Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[Mark H]

Winters over?

Im in Aviemore for a weeks break from saturday,damn it, i wished i had booked a week in mid winter.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Winters over?

Im in Aviemore for a weeks break from saturday,damn it, i wished i had booked a week in mid winter.

If you are planning a wee trip up the hill, then you'll have lots of fun.

http://www.winterhighland.info/snowreports/index.php?resort=cg

That snow is going nowhere quick. I had some great sking last weekend; not seen so much snow since the 80's.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Evening Lady P, i dont contribute to this thread but i do read it morning and night, and very much enjoy it too!!!

Hi Amanda. I remember you from last winter and, on a snowier note, from the 22nd/23rd event - you, Sawel and SP33 's snow reports kept me from going absolutely mental with worry that either the precipitation would dissipate or turn to rain! Cold zonality has been mentioned by GP for the remainder of February, but of course the difference this time seems to be that the lows are likely to be tracking from north/northeast to south/ southwest, so better perhaps for northeast Scotland in particular than the usual cold zonality. Last January was an example of cool zonality, where snow was always possible but never materialised for most (other than very briefly) and freezing rain was common. January 1984 featured this, as did the January 93 storm and, I believe, January 1978. Most of the time these spells occur in January, as this tends to be the most cyclonic and cold time of year, but with north/northeast cold zonality I have no common parallel to relate to really. It must also be noted that these events are common examples BECAUSE they were memorable and brought widespread snow, as obviously cold zonality events with little snow are not remembered by many!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119780118.gif

Actually, on second thoughts, 84 has parallels with the setup described by GP i.e. strong Scandi trough

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840118.gif

cold pool -3/-8 across western Europe http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00219840119.gif

Similarities perhaps http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png

And '93, which tore up the rule book really http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119930111.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00219930111.gif

A similar positioning of a low in 1998, just smaller and with a less dominant PV

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980113.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00219980113.gif

[Mark H]

If you are planning a wee trip up the hill, then you'll have lots of fun.

http://www.winterhighland.info/snowreports/index.php?resort=cg

That snow is going nowhere quick. I had some great sking last weekend; not seen so much snow since the 80's.

Just having a little laugh at the winters over post. I cant wait,dont think i could have chosen a better week,ill defo be up the hill. Well actually thinking about it, any week would have been a good one this year!

[LadyPakal]

Hi Amanda *waves*

LS - keep meaning to say thanks for the recaps!

[Mandy Langlands]

Hi LS yeh re 22/23 i was up until about 2:30 am wrapping my kids pressies, i could not believe that the band of snow in Aberdeen didn't disappear before it got here, was really good to see. Hope for some kinda repeat!!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

If you are planning a wee trip up the hill, then you'll have lots of fun.

http://www.winterhig...x.php?resort=cg

That snow is going nowhere quick. I had some great sking last weekend; not seen so much snow since the 80's.

Yes, a large number of my school friends have headed up there today. One guy said he was only going up to Glenshee and not staying over because he was worried the snow might be gone by the next morning - such a even larger teapot(era?) attitude!! 'At least it will be mild' appears to be in the bin now! Anyway, I told him not to worry about that - in fact, the chance of the ski season extending into summer will increase considerably after the tonnes of snow the highlands WILL (I can say this with a lot of confidence) see in the next two weeks.

Another 200cm? Can't say I could rule it out

LS

Hi LS yeh re 22/23 i was up until about 2:30 am wrapping my kids pressies, i could not believe that the band of snow in Aberdeen didn't disappear before it got here, was really good to see. Hope for some kinda repeat!!!

Bit of a bitter topic for those in Aberdeen I reckon - it was rain there! I know how I would've felt

Troughs from the N/NE moving S/SW - sounds pretty similar to me! Speculation of course but setups like that can appear from nowhere AS LONG AS PRESSURE IS LOWER THAN 1030/uppers below -8.

[Mandy Langlands]

LOL you all make me smile...Kids keep looking at me funny!!!! Howdy Lady P. Have to say i look forward to LS's write up's, they are the only ones that i can understand. Only one other person on model D thread that mentions us up north and thats Frosty.

Mandy xx

Oh didnt realise that LS, Other half works in Aberdeen , i coulda sworn he had said it was snowing there too, oh well! maybe i was a bit to over excited!

[LomondSnowstorm]

LOL you all make me smile...Kids keep looking at me funny!!!! Howdy Lady P. Have to say i look forward to LS's write up's, they are the only ones that i can understand. Only one other person on model D thread that mentions us up north and thats Frosty.

Mandy xx

Oh didnt realise that LS, Other half works in Aberdeen , i coulda sworn he had said it was snowing there too, oh well! maybe i was a bit to over excited!

