Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The ECM 12z seems to have shifted the high further east than its previous run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Cold air pushing down from the North towards the UK.

[J10]

In a good or bad way?

Could go either way, but things are trending a bit further east at the moment, and this means more of the cold over us.

[alijoe]

awwww! -- aren't you going out for a nice romantic meal? looks like the weather won't interfere with the evening now - well at the mo it doesn't but - you never know - the northerly may try and come in quicker and catch us all out - we will be getting snow next week and it will be cold enough for all of wales to see it too!

lol Nope, I have given up on men the last couple of years, like being single. Me, my son, the cat and the dog and the takeaway. BLISS. lol Ok I am looking forward to next week again now then, well at least untill it changes again lol. At least with these rolercoasters if we do get it, it will make us appreciate it even more. Half term next week so the dreams will be of me and my son and the puppy taboggoning all the way. lol

[Marcus_surfer]

Next week looks potentially very wintry on the GFS. A lot of precipiation and -5c at 850 HPa, very uncertain though and slight changes will make big differences.

ECM coming out and looking very promising out to T+144.

All will change, hopefully more upgrades to come in the coming days

[CardiffStorm]

So the general idea is that its all gonna kick off next week?

[top data]

can anyone explain what this chart means

[Stevetynant]

Ok Andy,,,,,I will be like George Michael. Im gonna have faith. Don't mind not having snow valentines day, might be a bit of a problem for my delivery guy to deliver my takeaway

I thought it was only Valley men that gave Curries instead of roses on Valentines day - obviously we're just as sophisticated as you lot at lower altitudes :0)

Beautiful clear starry night outside - not a breath of wind and -0.5 degrees

[in the vale]

can anyone explain what this chart means

No idea what it predicts, but it is a prediction of supercell motion using the Hodograph technique....like I know what I am talking about!!

[top data]

and this one

[in the vale]

and this one

I suspect these are models used in the States (at a guess) to predict the potential of tornado activity forming from supercells. I am not sure whether these have any relevance over here but someone who knows what they are talking about may well be able to contribute. Where did you get them from?

[top data]

its from the gfs so its american ok

[alijoe]

I thought it was only Valley men that gave Curries instead of roses on Valentines day - obviously we're just as sophisticated as you lot at lower levels.

Well that is debatable? lol Hey, roses don't fill you up so I would go for the curry anyday oh and a wee glass of something .

Yes lovely cold crisp night outside with clear sky and lots of stars. Fingers crossed for next week.

[top data]

got it

[TonyH]

Cold and clear this evening.

Currently -3.4c.

[top data]

heres the outher one

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - monday night into tuesday looking good for a better chance of snow for Wales!

[top data]

so it says low risk super c risk

and no cape so the chance is 0

so what what it saying

is that it if conditions wer right

thats a high risk area

[Snowyowl9]

Cold and clear this evening.

Currently -3.4c.

I was beginning to wonder after seeing those higher upper air temps coming in tonight, and my temps was it going to get below 0c tonight 1.1c and partly cloudy but a nice surprise the first air frost of this cold spell -0.3c

Edited February 9, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[top data]

andy good site 4 u if u ait got it www.lightningwizard.com

[andymusic]

andy good site 4 u if u ait got it www.lightningwizard.com

Thanks mate - I usually use the isle of White one come the summer!

[top data]

but there w charts r owesome

[J10]

Posts from the MOD thread.

Showing parallels of the projected event for next week, from an event in February 1968.

Marginal yes, but also very snowy, and going by current models, this could happen next week.

[top data]

looks nice

but Wow, JMA is Hollywood stuff

what that is lame

modeling precipitation is still not very reliable. If you compare the modeled results with observed values you will realize that the model is nothing better than a first order approach ah

[TonyH]

Not quite Hollywood but a decent frost last night. Low -7.2c.

[andymusic]

Well folks it looks like we are gonna have a lovely sunny winters day today - enjoy it - could be totally different next week - lots of snow and ice - people getting stuck in cars etc etc etc - might get the odd flurry from the east - south east are gonna get the best of today's snow - but next week will be our time for snow!