Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[Guest]

Quiet, chilly, dry, sunny day in Edinburgh. Looks like the forecast snow for next week is edging into the more reliable timeframe (+144), but I'm not holding my breath yet as it has sat out in FI for weeks it seems! Some suggestion of milder air wrapped within it too (above -5C on 850s)? Though looks better (colder) behind, the main front. I can see some nervousness as this one approaches!

sss

There is a lot of mild air wrapped up in it although Scotland looks to be far more favourable than England/Wales. It looks like a rain to snow event at first as the fronts move down but it is probably best not to worry about the detail at the moment.

We should simply be happy that the potential is there.

[Guest]

06z ensembles show why we shouldn't be too worried, there is still plenty of potential. Although that cuts both ways :lol: There is still plenty of potential for close but no cigar. I do like the GEFS control run though :) (blue line)

Edited February 10, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[flighton]

Ive been out the loop for a few days....

As you know off to Glencoe for a couple of days on Sunday.

Will i need huskies or will a skidoo do!!!

[Northernlights]

Hi NL, I hope the weather has improved for your livestock.

There certainly seem to be quite a few showers in your area, hope you get some snow later

Quite a few briefly heavy wet snow showers this morning all thawed now as the sun has come out. Currently 2c.

[Guest]

Quite a few briefly heavy wet snow showers this morning all thawed now as the sun has come out. Currently 2c.

I was outside this afternoon putting new bird seed balls out in the garden and that sun has some warmth in it at last I was out for quite a while with the kids (school hols here) and spent most of it stripped down to t-shirt (and jeans, before anyone is wondering) It was really nice to feel the sun.

5.3C here but feeling glorious in the sun and out of the wind

[asjmcguire]

Hi Andrew,

I hope you got your frost, if not some snow

-6C at Glasgow Airport, I can't wait to see the frost outside

Hi CMD,

Nope didn't get any frost but got snow around 4am (might be able to see it on the timelapse? http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/timelapse/?tlapse=bordersweather_current )

Anyways looks like we *could* be in for frost tonight as we are currently sitting at:

Temp: 2.2

DP: -8.5

Hum: 45%

So we just need that humidity to rise up a lot more!!

see http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/wxtrends.php for an AJAX powered hourly update

[Big Innes Madori]

I see some excitement on the Model Thread at the mo

Engerlundshire must Definitely be in line for some snow in the coming week

Big Innes

Edited February 10, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[Guest]

I see some excitement on the Model Thread at the mo

Engerlundshire must be in line for some snow in the coming week

Big Innes

The rollercoaster is back at the top of a loop thanks to one decent run. It could all be back to where it was earlier by tomorrow, or it could upgrade again. All up and down like an up and downy thing (I thought references to a bride's nightwear was too much for this time of day ).

I look forward to seeing the ensembles though, just to see what the consensus on the trend is....

[LomondSnowstorm]

I see some excitement on the Model Thread at the mo

Engerlundshire must Definitely be in line for some snow in the coming week

Big Innes

Since it's coming from the north, surely logic dictates that we're definitely in the firing line for some snow if those further south are getting excited! Still there are members in Cambridge southwards complaining of it not being a good enough run - looks fine to me! http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netwea...3/ukmintemp.png

http://charts.netwea.../150/ukprec.png

Trough close enough for precipitation but far enough away for cold uppers - good enough for me.

LS

UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Slightly different, probably cold enough for snow also but looks like a reload from the east on the basis of height rises behind the trough.

Edited February 10, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[asjmcguire]

I got so fed up with the recent models guesstimating the weather, and then the excitement leading up to the snowmageddon week that hasn't happened and no FI still saying that we have a snowmageddon heading towards us!

I am now only looking at 48hrs of forecast, and reading anything GP has to say on the topic, although LS seems to be fairly knowledgeable too, and while there may well be numerous other posters who have a grasp on what is going on - unfortunately it is too hard and time consuming filtering out the bickering

Anyways temp now down to 1.3 and hum is up to 50% - deffinately heading in the right direction for frost

[Mondy]

Freezing point already here.

[Blizzardo]

I think we can safely say there is a drop in air pressure on the way......

[Guest]

I think we can safely say there is a drop in air pressure on the way......

Are you sure that chart shows a drop in pressure?? That looks to me like a chart showing the average trajectory of toys which will be launched out of the model thread pram when the 18z shows a 250 mile western movement of the low pressure compared to the 12z.