I think perhaps it was snow to rain there, but really that's just being pedantic now!

New blog entry peeps, hope you enjoy it, though those looking for updates on the specifics of next week from it are going to be disappointed - agnosticism is the best policy in regards to specifics until you look out of your window on Tuesday morning!

LS

[Snooz]

Evening.. apologies for absence

have a lot of catch up reading, first stop will be LS's posts/blog, but anyone care to summarise what is/isn't on the cards for next week..

have been out and about a fair bit this last few days and see a lot of the remaining snow patches have taken a major shift since Monday. Tuesday Mornings little covering brought little but landed up catching us unawares, think complacency has set in? It lay around and looked innocent until I tried to take the car out yesterday, I couldn't get far as although the temps showed mildish the covering on the drive had frozen solid and was not letting me move.. took me until today to get it, the ice, fully lifted after sand and getting at it this morning - DOH! I should have known better too!

Amanda yes Aberdeens biggest problem on 24th was freezing rain, on top of the existing snow base (it snowed on the 23rd around 10pm onwards here and I think Aberdeen got some of that too). It took us 3 hours to clear the whole of our road in order to get out on Xmas day (of black ice, rather than snow as we'd already cleared that in previous days). The Neigbours went out walking and decided the easiest way down the hill was to sit down.. I kid you not!! - I tried walking down but couldn't. Once we got the car, dog & child out however it was a beautiful white day, & very festive drive to Montrose, I commented that it was actually the perfect day for a Christmas Day drive, white, pretty & festive but not actually snowing.. and the biggest problem off the main roads was indeed ice, so we took the long way round. It was the same on Boxing day as we drove home.. 27th we went to panto in Aberdeen and I've never seen the roads so bad in there with a combination of snow and ice - we walked in the middle of the road or at least the tyre tracks where we could.

OK, off to play catchup.. but not the MO thread.. loving the new icons by the way and LadyP's sig!

[Cheggers]

Off on a complete tangent, but on news tonight (radio) it was said that £5 million been put aside to fix pot holes in the roads after the cold spell....... well that should fix 2 miles of the M80!

Temp gone up here to 2.5C, but just waiting on next week now. Great update and Blog LS.

Edited February 11, 2010 by Cheggers

[Northernlights]

Currently 2c here with light rain showers. Any talk of winters over is premature at this latitude and with sea temperatures approaching their lowest point.

On the farm March is the hungriest time of the year for livestock in an old fashioned winter such as this, as soil temperatures are so low after the prolonged cold that hardly one new green blade of grass will grow and probably nothing in any quantity before the end of April. I never bring out the mower to cut the garden grass until the cattle have been turned out to grass as only when there is enough for them in the fields do I consider that the lawn grass is tall enough to cut. This year it could well be May before this happens if northerly and easterly winds rule the spring.

[Mondy]

I never bring out the mower to cut the garden grass

Two years ago, Mondy mowed his lawn on January 31. No kidding. Couldn't do it this year

[LomondSnowstorm]

Two years ago, Mondy mowed his lawn on January 31. No kidding. Couldn't do it this year

Try 31st March Mondy!

Definitely not 31st February though

[Guest]

That's a peach of a sky this morning

Word of warning, don't bother with the model thread just now. It's just full of "we're all going to get snowed in next week" with not a supporting chart in sight while John Holmes tries his best to plead for some sanity and realism.

[Gilly]

Morning folks. 1C..........grey and I wont be cutting my grass either for quite some time yet!

[LadyPakal]

That's a peach of a sky this morning :lol:

Word of warning, don't bother with the model thread just now. It's just full of "we're all going to get snowed in next week" with not a supporting chart in sight while John Holmes tries his best to plead for some sanity and realism.

Most of the 'we're going to get snowed in' seems to be coming from one person - who is in my ignore list!

Stephen Prudence & TEITS have also been pleading for calm. As has someone called LSS... Good quote from LSS: 'My feeling is that A lot of Scotland will be a slushy icy mess, with a few inches of snow a few miles away from slightly slushy ground.' Excellent quote from John Holmes: 'Obviously Friday morning is bringing the comics out! '

[LomondSnowstorm]

Most of the 'we're going to get snowed in' seems to be coming from one person - who is in my ignore list!

Stephen Prudence & TEITS have also been pleading for calm. As has someone called LSS... Good quote from LSS: 'My feeling is that A lot of Scotland will be a slushy icy mess, with a few inches of snow a few miles away from slightly slushy ground.' Excellent quote from John Holmes: 'Obviously Friday morning is bringing the comics out! '

To be fair I think Scotland has far more chance of seeing some significant snow in the next week than anywhere on low ground in England, and as frosty said the GEM is a pretty amazing run for, in particular, northeast Scotland http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-180.png

The UKMO and ECM are pretty similar to yesterday, but the GFS has either picked up on a new trend or gone awol this morning (well not really as the difference in the position of the low is maybe 300 miles!) http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100212/00/126/h500slp.png

though since we have no access to UKMO or ECM precipitation charts that far out, it's impossible to compare really!

