Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread

[alijoe]

i also now understand not to trust any of the models because they change their mind more than my wife lol. as last week lots were saying 100% now that easterly was on as all models were saying so and that by now it would be freezing but now it seems that it has changed again.

Edited February 9, 2010 by alijoe

[welshwizard]

i also now understand not to trust any of the models because they change their mind more than my wife lol. as last week lots were saying 100% now that easterly was on as all models were saying so and that by now it would be freezing but now it seems that it has changed again.

ha funny, it is a ladies perogative to change her mind by the way (no it isn't yes it is no it isn't).

You actually sound as frustrated as me with all the weather, if it were not the fact that I enjoy chatting to people on here, I would turn the computer off and just look out of the window everyday instead as it would be better really than building my hopes up and then 10 minutes later finding out that it has all changed AGAIN. but we are all in the same boat and I have to remember that it has been a good winter so should not be greedy, but I like being greedy. lol

Oh and if I have learnt one thing this winter, it is not to tell all my friends that it is going to snow as now I constantly look silly and no one listens to me. lol

[andymusic]

ha funny, it is a ladies perogative to change her mind by the way (no it isn't yes it is no it isn't).

You actually sound as frustrated as me with all the weather, if it were not the fact that I enjoy chatting to people on here, I would turn the computer off and just look out of the window everyday instead as it would be better really than building my hopes up and then 10 minutes later finding out that it has all changed AGAIN. but we are all in the same boat and I have to remember that it has been a good winter so should not be greedy, but I like being greedy. lol

Oh and if I have learnt one thing this winter, it is not to tell all my friends that it is going to snow as now I constantly look silly and no one listens to me. lol

lol i tell people its going to snow just to p..s them off when it dont lol (only joking) to be honest i dont mind what happens as long as it dont rain, but i deff dont want any snow for the next 10 days because i got to tow my caravan and that would not be fun, but while reading trying to see what it is going to do leading up to booking it changes on every run,so i decided to book and i think i may have done good as they still think the very cold snowy weather is again 7 to 10 days away and i suspect we be saying the same this time next week lol.

[alijoe]

ha funny, it is a ladies perogative to change her mind by the way (no it isn't yes it is no it isn't).

You actually sound as frustrated as me with all the weather, if it were not the fact that I enjoy chatting to people on here, I would turn the computer off and just look out of the window everyday instead as it would be better really than building my hopes up and then 10 minutes later finding out that it has all changed AGAIN. but we are all in the same boat and I have to remember that it has been a good winter so should not be greedy, but I like being greedy. lol

Oh and if I have learnt one thing this winter, it is not to tell all my friends that it is going to snow as now I constantly look silly and no one listens to me. lol

lol i tell people its going to snow just to p..s them off when it dont lol (only joking) to be honest i dont mind what happens as long as it dont rain, but i deff dont want any snow for the next 10 days because i got to tow my caravan and that would not be fun, but while reading trying to see what it is going to do leading up to booking it changes on every run,so i decided to book and i think i may have done good as they still think the very cold snowy weather is again 7 to 10 days away and i suspect we be saying the same this time next week lol.

[andymusic]

lol i tell people its going to snow just to p..s them off when it dont lol (only joking) to be honest i dont mind what happens as long as it dont rain, but i deff dont want any snow for the next 10 days because i got to tow my caravan and that would not be fun, but while reading trying to see what it is going to do leading up to booking it changes on every run,so i decided to book and i think i may have done good as they still think the very cold snowy weather is again 7 to 10 days away and i suspect we be saying the same this time next week lol.

lol yes the dreaded 7-10 days Well I hope we do get the snow, sorry for being selfish with you caravanning but I doubt if it will be much so you should still be ok.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'm forecast light snow thursday night and light snow shower friday.

[Snowyowl9]

Had a sprinkling to mini dusting of snow grains first thing,after yesterdays E/NE/last nights NE-ly

Now the flow is coming all the way through the north sea N/NE temps are higher today at 3.4c.

Cloud and sun and a fresh wind.

Probably have to wait until the wind turns more to the east again to see any more snow.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack1a.gif

Like on friday.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2a.gif

[andymusic]

Had a sprinkling to mini dusting of snow grains first thing,after yesterdays E/NE/last nights NE-ly

Now the flow is coming all the way through the north sea N/NE temps are higher today at 3.4c.

Cloud and sun and a fresh wind.

Probably have to wait until the wind turns more to the east again to see any more snow.

http://www.wzkarten3...ics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wzkarten3...ics/brack1a.gif

Like on friday.

http://www.wzkarten3...ics/brack2a.gif

Those showers seem to be packing in mind from the north east - one or two may well get through yet and deliver a little snow today!

[alijoe]

lol yes the dreaded 7-10 days Well I hope we do get the snow, sorry for being selfish with you caravanning but I doubt if it will be much so you should still be ok.

unfortunately right now we are having to say 6 - 9 days I'd say simply because the synoptics for snow in Wales - a slack flow easterly/north easterly - is not a good flow to get snow in Wales - once this has altered to a more northerly flow which it is progged to do, then we will have a better chance of snow - that's not to say mind that a surprise or two couldn't show up with this easterly!

[marclt]

[marclt]

Oh no, according to Derek (BBC) it could be RAIN or snow on Friday... 5c... it'll certainly melt.

Bit greyer now down west but clouds too high to deliver anything.

[TonyH]

i also now understand not to trust any of the models because they change their mind more than my wife lol. as last week lots were saying 100% now that easterly was on as all models were saying so and that by now it would be freezing but now it seems that it has changed again.

ha funny, it is a ladies perogative to change her mind by the way (no it isn't yes it is no it isn't).

