Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread

[alijoe]

well well well - snow addiction - a serious complaint - followed in the summer by a thunder and lightning addiction - covers all the seasons - weather in the UK is just a complicated mismatch of so many different types - makes watching it a "white" nuckle ride rollercoaster - In the end just enjoy what it delivers - whatever that may be - it's a FREE gift that isn't taxed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lol yes I suppose that is one way of looking at it.... but I am sure it is my hair thats going to turn white at this rate with this rollercoaster and not the ground. lol

[top data]

this set up is alongway away so heres a good site if uwant a look ready for superadiabatic conditions

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/main.htm?/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/CFW/vcs.htm

[andymusic]

Well folks - the winter olympics have got off to a bad start - and they haven't even started yet - opening ceremony 1.45am tonight

1. - struggling for snow

even worse

2. today in practice a luge competitor from the country of Georgia has died on his practice run

Just proves how nasty ice and snow can be - and we're wishing for it - we must be mad

Maybe these games will turn out the bad luck games - can happen

sorry to be a doom and gloom merchant - it's the weekend and time to let your hair down - with thoughts of snow for next week!

Edited February 12, 2010 by andymusic

[top data]

wow u can get all those sat chanels free heres what they mean heres the link

Cumulonimbus Cluster - Cloud Structure In Satellite Images

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/main.htm?/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/CFW/vcs.htm

[J10]

Hi all.

Looks sort of interesting for Wales in the next week, all hope you get snow.

Im going to the snowy USA east coast in the morning I would just like to know is there any more snow storms heading towards the NE States in the next week thanks:)

Looking very cold over the NE seaboard, so for New York temps below freezing by day next week generally, chance of heavy snow Tuesday/Wednesday but not on the scale of last week.

A lot of uncertainty remains for next week, the trend is for a slightly lower chance of snow in the short term, but the FAX charts and ECM hint to colder air coming back to us perhaps before next weekend.

However nothing is certain.

[Marcus_surfer]

Hi all.

Looks sort of interesting for Wales in the next week, all hope you get snow.

Im going to the snowy USA east coast in the morning I would just like to know is there any more snow storms heading towards the NE States in the next week thanks:)

More snow forecast for that part of the world Monday night into Tuesday

[BranMan]

This winter should named 'wait till next week' co's thats all I have been doing for a month !!! I think someone has access to all of the charts and is having a laugh at the expense of the forecasters. Maybe someone has bet a pound they could do it for a laugh....

[Wales123098]

More snow forecast for that part of the world Monday night into Tuesday

Thank you must go bed now got to be up early lol.

[Jamie.]

It feels like for last few weeks there's been potential only for it to downgrade a few days beforehand with another potential event appearing the following week. Then the same happens again . When will this snow week arrive?

[andymusic]

It feels like for last few weeks there's been potential only for it to downgrade a few days beforehand with another potential event appearing the following week. Then the same happens again . When will this snow week arrive?

The potential this coming week for "overnight" snow is very good - will help if you have a little altitude too - but not necessarily - will be "nowcasting" and keeping an eye on the radar for any fronts etc.

Edited February 13, 2010 by andymusic

[J10]

It feels like for last few weeks there's been potential only for it to downgrade a few days beforehand with another potential event appearing the following week. Then the same happens again :lol:. When will this snow week arrive?

2011 :lol:

The potential this coming week for "overnight" snow is very good - will help if you have a little altitude too - but not necessarily - will be "nowcasting" and keeping an eye on the radar for any fronts etc.

I think the chances of widespread snow are less than perhaps there were a few days ago, as the colder air is not really reaching us. I think a wintry mix with some snow at times, especially overnight is possible for many areas, but settling snow seems unlikely now except at significant altitude.

