Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread

[Stevetynant]

you can always come and play with my snow in east wales - i'm sure we'll all see some though

Wouldn't you say Ponty is S Wales Andy (I'm only about 10 miles East so just getting my barings)

Nevere sure whether to get excited when I here snow in the East for us or not - invokes pictures of Monmouth and the Wesh Marches to be honest.

[andymusic]

Wouldn't you say Ponty is S Wales Andy (I'm only about 10 miles East so just getting my barings)

Nevere sure whether to get excited when I here snow in the East for us or not - invokes pictures of Monmouth and the Wesh Marches to be honest.

I would include ponty into south east wales really - covers a few areas then - you are near the heads of the valleys so will do better than me due to your altitude

[Jayfromcardiff]

I would include ponty into south east wales really - covers a few areas then - you are near the heads of the valleys so will do better than me due to your altitude

We're left out on the METO advisories again, nothing for S Wales.

[Stevetynant]

I would include ponty into south east wales really - covers a few areas then - you are near the heads of the valleys so will do better than me due to your altitude

Not that far Easy Andy and on a par with your altitude if not a little lower down which is why when I see you getting optimistic over your prospects I know we in Penpaedairheol won't be too far away either (fingers crossed)

[andymusic]

We're left out on the METO advisories again, nothing for S Wales.

Take it easy Jay - next week will have a few opps for snow at all levels - just sit tight - enjoy the winter olympics on the box and let's just see how things develop after sunday night - complex low coming down could do anything - lots of potential - especially over night!

Not that far Easy Andy and on a par with your altitude if not a little lower down which is why when I see you getting optimistic over your prospects I know we in Penpaedairheol won't be too far away either (fingers crossed)

I know Gelligaer mountain and Deri can get a bit tricky in the winter mind - only round the corner from you!

[marclt]

you can always come and play with my snow in east wales - i'm sure we'll all see some though

Ha ha!!!! Let's hope so!

[DeepSnow]

Fingers crossed for next week then

[alijoe]

Derek has spoken - rain/sleet/snow (higher levels) anddddddddddddddddddd to lower levels also!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ok...I am going to do a Sun/mild ramp dance. If the snow does not arrive then at least I will have something to look forward to (will have to include a No rain dance within that though.... I hate the rain).

[andymusic]

Ok...I am going to do a Sun/mild ramp dance. If the snow does not arrive then at least I will have something to look forward to (will have to include a No rain dance within that though.... I hate the rain).

sounds like you're going to do a lot of dancing there Ali - GFS 12Z is playing more games with us - right on the fence - not sure this will be sorted right until the wire - sunday afternoon and evening's models should give us a better idea of where we are going this coming week!

[alijoe]

sounds like you're going to do a lot of dancing there Ali - GFS 12Z is playing more games with us - right on the fence - not sure this will be sorted right until the wire - sunday afternoon and evening's models should give us a better idea of where we are going this coming week!

Yes, I have to say I am not expecting it now but if we do it will be a brucie bonus. I am going to try not to look now untill tommorow night at any news BUT not sure if I can do that as have a snow addiction problem me thinks .

[andymusic]

Yes, I have to say I am not expecting it now but if we do it will be a brucie bonus. I am going to try not to look now untill tommorow night at any news BUT not sure if I can do that as have a snow addiction problem me thinks .

well well well - snow addiction - a serious complaint - followed in the summer by a thunder and lightning addiction - covers all the seasons - weather in the UK is just a complicated mismatch of so many different types - makes watching it a "white" nuckle ride rollercoaster - In the end just enjoy what it delivers - whatever that may be - it's a FREE gift that isn't taxed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[benb]

4.8c here, currently, overcast with spits and spots of rain.

Next week still shows potential:

Despite the SWerly flow, 850s seem OK on the GFS (modified artic air?)

The MetO has an approaching front out to our West, bringing precipitation and more of a SEerly, possibly pulling cooler air in off the continent, and we're on the right side of the 528 line:

Although it must be said, the track, intensity and 'shape' of the low is still very much open to question- a small change in any of these factors may make a huge difference in terms of rain or snow!

I'm sticking to my forecast of earlier in the week: generally coastal/lowland rain with snow above 200m...

Edited February 12, 2010 by benb

[J10]

4.8c here, currently, overcast with spits and spots of rain.

Next week still shows potential:

Despite the SWerly flow, 850s seem OK on the GFS (modified artic air?)

The MetO has an approaching front out to our West, bringing precipitation and more of a SEerly, possibly pulling cooler air in off the continent, and we're on the right side of the 528 line:

Although it must be said, the track, intensity and 'shape' of the low is still very much open to question- a small change in any of these factors may make a huge difference in terms of rain or snow!

