Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[Birkhill saints]

THE MET OFFICE

Advisory out for the possability of snow tue and wednesday

North, east,tayside,fife,south east tue pm- wed.

This is one of those will it wont it situations.I think anywhere north of edinburgh could be hit,to early to tell though it,s on the day watch im afraid.

Off to work have a nice day guys.

Good luck the saintiees...................................... or

[Guest]

THE MET OFFICE

Advisory out for the possability of snow tue and wednesday

North, east,tayside,fife,south east tue pm- wed.

This is one of those will it wont it situations.I think anywhere north of edinburgh could be hit,to early to tell though it,s on the day watch im afraid.

Looks like I'll need to take a trip to see decent snow now. The Met-O had an advisory out yesterday for the whole of Scotland for Tuesday, so today's advisory is a step-down from that. I hope they don't step-down again tomorrow and remove the advisories altogether

Fingers crossed the outlook changes for the positive again before Tuesday though, and in all probability there is a chance of snow right through next week, however marginal it might look:

850 temp ensembles for Inverclyde:

Slightly better looking for the NE:

[Blizzardo]

I like the Met Office 6-15 day outlook this morning. It sounds like an old fashioned early/mid eighties forecast with a lot going on, marginal, but quite likely that a few will get lucky with some heavy snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Feb 2010 to Saturday 27 Feb 2010:

Thursday and Friday will have occasional rain at low levels, but snow on high ground. The snow may penetrate to lower levels at times, especially in the north, but rain more likely to the south. Some brighter spells are also likely, particularly on Friday. Northern and eastern parts could become windy with a risk of gales. Temperatures should be mainly rather cold with a risk of overnight frost and ice. The weekend and the following week is expected to continue much the same, with further unsettled and rather cold weather. Some heavier and more persistent wet weather could spread up from the south later in the week. This should fall as rain in the south, but there is a continuing risk of snow further north.

Updated: 1152 on Sat 13 Feb 2010

Edited February 13, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Guest]

I like the Met Office 6-15 day outlook this morning. It sounds like an old fashioned early/mid eighties forecast with a lot going on, marginal, but quite likely that a few will get lucky with some heavy snow.

This winter has certainly reignited my belief that anything can and will happen with the weather. While there is no reason to think that there will be widespread lowland snow everywhere next week there is equally no reason to assume that there won't be any lowland snow next week (hills will get a pasting whatever happens ).

Anyway, if we were forecast for and then received a foot of snow every week of winter, how quickly would the novelty factor wear off? One winter of that would be amazing but we'd all get sick of it pretty quickly. We don't get decent snow often and this is why snow is so exciting; I know I'm repeating what most of us have said already this winter.

Knowing my luck it will snow really heavily here next week and I'll not be able to get out and play in it

Edited February 13, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

A rather nice 4 C here. Snowdrops coming up all over the place. Makes me look forward to spring which is my favourite time in the garden; seeing flowers appear one after another turning everything green.

Does not mean I would not like one last shot at winter though. We had an incredible period over Christmas/NY, so should be happy with that. Anything else is a major bonus. Agreed CMD that this winter has shown us that those of old are still possible.

As for Tuesday; the models will chop and change. While they can grasp general trends, prediciting when, where and how much snow will fall is a pipe dream. It's wait and see for me. Synoptics are certainly a far cry from standard atlantic mild zonal which is encouraging. Little changes in positioning of features will make big changes in both the short term and longer outlook.

Let's just keep our fingers crossed that this great winter will deliver just one more time. After that; roll on a BBQ summer with a few serious thunderstorms thrown in. If the summer were to be dominated by blocking as the winter has, you never know...

[Guest]

Let's just keep our fingers crossed that this great winter will deliver just one more time. After that; roll on a BBQ summer with a few serious thunderstorms thrown in. If the summer were to be dominated by blocking as the winter has, you never know...

One big snowstorm (a re-run of 11th/12th March 2006) and then spring is fine by me too.

A re-run of last "summer" would be ok actually, if you just substitute August for a drier month June and July were cracking months here, June in particular was a splendid month last year, a proper BBQ month (we had several ).

So March and April 2006, then May 2008, then June and July from last year followed by August 2003 and so on.

That's one for a quiet day: pick out your best weather year by picking months from the last 40-50 years and arranging them into a year....

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Meto 6-15 day sounds good to me. Just missing some good radar watching at the mo.

Edited February 13, 2010 by scottish skier

[Guest]

Meto 6-15 day sounds good to me. Just missing some good radar watching at the mo.

That's a good point SS and in fact, next week could be quite a lot of fun on here as we will not only be radar watching for the actual precip but we will need to watch the traffic cams and reports on here to work out where the precip is falling as snow/wet snow/liquid snow and if it is snow then if it is accumulating.

[WhiteXmas]

One big snowstorm (a re-run of 11th/12th March 2006) and then spring is fine by me too.

I remember that . I used to go to school in Kilmacolm and we were in 6th year that year and the snow was really heavy at about 8.30 am. We got sent home straight away and tried to walk to Bridge of Weir . Infact my mate actually made it walking back to Houston!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi all. I don't think the situation is any different to when I left to be honest, maybe a bit worse further south but looks pretty cold here with some precipitation still so can't argue with that! Will do an update after I've had a closer look but this might be a while away as I've got chores and homework after getting back from Edinburgh.

LS

[Guest]

I remember that . I used to go to school in Kilmacolm and we were in 6th year that year and the snow was really heavy at about 8.30 am. We got sent home straight away and tried to walk to Bridge of Weir . Infact my mate actually made it walking back to Houston!

Sorry WhiteXmas but the snow in March 2006 was overnight on a Saturday/Sunday

[LomondSnowstorm]

One big snowstorm (a re-run of 11th/12th March 2006) and then spring is fine by me too.