Edited February 10, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

Are you sure that chart shows a drop in pressure?? That looks to me like a chart showing the average trajectory of toys which will be launched out of the model thread pram when the 18z shows a 250 mile western movement of the low pressure compared to the 12z.

Someone down sarf's going to be getting pretty TOORPed off with this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?10-0

[Cheggers]

Are you sure that chart shows a drop in pressure?? That looks to me like a chart showing the average trajectory of toys which will be launched out of the model thread pram when the 18z shows a 250 mile western movement of the low pressure compared to the 12z.

Toorp stating regards ECM 12Z!!!!

Not sure about weather here (IRH lower floor pharmacy till 8pm!!!) but was clear and cold around 4pm when I last surfaced.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Cheggers

[Snowlover2]

Lol@ the above

Temp here is -0.8°C (30.6°F) DP is -3.7, just went out the back and i was shivering

[Blizzardo]

Someone down sarf's going to be getting pretty TOORPed off with this http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?10-0

And I dont think the rest of the run is likely to keep some happy either, although looking at some of the runs tonight I wouldnt be surprised if we started to see the old easterly making another appearance more regularly in FI which will keep up the interest for the SE contingent.

I feel we are in a nice position north of the border for events next week, marginal or not at times, it will be interesting.

[Guest]

Toorp stating regards ECM 12Z!!!!

Not sure about weather here (IRH lower floor pharmacy till 8pm!!!) but was clear and cold around 4pm when I last surfaced.

Well it's cold and clear up in Kilmacolm so I'm sure it must be the same just over the hills on the Greenock/Gourock border

That's some trek home for you tonight, although the road will at least be clear.

GEM looks interesting later in the run

Edited February 10, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[howham]

Permission to TOORP... feeling a bit bored with this spell already. A few dustings of snow and one brief air frost so far is hardly setting my pulse racing. At least it's nice to see the sun...

Edited February 10, 2010 by howham

[Cheggers]

Well it's cold and clear up in Kilmacolm so I'm sure it must be the same just over the hills on the Greenock/Gourock border

That's some trek home for you tonight, although the road will at least be clear.

Thanks for the update, but staying with a mate in Greenock tonight for a few sherberts etc as need to be back here by 7 in the morning, plus M80 a joke at the moment with the constent layout changes etc.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Cheggers

[Guest]

Permission to TOORP... feeling a bit bored with this spell already. A few dustings of snow and one brief air frost so far is hardly setting my pulse racing. At least it's nice to see the sun...

TOORP allowed, although if you've seen snow.....can I TOORP now

TOORPing is fine providing you realise you're doing it and laugh about it afterwards

[howham]

TOORP allowed, although if you've seen snow.....can I TOORP now

TOORPing is fine providing you realise you're doing it and laugh about it afterwards

Yes, I'm just being greedy really after all the snow I've had this winter. (Picks toys back up and awaits next week).

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Evening all.

-2 C / DP = -4.9. 1 cm of snow lying that fell last night; hardly melted at all during today. Was 2 C same time yesterday.

Cold starting to bite a bit it seems, at least it is here. Slow to start, slow to finish....

[LomondSnowstorm]

Evening all.

-2 C / DP = -4.9. 1 cm of snow lying that fell last night; hardly melted at all during today. Was 2 C same time yesterday.

Cold starting to bite a bit it seems, at least it is here. Slow to start, slow to finish....

I'm beginning to doubt that the NMM is even any better than the GFS at progging temperatures - it should be 3C here but it is currently -0.1C !

This cold snap (if you could call it that) so far has been more like an April northerly, with maxima around 4-5C here, dewpoints low enough for snow and only the occasional cumulus cloud drifting south. The IMBYism on the thread is getting out of hand, with people from the southeast claiming they've been victimised by those who stand to benefit from the weekend onwards! In turn we have differing views on snow amounts, varying from 'maybe something on the Scottish mountains' to widespread snowfall for all of Ireland, Scotland, Northern England and north Wales. As Ian Brown rightly said, the first comment sounds more like the outlook was fairly mild, when in fact, although marginal for many, northern Britain could well take a beating from this.

It was sad to see the easterly shift so far south, as that is the favoured wind direction for many, but the potential for all areas of Scotland is, in my opinion, more for the coming week than it was for this one.

LS

[Snowplough33]

Evening all. I am not even going to look at the charts for today. Managed not to so far. I am feeling a little TOORPy today. Feel a monster change for the better tomorrow if I just dont look at any charts for 24hrs. Can tell from the above thats there is nothing really to look at anyway.

Have a pleasant evening all. To make it worse, we have got Rangers in the next round of the cup (TOORPy again)