coincidence does Britain see it a week or so later. I used to hear it a lot as a kid and remember mostly feeling disappointed a week later when it was not snowing!

Fact is our cold and therefore snow potential comes from the east or north, but America is well to our West, however, this saying comes about as lows crossing the Atlantic do occasionally give us battleground snow, but obviously even if they produced snow over the States eastern seaboard, they will usually bring rain to our shores.

For example, many of our near snowless Winters since the 1990s have I am sure seen occasional heavy snowfalls over there and nothing here.

I understand that the atlantic lows produce either rain or battleground event snow in Wales but when America does have it's snow on the east coast in some ways may be it sets up the synoptics for a similar snowfall potenetial or actual happening for us then about a week or so later. I know there's no actual science in this and for science to be applied some data research into the past would need to be done to see whether this is really true - but a lot of people do say this - so there might be something in it just like the ground hog day results!

[KidCarm]

Not expecting anything much this far west in the next week, but i am hoping for some rogue flurries to come over, Americans struggling at the moment in Washington. http://www.trafficla.../WAS/index.html

Click on the I395 at 14th under the google map.

Edited February 6, 2010 by KidCarm

[andymusic]

Another date for your diaries - GFS doesn't seem to be able to get away from Valentine's day - 18z pub run is showing lots of snow from around that day and then for the forseeable after that, could be an American SNOWMAGEDDON - all the way out to the end of the run 22nd of Feb - admittedly FI but this just keeps happening - repeat - repeat - good chance that as from tomorrow, February is just gonna shiver for the rest of the month - who knows - may be all the way into March as well! woolies at the ready and as from next weekend and Valentine's day - shovels at the ready too - advice - get your supplies in sometime this coming week - make sure those larders are well stocked!

Edited February 6, 2010 by andymusic

[Jamie.]

Imagine the chaos here if we had 76cm of snow like in Eastern US.

We go crazy over a dusting haha.

Mind you, even they are struggling and have been told to prepare for at least 5 days inside.

seems to be a regular coincidence then - we hear about America getting snow and a week or so later it turns up on our door - I've seen this happen many a time

Yes it is a coincidence, they had the heavy snow back in December too and then we had heavy snow early January (although we had it December too ).

Our snow and their snow is from different pressure systems usually... I think .

[andymusic]

Imagine the chaos here if we had 76cm of snow like in Eastern US.

We go crazy over a dusting haha.

Mind you, even they are struggling and have been told to prepare for at least 5 days inside.

Yes it is a coincidence, they had the heavy snow back in December too and then we had heavy snow early January (although we had it December too ).

Our snow and their snow is from different pressure systems usually... I think .

Yep it is from different systems - I'm just trying to say that there might be another sort of connection with the two occurences of snow being about the same time differences apart - it's just weird - in my life time this has occured plenty of times before!

[ourson]

As a relative newcomer to all this business, I'm a bit confused

Looks like a cold spell is nailed on but little chance of snow particularly in the short to medium term.

What's the chances of a real spell of snowy weather later on as the atlantic pushes back into the cold in 7 - 10 days?

[alijoe]

Yep it is from different systems - I'm just trying to say that there might be another sort of connection with the two occurences of snow being about the same time differences apart - it's just weird - in my life time this has occured plenty of times before!

I grew up with my dad always saying that when America got the snow, we got it alot after them. My friends husbands always says the same as well and he is in his 60's so lots of experience lol. It is OFFICIAL we are going to get it this time as well and it is just going to be in wales particularly south east wales and places that have volvos. (Positive Mental Attiitude)/

Edited February 6, 2010 by alijoe

[andymusic]

As a relative newcomer to all this business, I'm a bit confused

Looks like a cold spell is nailed on but little chance of snow particularly in the short to medium term.

What's the chances of a real spell of snowy weather later on as the atlantic pushes back into the cold in 7 - 10 days?

don't think the atlantic stands a chance at the mo - just let the cold settle in 1st - signs of a northerly from end of next week which is looking more severe and will deliver more snow - we may get a few flurry type showers from the easterly as the cold beds in this week - once the cold is here and it gets -5 and below at night that is when the atlantic may try and sneak in but may get pushed back and as it does so will drop it's snow - looks like this could be a drawn out cold spell mind - so just enjoy - the snow will get to us soon enough I'm sure!

