Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread

[J10]

This is the new thread to discuss the weather in Wales, and lets not go down the route of the previous thread, as it was turning poor in quality.

[Stevetynant]

This is the new thread to discuss the weather in Wales, and lets not go down the route of the previous thread, as it was turning poor in quality.

Is the general consensus - cold in Wales, even very cold at the beginning of the week - possiblility of light snow showers throughout the latter part of the week with the weekend and beyond raising the possibility of further and more prolonged precipitation - but with the crucial point being that at about a week in the future this is too far out to predict with any real confidence?

[marclt]

Please, let's have a laugh but not get stupid! This thread is starting to become a laughing stock!

Now... tell me, what has this week got in store, so I can share it with my listeners... ??

[pascalsbongo]

Hold my hands up there, i felt i was being sucked into the cult of the groundhog.

Phew close call.

Anyway been out all morning with the boy and his football team.

Not freezing, but a very cold damp misty morning,3 or 4 degrees id guess.

Would have preferred mild drizzle to this.

Dont mind very cold and clear , but cool misty and damp a big no no.

Lets get the frosty evenings and crisp clear days in ,then a snow event by the end of the week hopefully.

[Stevetynant]

Hold my hands up there, i felt i was being sucked into the cult of the groundhog.

Phew close call.

Anyway been out all morning with the boy and his football team.

Not freezing, but a very cold damp misty morning,3 or 4 degrees id guess.

Would have preferred mild drizzle to this.

Dont mind very cold and clear , but cool misty and damp a big no no.

Lets get the frosty evenings and crisp clear days in ,then a snow event by the end of the week hopefully.

Up here in the Rhymney Valley last night was unusually damp - the sky was quite clear but there was a mist you could see by the illumination of the lamp posts. Cold and muggy - hope the clouds are set to lift for the rest of the week.

[pyrotech]

I am back online after losing my laptop in a car crash.

Just in time too. The Cold returns, A third wintry spell of signifigance for the UK.

So two weeks ago the GFS model hinted at a trend towards cold Weather at about 8-10th Feb. After 3 days it dropped the idea, something it has done often this year. It then brings it back in the more reliable time frame. Question is does the GFS now have ability to spot these trends deep in fi, then lose its way in the medium term.

So how do we look in Wales?

Most important at this stage is to get the cold established over us, that is now looking really good, so first part will be acheived.

So for first few days we will see very little signifigant snow, think snow grains and snow flurries.

As the week progresses there is more opportunities for slight accumalations with high pressure allowing cold nights with some severe frosts.

Shortwaves will appear and slight changes that will probably add some surprises but where in the UK is the question and its too far out to spot now.

Towards next weekend and beyond there are two possibilities that i can see and both depend on what happens around Wednesday. One is for Low pressure over Med ( Italy) to throw percipitation up over Germany which then heads Westwards towards us. Second is an attack from the Atlantic, Problem with Artlantic attack is that it often gives great snowfall but moves milder air in quickly behind so its short lived. What we need is an undercutting low which gives easterly winds and there is such a low but at this time it moves too far North. There is alot of blocking to the polar areas with good heights, the Med low over Italy has its influence moving North through Europe. Any changes and there will be changes, will give a totally different scenario. The heights over the polar region will happen what we want is higher heights to create blocking. We need the Atlantic low to skim Northern france as too far north will be risky for snow.

So cold with increasing chances of snow as the week progresses. A two week plus cold spell is easily possible from this setup

AO, NAO STRATOSPHERE WARMING hell this winter has been kind to us and holds plenty of further potential.

[keithlucky]

With the showers increasing over east and south uk wednesday,theres a good chance of getting snow wednesday thursday 2cms possible east wales ,possible covering west wales.PP definately upgraded for wednesday night thursday.

[TonyH]

Re the 'we get snow a week after US' 'debate' from the previous thread, this was linked in the Cold Spell Discussion:

[benb]

IMO, this week in Wales looks generally dry, below average temps, brighter in the west, light/fresh easterly breeze. Chance of more precipitation, probably in the form of snow flurries, from mid-week, predominately in the east.

Beyond that, difficult to say with any certainty. Though looking at the ensembles from the last gfs run (for Carmarthenshire), it suggests lower pressure, more precipitation and a rise in temperature. Depression approaching from the SW?

It should also be noted that the operational run is something of a cold outlier- so perhaps not as cold, in the long term, as the current charts suggest.

However, I'm certainly no expert on ensembles- so if I'm reading them wrong please can someone point me in the right direction!

[andymusic]

Sorry if we went over board with the "fun" element in here - I'm here to discuss the weather etc - but a little light hearted banter doesn't harm things surely - but if we must only talk about the weather and keep it humourless then so be it!

[marclt]

Re the 'we get snow a week after US' 'debate' from the previous thread, this was linked in the Cold Spell Discussion:

They don't make weather reports like that anymore!