[TonyH]

As others have noted, its been a feature since the real cold of early January, for the models to almost constantly be showing very cold 'freezers' a week hence, only for snowfall to not occur. I feel that people should not, on such a basis, try to predict snow events at more than a few days ahead, unless they wish to be left with a continuous sense of disappointment. I have certainly learnt a lot about models and forecasts this Winter, and would be very apprehensive to tell people "its going to snow next week!" More like "its going to snow tomorrow" as thats the sort of range you would more likely prove correct! Its seems to me there are just so many variables, such as positioning of lows and highs, being able to tap into the necessary cold enough air, as well as our seemingly ever present temperature/ DP marginality situation. All in all it is very difficult for a widespread snow event to occur in southern Britain!

With respect to this very cold Winter, although fairly snowy for much of England and Wales, it does not compare with 1981/82 or 1978/79 for snow events and depths. Here we had no more than 5 inches, although it lay for over 2 weeks. At least we had that exceptionally cold start to January with prolonged snow cover, which younger members have not experienced before, reminding older members of Winters of the late 70's and 1980's, and it hit home that even given AGW we can still get them! A pleasant surprise to me at least.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Tonyh

[andymusic]

Guys on the model thread aren't convinced we are in for a "milder" time of it next week - ECM and UKMO are still pushing some quite cold air over us at times this week - certainly looks like a surprise or two could very well come out of this - looks like we may well get some snow

Edited February 13, 2010 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

2011 :lol:

I think the chances of widespread snow are less than perhaps there were a few days ago, as the colder air is not really reaching us. I think a wintry mix with some snow at times, especially overnight is possible for many areas, but settling snow seems unlikely now except at significant altitude.

Jackone according to latest ukmo charts and the met office charts,woudent the colder air tucked in behind the coldfront turn the rain back to snow.the air behind the secound front comes from a cold source.

[J10]

As others have noted, its been a feature since the real cold of early January, for the models to almost constantly be showing very cold 'freezers' a week hence, only for snowfall to not occur. I feel that people should not, on such a basis, try to predict snow events at more than a few days ahead, unless they wish to be left with a continuous sense of disappointment. I have certainly learnt a lot about models and forecasts this Winter, and would be very apprehensive to tell people "its going to snow next week!" More like "its going to snow tomorrow" as thats the sort of range you would more likely prove correct! Its seems to me there are just so many variables, such as positioning of lows and highs, being able to tap into the necessary cold enough air, as well as our seemingly ever present temperature/ DP marginality situation. All in all it is very difficult for a widespread snow event to occur in southern Britain!

While certainly that it is dangerous to over call cold and snow in the FI range, it also applies with some in the MOD who call mild and that doesn't transpire.

Jackone according to latest ukmo charts and the met office charts,woudent the colder air tucked in behind the coldfront turn the rain back to snow.the air behind the secound front comes from a cold source.

To be honest it is similar to my previous summary of the GFS, many place may see some sleet/snow especially overnight, with upper air in the range -4 to -5c, but settling snow seems reserved for higher ground.

[keithlucky]

Still think with the high to the north pushing south we will still see some snow to the end of the week ,and not a static LP. .I see the LP pushed south draging in colder air turning showers wintery towards the end of next week.

[TonyH]

While certainly that it is dangerous to over call cold and snow in the FI range, it also applies with some in the MOD who call mild and that doesn't transpire.

Agreed, but there are consequences and hazards to snowy weather and not mild.

Its just plain misleading when people hype things up, e.g. just a few days ago saying things like:

'could be totally different next week - lots of snow and ice - people getting stuck in cars etc'

I feel the like are ill-thought out contributions and well over the top, with little chance of fruition, and we have heard these all Winter!

Edited February 13, 2010 by Tonyh

[J10]

Agreed, but there are consequences and hazards to snowy weather and not mild.

Its just plain misleading when people hype things up, e.g. just a few days ago saying things like:

'could be totally different next week - lots of snow and ice - people getting stuck in cars etc'

I feel the like are ill-thought out contributions and well over the top, with little chance of fruition, and we have heard these all Winter!

It does and it goes both ways, it is misleading when people downplay cold events as well, that is why it is important to be as objective as possible.

As for the ECM, it does look a bit colder towards the end of next week, the upper temps are -6/-7c over Wales, the type of temperature that could give more in the way of widespread snow. But This is T+144, so this may very well change before the next run.