I grew up with my dad always saying that when America got the snow, we got it alot after them. My friends husbands always says the same as well and he is in his 60's so lots of experience lol. It is OFFICIAL we are going to get it this time as well and it is just going to be in wales particularly south east wales and places that have volvos. (Positive Mental Attiitude)/

Hi Ali - cleaned and washed me car (Volvo) and the gfriends (mondeo estate) inside and out - flippin nearly killed me - thought I'd do it while we had a reasonably sunny dry and warmish day before the cold and eventually snowy weather returns - gonna be a long spell of cold weather again I think - right into March me thinks

[Jamie.]

Yep it is from different systems - I'm just trying to say that there might be another sort of connection with the two occurences of snow being about the same time differences apart - it's just weird - in my life time this has occured plenty of times before!

Yup I've heard people say it alot... there could be some sort of link seeing as both Europe and America have been struck by bad winters this Year .

[alijoe]

don't think the atlantic stands a chance at the mo - just let the cold settle in 1st - signs of a northerly from end of next week which is looking more severe and will deliver more snow - we may get a few flurry type showers from the easterly as the cold beds in this week - once the cold is here and it gets -5 and below at night that is when the atlantic may try and sneak in but may get pushed back and as it does so will drop it's snow - looks like this could be a drawn out cold spell mind - so just enjoy - the snow will get to us soon enough I'm sure!

Hi Ali - cleaned and washed me car (Volvo) and the gfriends (mondeo estate) inside and out - flippin nearly killed me - thought I'd do it while we had a reasonably sunny dry and warmish day before the cold and eventually snowy weather returns - gonna be a long spell of cold weather again I think - right into March me thinks

Well if I would have know I would have brought my mondeo to you to clean as well. lol Going to renew my radar subscription this week just in case, gosh I really really really hope we get some as snow as would be nice to see out the winter in style.

[andymusic]

Well if I would have know I would have brought my mondeo to you to clean as well. lol Going to renew my radar subscription this week just in case, gosh I really really really hope we get some as snow as would be nice to see out the winter in style.

Don't worry Ali - temps ain't gonna be marginal so even you in Magor should see some more of that lovely white snow - while us up in the hills will get cut off once again!

[Jamie.]

such a funny forecast from the US!

[alijoe]

such a funny forecast from the US!

You beat me too it I was just going to post this. This man is BRILLIANT BBC should sign him up. (especially if he can bring the snow with him)

[J10]

Yep it is from different systems - I'm just trying to say that there might be another sort of connection with the two occurences of snow being about the same time differences apart - it's just weird - in my life time this has occured plenty of times before!

This has been discussed numerous times on the Net Weather forums, there is no link between the US having snow snow and then us having snow seven days later.

I grew up with my dad always saying that when America got the snow, we got it alot after them. My friends husbands always says the same as well and he is in his 60's so lots of experience lol. It is OFFICIAL we are going to get it this time as well and it is just going to be in wales particularly south east wales and places that have volvos. (Positive Mental Attiitude)/

Just because a myth is repeated often enough doesn't make it true unfortunately.

[andymusic]

such a funny forecast from the US!

Let's get a campaign to fly that guy over here - soon get the stuffy BBC met boys to sort their forecasts out - brilliant - enthusiasm - excitement - that's what is needed - BBC are always scared of over doing any particular weather type unless they are accused of "ramping" or scaring people - if a message needs getting over to people do it in the most clearest way you can! - and he sure does that!

This has been discussed numerous times on the Net Weather forums, there is no link between the US having snow snow and then us having snow seven days later.

Just because a myth is repeated often enough doesn't make it true unfortunately.

nothing to do with a myth being repeated - chinese whispers etc - more to do with the FACT that this actually happens a lot and needs a look into that's all!

Edited February 6, 2010 by andymusic