[andymusic]

Hold my hands up there, i felt i was being sucked into the cult of the groundhog.

Phew close call.

Anyway been out all morning with the boy and his football team.

Not freezing, but a very cold damp misty morning,3 or 4 degrees id guess.

Would have preferred mild drizzle to this.

Dont mind very cold and clear , but cool misty and damp a big no no.

Lets get the frosty evenings and crisp clear days in ,then a snow event by the end of the week hopefully.

the real cold will come

[Marcus_surfer]

I'm not expecting much next week out of this cold spell, Possibly the occasional flurry at times over Wales, esp East Wales, By Friday the 12th i think we have a greater potential of snow and over next weekend.

[benb]

I'm not expecting much next week out of this cold spell, Possibly the occasional flurry at times over Wales, esp East Wales, By Friday the 12th i think we have a greater potential of snow and over next weekend.

Me neither- looks increasingly high pressure dominated.

Ironically, the easterly gets too far west, IMO! We could do with the high being 200 miles further east and allowing moisture in off the Atlantic. Who knows...

Actually, the set-up reminds me a little of a Feb 6/7th in the mid 90s (94 or 5?) when a fairly innocuos looking front ran off the Atlantic, stalled against a weak high and gave a great deal of snow across much of the western side of the uk.

[nomad098]

Me neither- looks increasingly high pressure dominated.

Ironically, the easterly gets too far west, IMO! We could do with the high being 200 miles further east and allowing moisture in off the Atlantic. Who knows...

Actually, the set-up reminds me a little of a Feb 6/7th in the mid 90s (94 or 5?) when a fairly innocuos looking front ran off the Atlantic, stalled against a weak high and gave a great deal of snow across much of the western side of the uk.

Does anyone know how far that atlantic low is progged to move towards us because on the sat24 you can see the mass to the west and something to the east butting up against each other

on the meteox 3hr predictive you can see a weather front slowly moving towards us

abit like benb has just posted

[andymusic]

Does anyone know how far that atlantic low is progged to move towards us because on the sat24 you can see the mass to the west and something to the east butting up against each other

on the meteox 3hr predictive you can see a weather front slowly moving towards us

abit like benb has just posted

atlantic low will get nowhere near us I'm afraid - any snow will come from the east or north east this week

[nomad098]

Thanks Andy

its just that on the weather radars it seems to be making progress is it possible for it to cut under our high pressure? ( sorry probably a vey naive question from a newbie )

edit just gone back to the radars and its just all disapeared in a puff of smoke pardon the pun

[CardiffStorm]

atlantic low will get nowhere near us I'm afraid - any snow will come from the east or north east this week

Yeah, all the lows are staying well away, in fact the UK will be under high pressure all week.

[andymusic]

Thanks Andy

its just that on the weather radars it seems to be making progress is it possible for it to cut under our high pressure? ( sorry probably a vey naive question from a newbie )

edit just gone back to the radars and its just all disapeared in a puff of smoke pardon the pun

no worries nomad - great to have you on the thread - feel free to post your thoughts on the weather whenever you like! - lows can undercut but everything is now switching to our weather coming from the north east/easterly - we may get a low like that sometime in the next two weeks or so - Wales will then get it's big snows if that happens

[Jamie.]

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

This is interesting. You can see how the cloud west of Ireland is being stopped moving west over us due to blocking... it's heading North or into Portugal/Spain instead.

[joo]

Netweather is giving potential snow flurries for the Ponty area for tonight/tomorrow. Should I believe them?

(I'm in the mood for snow as I've just booked my ski holiday)

[andymusic]

Netweather is giving potential snow flurries for the Ponty area for tonight/tomorrow. Should I believe them?

(I'm in the mood for snow as I've just booked my ski holiday)

where ya going? any snow flurries will be slight if at all at the mo

[J10]

Netweather is giving potential snow flurries for the Ponty area for tonight/tomorrow. Should I believe them?

(I'm in the mood for snow as I've just booked my ski holiday)

It is unlikely to amount to anything.

I tend to agree with the consensus on here tonight, largely dry, bright and sunny to start this week, then perhaps more of a chance of some snow towards the weekend.

[Marcus_surfer]

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

This is interesting. You can see how the cloud west of Ireland is being stopped moving west over us due to blocking... it's heading North or into Portugal/Spain instead.

That is interesting, that has happened quite a few times this winter. Did anyone see the countryfile forecast? Missed it

[ourson]

Copied from model outlook:

"yep excellent charts from the ecm noticed the peeps on the country file forecast very confident cold staying with us snow coming peeps even for western side of england.

and to top it off the high does slip off towards greenland.

so couple this with the models game on for cold snow woop woop:drinks:"

Obviously, Wales is considered either insignificant or an extra bit of England.