The NMM will be useful but by no means to be taken as gospel, particularly when it comes to predicting what type of precipitation will fall out of the sky. Another factor of course could well be coastal warming, especially on that chart I posted.

LS

[Guest]

To be fair I think Scotland has far more chance of seeing some significant snow in the next week than anywhere on low ground in England, and as frosty said the GEM is a pretty amazing run for, in particular, northeast Scotland

LS

So it's all as clear as a bucket of dirty mud?!

I am tempted to get a tent and go camping up the nearest hill next week as it seems that while lowland snow is in the balance the hills are going to take an absolute pasting no matter what happens.

[LomondSnowstorm]

So it's all as clear as a bucket of dirty mud?!

I am tempted to get a tent and go camping up the nearest hill next week as it seems that while lowland snow is in the balance the hills are going to take an absolute pasting no matter what happens.

Pretty much. Lowland snowfall is going to happen, it's just a question of how much, will any of it accumulate, where and when. The forecast for the hills is set snowy, even the upper half of the Lomonds will definitely take a pasting, but how much of that is further down is hard to say really. I can't say I'm too pessimistic about my location in this setup, and nor should you be, at least compared with the rest of the UK, but really I think it will all come down to where that low ends up.

LS

edit: Found this http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html

Credit where credit's due, this warning makes complete sense and you can see why it is just an advisory and why they are refusing to be specific on details. So well done Met Office for some sensible forecasting!

Edited February 12, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[LadyPakal]

Not expecting much here, too close to the sea I suspect. I expect the Huntly traffic cam to show snowy scenes tho'. Still, if I'm wrong, at least it'll be a nice surprise rather than a disappointment!

Actually had a white frost here this morning - I was surprised - made a change from damp ground.

[Stuart]

There is a moderate risk of locally heavy snow falling in parts of the UK at times on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to snow at times as it spreads eastwards with up to 5 cm accumulations in places and possibly 10 cm over hills.

Issued at: 1028 Fri 12 Feb

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/dg_forecast_warnings.html

but it will change before then

[Big Innes Madori]

So it's all as clear as a bucket of dirty mud?!

I am tempted to get a tent and go camping up the nearest hill next week as it seems that while lowland snow is in the balance the hills are going to take an absolute pasting no matter what happens.

Hi Catch,

Driving to work this morning I could see all the Mountain tops of to the West/North West beyond Stirling, all standing proud with their thick coating of the white stuff, like cake with icing. (Mmm cake)

Beautiful day here, just nipped out from the office for milk for the coffee and it feels almost spring like in the sunshine, a great day tae be alive eh

Oh aye, ah hope it's a thermal tent then and make sure ye keep yer extremities covered!

Don't want anything dropping off now, do we?

Big Innes

[Guest]

Pretty much. Lowland snowfall is going to happen, it's just a question of how much, will any of it accumulate, where and when. The forecast for the hills is set snowy, even the upper half of the Lomonds will definitely take a pasting, but how much of that is further down is hard to say really. I can't say I'm too pessimistic about my location in this setup, and nor should you be, at least compared with the rest of the UK, but really I think it will all come down to where that low ends up.

LS

I'm staying calm about the prospects although to see there is a chance of a fall of snow on my birthday is a little exciting! I honestly think it's marginal at best even where I live, I don't fancy the prospects at all for LittleFluffyBottomHampton-upon-the-Thavern-by-the-sea.

Not expecting much here, too close to the sea I suspect. I expect the Huntly traffic cam to show snowy scenes tho'. Still, if I'm wrong, at least it'll be a nice surprise rather than a disappointment!

Actually had a white frost here this morning - I was surprised - made a change from damp ground.

Ah, so it was you who stole our frost overnight then Julie?!! :blush:

A warmer walk to school this morning: just the +1ºC.

There is a moderate risk of locally heavy snow falling in parts of the UK at times on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to snow at times as it spreads eastwards with up to 5 cm accumulations in places and possibly 10 cm over hills.

Issued at: 1028 Fri 12 Feb

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/dg_forecast_warnings.html

but it will change before then

That's it scuppered now. Only joking. Let's hope the Met-o make it 2/5 by the time the orange warnings come out next week

Edited February 12, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[LadyPakal]

Ah, so it was you who stole our frost overnight then Julie?!! :blush:

A warmer walk to school this morning: just the +1ºC.

Only fair - you'd had it quite long enough!