You actually sound as frustrated as me with all the weather, if it were not the fact that I enjoy chatting to people on here, I would turn the computer off and just look out of the window everyday instead as it would be better really than building my hopes up and then 10 minutes later finding out that it has all changed AGAIN. but we are all in the same boat and I have to remember that it has been a good winter so should not be greedy, but I like being greedy. lol

Oh and if I have learnt one thing this winter, it is not to tell all my friends that it is going to snow as now I constantly look silly and no one listens to me. lol

Edited February 9, 2010 by Tonyh

[Marcus_surfer]

Oh no, according to Derek (BBC) it could be RAIN or snow on Friday... 5c... it'll certainly melt.

Bit greyer now down west but clouds too high to deliver anything.

only 4.5c here today and feeling colder in the wind...5 Degrees by Friday? It's only Yesterday he said it would be getting colder by the end of the week!

[keithlucky]

Unless we can tap into colder air not looking to good for us down south ,the northley we going to get the weekend isent cold enough ,midlands northwards should do ok,

[alijoe]

Unless we can tap into colder air not looking to good for us down south ,the northley we going to get the weekend isent cold enough ,midlands northwards should do ok,

Thats it......... Im moving to the Alps

[Snowyowl9]

Those showers seem to be packing in mind from the north east - one or two may well get through yet and deliver a little snow today!

LOL as soon as I said that I have have 3 light snow grain showers and 1 soft hail shower all in the space of a hour but too light to stick except where it bounced off the steep roof,still got a line of yesterdays snow again where it`s blown onto one shed against the wind buts that all.

Today reminds me of feb 2005,except without an air frost, last night 0.1c min and cloudy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050221.gif

Clear at least now so lets get a frost to pull these temps down.

[Bobby]

Wales could easily do well from this Northerly:

For example. UKMO looks good too. No point discussing if it'll be cold enough or not for snow at this stage with the Northerly still around a week away as 100 miles East or West could make all the difference.

[andymusic]

Thats it......... Im moving to the Alps

Ali don't lose faith - all is not lost - this northerly that is setting up will be strong enough to bring us some snow - the easterly at the moment just doesn't have any guts in it - it may deliver in the Kent/south east area - but it hasn't any legs to get us snow here in Wales - the northerly will improve things a great deal - it looks like it'll just miss Valentine's day from what I can see from the latest models - all to play for and winter isn't finished with us yet!

[matty lfc]

Regarding the potential of next weeks northerly,we're either going to go out with a whimper or a bang and i've got a horrible feeling,even at my height,it's going to be a damp,sleety,sometimes wet snow affair because ground temps will be a tad too high.Could all change,and given the dreadful performances of the models this winter it probably will,but i've just got this nagging feeling that it'll be a bit too warm

Edited February 9, 2010 by matty lfc

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just taking a look at the NAE- shows the risk of some light snow showers/flurries turning up over E/SE Wales:

http://expert.weathe...021012_0912.gif

GFS 12z does seem to send the high further NW towards Greenland, whereas the UKMO 12z has this process slowed down and @ 144h you can see the UKMO doest have the high as far NW which should result in a more direct cold flow from the North.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png < gfs 144h

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif <ukmo 14h

So drier this week as the high sits close by: http://expert.weathe...021112_0912.gif

Then next week the increased risk of precipitation (Perhaps wintry) as that high heads off NW- How far that high goes is still open to question but to far NW will result in the Scandinavian trough coming to far West and the coldest air being pumped out into the Atlantic as seen on the ECM 00Z @ 168H:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

All a long way off of course, will be interesting to see the ECM 12Z.

Edited February 9, 2010 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[in the vale]

There are a number of potential events (LP moving south over us, with a Northerly driving colder air down) that could (I REPEAT - COULD) combine to give Wales (esp. N Wales ) a real pasting next week. The cold (relative to the Feb average) looks like being maintained in the Northern Half of the UK for possibly another 10 days (if the best bits of the models play out as currently shown) so any precipitation resulting from any unstable air mix may well fall as snow. This is all many days away - and is likely to change - but the potential is there for widespread snow in NWestern UK parts. edit - PS That is the first time I have actually looked at the evidence and formed some sort of forecast, so please be gentle....

Edited February 9, 2010 by in the vale

[J10]

Next week looks potentially very wintry on the GFS. A lot of precipiation and -5c at 850 HPa, very uncertain though and slight changes will make big differences.

ECM coming out and looking very promising out to T+144.

[Snowmadsam]

Next week looks potentially very wintry on the GFS. A lot of precipiation and -5c at 850 HPa, very uncertain though and slight changes will make big differences.

In a good or bad way?

[alijoe]

Ali don't lose faith - all is not lost - this northerly that is setting up will be strong enough to bring us some snow - the easterly at the moment just doesn't have any guts in it - it may deliver in the Kent/south east area - but it hasn't any legs to get us snow here in Wales - the northerly will improve things a great deal - it looks like it'll just miss Valentine's day from what I can see from the latest models - all to play for and winter isn't finished with us yet!

Ok Andy,,,,,I will be like George Michael. Im gonna have faith. Don't mind not having snow valentines day, might be a bit of a problem for my delivery guy to deliver my takeaway

[andymusic]

Ok Andy,,,,,I will be like George Michael. Im gonna have faith. Don't mind not having snow valentines day, might be a bit of a problem for my delivery guy to deliver my takeaway

awwww! -- aren't you going out for a nice romantic meal? looks like the weather won't interfere with the evening now - well at the mo it doesn't but - you never know - the northerly may try and come in quicker and catch us all out - we will be getting snow next week and it will be cold enough for all of wales to see it too!

Derek has just said yet again - snow for next week!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited February 9, 2010 by andymusic