Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread

[DeepSnow]

Nice must have what we just had.

Yeah, it started to stick too but just stopped, would be nice for more tonight! lol

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yeah, it started to stick too but just stopped, would be nice for more tonight! lol

I hope so too.

[andymusic]

Yeah, it started to stick too but just stopped, would be nice for more tonight! lol

Fraid not boys - gonna be dry & cold tonight - might have one or two small showers early evening but that's all!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The UKMO has the trough placed further west today- you can see on the latest run at 120h there is a low to the North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

Seems to get pushed SW with the coldest air to our North and West:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

GFS @ 120 hours keeps the trough further east and the UK ends up in a colder flow:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

The snow risk is there early next week, The GFS shows a front pushing down from the North on Monday more marginal further South though for snow.

Snow flurry here now.

[Cymro]

Have a dusting here unexpected tbh

[Marcus_surfer]

Only a very light snow flurry at the moment

[Icequeen]

If it snows in Swansea I'll cry:( now on my hols in north Wales. Need to get back for interview for uni on thurs next week. What's the predictions ATM for next week?

[andymusic]

If it snows in Swansea I'll cry:( now on my hols in north Wales. Need to get back for interview for uni on thurs next week. What's the predictions ATM for next week?

looking good for better frontal snow at the moment!

[andymusic]

Today's Meto long range forecast starting next monday!

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 24 Feb 2010:

Initially on Monday (15th) outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow in the north look likely to spread southwards, reaching all but the far south by the end of the day. Thereafter it currently looks likely that conditions across the United Kingdom will be cold and unsettled with further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, some of which are likely to be heavy. As usual the hillier areas are most likely to experience the largest amounts of snow, although there is also a fair chance that many lower lying areas will have some fresh accumulations at times. During the second week there is a chance that the main snow risk area will move towards the northern parts of the country. It will be windy at times, especially in the north.

Updated: 1256 on Wed 10 Feb 2010

Edited February 10, 2010 by andymusic

[TonyH]

If it snows in Swansea I'll cry:( now on my hols in north Wales. Need to get back for interview for uni on thurs next week. What's the predictions ATM for next week?

Hi, its a bit uncertain still at a week away. Unsettled weather with a low over or close to the UK early in the week will give possible wintry conditions for a time. If there is snow from this it should have cleared by Thursday so you should be OK for travelling by then.

Best check the day before you travel as the following days weather more certain then.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Tonyh

[J10]

GFS looks very promising for next week, with Wales on the western side of the low, other models tend to have more on the eastern side of the low, this is a high risk but high reward strategy, there could be a lot of snow, but also a lot of rain.

With tele-connections perhaps indicating that the models are being over progressive in moving the Greenland High, perhasp luck will be on our side.

[J10]

Light snow flurries here this evening.

[virtualsphere]

GFS looks very promising for next week, with Wales on the western side of the low, other models tend to have more on the eastern side of the low, this is a high risk but high reward strategy, there could be a lot of snow, but also a lot of rain.

With tele-connections perhaps indicating that the models are being over progressive in moving the Greenland High, perhasp luck will be on our side.

Yes, early days yet but I agree it's looking promising. The GFS 12Z run for 6am Tuesday morning moves the centre of the low further east and has all of Wales and most of the UK under -5C 850s, which is an improvement on the 06Z at the same time that had the centre of the low over the UK and the -5C 850s were only over North wales.

ECM not looking so good for the UK but still plenty of time for adjustments to be made, and it does look like the teleconnections may work in our favour (not that I know much about them, but I'm trying to learn by reading the experts!)...

[Snowmadsam]

hi guys any snow likely in carmarthenshire/pembrokshire over the next few days?

[andymusic]

hi guys any snow likely in carmarthenshire/pembrokshire over the next few days?

nope - not until early next week

[benb]

hi guys any snow likely in carmarthenshire/pembrokshire over the next few days?

Looks like a continuation of cold, dry conditions until Sunday for Carms/Pembs, IMO. Atm, next week looks interesting with outbreaks of heavy ???? moving down from the north. Marginal, to say the least. Currently, there looks like there will be quite a bit of less cold air mixed up in that low. At this stage I'd go for coastal/lowland rain, with heavy snow above 200m.