[benb]

Well I think Tues still looks interesting, if you've a little altitude-

850s favourable, especially across North Wales:

And a more W/NWerly flow (slightly reduced modification from the Atlantic?), with the 528 line moving S between the fronts/troughs:

Settling snow above 200m, wintry mix lower down- that's what I'm saying...

[dyl232]

what the chances of snow settling on low grounds of North Wales next week??

[lukemc]

Hi.

My name is Luke and I come from Liverpool - I normally post on the North West discussion thread but as it is very quiet in thier at the moment, I have decided to pop into this thread as we are not that all that far away from North Wales and when we get snow North Wales normally gets it too. Do you think that I could see at least one more big snow event before winter is over with. Just asking for you opinion as it seems frustrating that we can't get a good set up for snowfall next week despite a lot of things in our favour (like a very southerly tracking jetstream, a -NAO set up, cold over mainland Europe, a retrogressing HP and a stratosphere warming event). What really puzzles me is that we have a low pressure moving in from a cold direction (it is not like it is your standard Atlantic zonal low) and we are still in mid February, not April but according to some - stating what the models are showing it still can't deliver! A good example would be to say that in 2006 many of us had the biggest snowfall of the winter almost into mid March which was almost a full month on from where we are now in this winter! Talking of March 2006 some on here have said that event was quite marginal with some realitivley warm uppers involved and does the set up for next week in any way resemble it? I would be interesting to see what the models where showing in the run up to the March 2006 event considering its marginality. Could it be possible that we end up with a surprise similar heavy snowfall over the next week or too? I not being particularly greedy for snow as we have had a lot by our standards this winter, but I am surprised that the set up for next week does not look likely to deliver the goods considering all the factors in our favour.

Luke

[benb]

what the chances of snow settling on low grounds of North Wales next week??

IF what is being forecast actually happens, I'd say there was only a small chance of settling snow at sea-level next week in North Wales.

The mountains, on the other hand, should get a pasting, IMO.

This type of set-up is renown for putting the 'snow' in Snowdonia!

[TonyH]

It does and it goes both ways, it is misleading when people downplay cold events as well, that is why it is important to be as objective as possible.

Your missing the point that is of the misrepresentation of possible severe and hazardous weather, in which scenarios are publicised as though certainties. This would obviously mislead newer and less informed members. I prefer objectivity and reality instead of fiction. At least the 'mildies' have a far better probability of success (at least in 9/10 Winters)!

[J10]

Your missing the point that is of the misrepresentation of possible severe and hazardous weather, in which scenarios are publicised as though certainties.

I am not missing the point, I just partly disagree with you.

In most winters there are cold spells, so the best way is to be objective with all charts. If there is cold potential say so, if there is mild potential say so. People will soon start to realise who the most reliable people are.

Ramping either way is not helpful.

At least the 'mildies' have a far better probability of success (at least in 9/10 Winters)!

As for saying mildies have a better chance of success while that is true (generally), but this is lazy forecasting, and mild rampers have well and truly had their comeuppance this winter.

This would obviously mislead newer and less informed members. I prefer objectivity and reality instead of fiction.

Generally agree, I tend to say things as I see it. The way forward is to be objective with all charts, seeing mild when there isn't any is just as wrong as seeing cold when there isn't any.

[andymusic]

GFS 00z - Interesting couple of weeks ahead - the saying goes "you have to get the cold in for snow" mmmm well we got the cold in last week but no snow - no precip - we need precip for snow too - well, over the next two weeks - looks like we'll get the precip too - and the cold is gonna be there also - and they are gonna lead us a merry dance - but we will defo see some snow - we could even see a lot - hang on to your hats - the up and down rollercoaster begins - possible backedge frontal snow tuesday morning - more general chances for snow thursday/friday as the cold bites in again - after that who knows but the GFS 00z is showing loads of potential once again further down the line! - and the milder atlantic - it's throwing punches like a girl!

Winter Is Not Over Yet

Happy Valentine's Day to you all

Edited February 14, 2010 by andymusic