I'm sticking to my forecast of earlier in the week: generally coastal/lowland rain with snow above 200m...

GFS not as good today for snow next week, but ECM looking better especially around the end of next week, with some very cold air pushing in, as for next week, many places may see some snow at times, but perhaps accumulations will be limited to hills.

[keithlucky]

According to the met the LP heads south the the front stalls then moves north eventually pulling in swesterlies, according to ecm LP moves south with LP draging in cold easterlies models all over the place.

[andymusic]

According to the met the LP heads south the the front stalls then moves north eventually pulling in swesterlies, according to ecm LP moves south with LP draging in cold easterlies models all over the place.

detail wont't be decided till sunday/monday

[benb]

detail wont't be decided till sunday/monday

Think you're right- a real waiting game with this one.

I'd love this winter to go out with a real bang in the next couple of weeks: it'd round off a really good season.

Let's hope there's enough cold air in/around that low for a few pleasant surprises!

[keithlucky]

If you look at the hp over greenland that is moving south cant see how the LP can move back north looks like the ecm right.

[Snowmadsam]

any snow on the way for western wales over the next few days?

[benb]

If you look at the hp over greenland that is moving south cant see how the LP can move back north looks like the ecm right.

It's a right mess!

We've high pressure dominant to the NE and NW- a pretty solid high latitude block- and we end up with a dodgy low wedged right over us, making everything marginal.

I guess, as you suggest, we want the low to shift off S and drag that cold pool forming over Scandi towards us.

I'm just so sceptical of the models over 120hrs atm. The last few weeks has shown how unreliable they can be in certain patterns, IMO.

I also think that the glorious cold spell from pretty much mid Dec to mid Jan has, rather unfairly, led people to expect that the dream cold scenarios are going to come to fruition every time...

[andymusic]

any snow on the way for western wales over the next few days?

not just yet - monday onwards - keep an eye on forecasts - lots of potential

[Wales123098]

Hi all.

Looks sort of interesting for Wales in the next week, all hope you get snow.

Im going to the snowy USA east coast in the morning I would just like to know is there any more snow storms heading towards the NE States in the next week thanks:)

[virtualsphere]

I also think that the glorious cold spell from pretty much mid Dec to mid Jan has, rather unfairly, led people to expect that the dream cold scenarios are going to come to fruition every time...

You're quite right there, but having said that we would be pretty unlucky if things turned out the way the GFS suggests, because looking at that chart there is very cold air at our latitude not just to the east, but to the west as well! We were spoiled in Dec / Jan, but since instead of going into a zonal pattern or something else where any cold has been shifted way into FI we have seen tantalising glimpses of possible cold scenarios fairly near the reliable time frame, with some unusual synoptics.

Having said that, the ECM does slide the low S bringing in an easterly, and even though the GFS does show a more SW flow by the end of the week we are still very close to the -5 upper air. The mild SW charts from GFS don't show until Mon 22nd which is far too long away to call, I think.

[Elnonio]

I think we have to face facts guys. No snow for Wales in the current outlook. ( sorry - couldn't resist the emoticon)

Maybe next week but haven't we been here before?!! I would love to be proved wrong though!!!!

E x

[andymusic]

I think we have to face facts guys. No snow for Wales in the current outlook. ( sorry - couldn't resist the emoticon)

Maybe next week but haven't we been here before?!! I would love to be proved wrong though!!!!

E x

you could be right for cardiff - coast and low lying - but hills of wales may still get some snow - Joe B has spoken once more - unfortunately to admit that "he's made a mistake again" - that's two recently Jan 25th and now which he said major snows for london etc - now it's not happening - and one other message he'd like to convey - "The worst of winter in Europe is now over" oh Dear - well have faith - his last two predictions went a bit wrong - so, right now he needs to get his batting average up - I still think we have a little of winter to contend with just yet - still about 4 weeks or so for Wales - anything could amd might happen - If the ECM idea in tonight's models comes off then we'd be back in snow heaven - so keep watching - it ain't over till the easter bunny hops!

[keithlucky]

you could be right for cardiff - coast and low lying - but hills of wales may still get some snow - Joe B has spoken once more - unfortunately to admit that "he's made a mistake again" - that's two recently Jan 25th and now which he said major snows for london etc - now it's not happening - and one other message he'd like to convey - "The worst of winter in Europe is now over" oh Dear - well have faith - his last two predictions went a bit wrong - so, right now he needs to get his batting average up - I still think we have a little of winter to contend with just yet - still about 4 weeks or so for Wales - anything could amd might happen - If the ECM idea in tonight's models comes off then we'd be back in snow heaven - so keep watching - it ain't over till the easter bunny hops!

Look andy how many times have we had snow in wales in march?answer more than any other month, true it doesent stay long but the first week of march is usually snowy.