Anyway- all speculation at this stage!

Am I correct in thinking we want the low further to our east and then Wales'd get that cold air currently being progged to plunge southwestwards over the Atlantic?

Edited February 10, 2010 by benb

[andymusic]

Looks like a continuation of cold, dry conditions until Sunday for Carms/Pembs, IMO. Atm, next week looks interesting with outbreaks of heavy ???? moving down from the north. Marginal, to say the least. Currently, there looks like there will be quite a bit of less cold air mixed up in that low. At this stage I'd go for coastal/lowland rain, with heavy snow above 200m.

Anyway- all speculation at this stage!

Am I correct in thinking we want the low further to our east and then Wales'd get that cold air currently being progged to plunge southwestwards over the Atlantic?

yep

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looks like a continuation of cold, dry conditions until Sunday for Carms/Pembs, IMO. Atm, next week looks interesting with outbreaks of heavy ???? moving down from the north. Marginal, to say the least. Currently, there looks like there will be quite a bit of less cold air mixed up in that low. At this stage I'd go for coastal/lowland rain, with heavy snow above 200m.

Anyway- all speculation at this stage!

Am I correct in thinking we want the low further to our east and then Wales'd get that cold air currently being progged to plunge southwestwards over the Atlantic?

Yes- Low further east will bring the colder upper air temps down from the north.

Just like the previous GFS run showed: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Front coming down from the north Monday, thickness seems good 528 Dam line over Wales, however the colder upper air we have is pushed away to the SE and because the low is further west the coldest upper air is going out into the Atlantic: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Colder upper air will take longer to get here as it has to circulate around the low pressure: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

I think a period of snow is possible for much of Wales on Monday away from coastal areas as the front runs into the upper cold air already in place, reverting to sleet/rain for low ground as this gets pushed away.

Best keep watching really- as the position of that low is still open to change.

[Jamie.]

BBC online forecast predicts heavy rain Monday Night....

...

...

...

Nooooooooooooooooooo!

It'll change, it's 5 days ahead... hopefully for the better.

[pascalsbongo]

Windscreen wash froze onto windscreen earlier.

Cold

[J10]

The Fax Chart for Monday is very promising indeed

Yes- Low further east will bring the colder upper air temps down from the north.

Just like the previous GFS run showed: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Front coming down from the north Monday, thickness seems good 528 Dam line over Wales, however the colder upper air we have is pushed away to the SE and because the low is further west the coldest upper air is going out into the Atlantic: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Colder upper air will take longer to get here as it has to circulate around the low pressure: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

I think a period of snow is possible for much of Wales on Monday away from coastal areas as the front runs into the upper cold air already in place, reverting to sleet/rain for low ground as this gets pushed away.

Best keep watching really- as the position of that low is still open to change.

This could be a very good event, and for once, people in Wales should do much better than many people further east.

Look at the latest Fax Chart for Monday (T+120)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=21fffe274415bef319de07ab5e838afd

[Jamie.]

^^Looks good. And the 528 line is just west of wales.

Currently,

CLEAR, -1.2C

NNW Winds @ 6.7MPH

Brrrr.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Jamie.ed

[pascalsbongo]

The Fax Chart for Monday is very promising indeed

This could be a very good event, and for once, people in Wales should do much better than many people further east.

Look at the latest Fax Chart for Monday (T+120)

http://www.netweathe...9de07ab5e838afd

Thats within a reliable timeframe and something to monitor.

Could be good.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The Fax Chart for Monday is very promising indeed

This could be a very good event, and for once, people in Wales should do much better than many people further east.

Look at the latest Fax Chart for Monday (T+120)

http://www.netweathe...9de07ab5e838afd

I agree and would be great for that fax chart to come off- no warm fronts on that for once.

Northern & Western areas do seem favoured we are closer to the coldest air.

[Marcus_surfer]

Very cold tonight -1.5c in the car and 0.8c on Mumbles