A re-run of last "summer" would be ok actually, if you just substitute August for a drier month June and July were cracking months here, June in particular was a splendid month last year, a proper BBQ month (we had several ).

So March and April 2006, then May 2008, then June and July from last year followed by August 2003 and so on.

That's one for a quiet day: pick out your best weather year by picking months from the last 40-50 years and arranging them into a year....

Ok, January, if it is from experience, would be January 2010, if not then perhaps january 1984 or 85. February, again if from experience, would probably be 2005, but again if I'm allowing myself the liberty of going back a bit I'd plump for '78. March would have to be 2006, the same up to July when I might have to go with 2006, august 2003, September 2009 (big rain storm then mainly dry and sunny), October perhaps would be 2008, November for me would be 2005 or 2008 (historical autumns/springs are hard to think of!) and December has to be 2009, maybe 1981 again if I'm going further back than my lifetime!

[Guest]

Ok, January, if it is from experience, would be January 2010, if not then perhaps january 1984 or 85. February, again if from experience, would probably be 2005, but again if I'm allowing myself the liberty of going back a bit I'd plump for '78. March would have to be 2006, the same up to July when I might have to go with 2006, august 2003, September 2009 (big rain storm then mainly dry and sunny), October perhaps would be 2008, November for me would be 2005 or 2008 (historical autumns/springs are hard to think of!) and December has to be 2009, maybe 1981 again if I'm going further back than my lifetime!

It gets difficult in the winter months. For example, do you pick December 1998 (for the Boxing Day storm here) or December 2009?? Or maybe December 1995 which in many ways was better here than December 2009. January could be 87 or possibly 93 but why not 63??

I suppose May could even have been 1995 when it snowed in the second week.

Just imagine you had to pick past months and then could never change them. I know I'd have to have some gales and rain in there somewhere!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

It gets difficult in the winter months. For example, do you pick December 1998 (for the Boxing Day storm here) or December 2009?? Or maybe December 1995 which in many ways was better here than December 2009. January could be 87 or possibly 93 but why not 63??

I suppose May could even have been 1995 when it snowed in the second week.

Just imagine you had to pick past months and then could never change them. I know I'd have to have some gales and rain in there somewhere!!

Hmm, interesting point. Do you want to ignore some cold snowy januarys for a month like January 1993 for one big snow event and lots of gales? Or maybe a massive thunderstorm in summer like, I'm really rather unsure about this one, August 2005? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050818.gif November 2005 was also good because of a generally frosty and dry feel to it.

I'll wait till the 12Z ECM comes out to give a clearer picture but it's still a very complex and marginal situation.

LS

[Cheggers]

It gets difficult in the winter months. For example, do you pick December 1998 (for the Boxing Day storm here) or December 2009?? Or maybe December 1995 which in many ways was better here than December 2009. January could be 87 or possibly 93 but why not 63??

I suppose May could even have been 1995 when it snowed in the second week.

Just imagine you had to pick past months and then could never change them. I know I'd have to have some gales and rain in there somewhere!!

Mine would be the whole of 1987.......... was in Botswana and never saw a cloud for 365 days, average temp all year was about 27C...:lol:

In SA in 1983, the year the drought ended, got some incredible thunderstorms and down pours. Local dam that was at 5% went to 95% in 3 months. Dam about the size of Edinburgh!!! :lol:

Edited February 13, 2010 by Cheggers

[LomondSnowstorm]

Mine would be the whole of 1987.......... was in Botswana and never saw a cloud for 365 days, average temp all year was about 27C...

That would be horrendous for the crops though - the droughts of the 70s/80s in Africa cost quite a few thousand lives at least I believe.

Anyway, back on the topic of Scotland - - I saw Craig Levein getting on the same train as my aunt today, still wearing a tie with hearts colours on it and he apparently got off at Derby to watch them getting beaten by Birmingham in the cup in a game that included James McFadden, Barry Ferguson and Chris Commons.

John Holmes has an interesting blog entry http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=97664

Promising?

LS

[Cheggers]

That would be horrendous for the crops though - the droughts of the 70s/80s in Africa cost quite a few thousand lives at least I believe.

What crops!!! Only crops up there were diamonds. Drought was not pleasant, we lived through 5 years of it and wouldn't wish it upon anyone.

Anyway, just took a peep in MDT and it still looks good for a nice Birthday prezzie for me and Catch.... maybe! Don't mind if it's a few days late. Further out looks good as well, certainly no mild mush for a while...... well not had mild mush since........... forgot when.

[Guest]

Mine would be the whole of 1987.......... was in Botswana and never saw a cloud for 365 days, average temp all year was about 27C...

That kind of weather would burst my head!!

It's actually starting to affect me that we haven't had proper rain/gales since November, not as bad as the lack of sun was getting last week, but bad enough

Ooooo, I'm a sensitive soul

Next week's weather and the will it/won't it snow just looks more and more as clear as freezing fog at midnight.

[LomondSnowstorm]

That kind of weather would burst my head!!

It's actually starting to affect me that we haven't had proper rain/gales since November, not as bad as the lack of sun was getting last week, but bad enough

Ooooo, I'm a sensitive soul

Next week's weather and the will it/won't it snow just looks more and more as clear as freezing fog at midnight.

More talk of a northeasterly behind the low from some pretty experienced members, and given the signals which have been showing for about two weeks now I certainly wouldn't bet against it, but dewpoint watching next week will be as important as radar watching. It's more exciting a setup for the thread than if it were just a set in stone cold outlook with maybe some precipitation as it adds extra dimensions to the setup, but not very good for anyone trying to forecast it!

And for once Fife has a warning while highland perthshire doesn't! How long that will last I have no idea but I do like it!

LS

[Cheggers]

That kind of weather would burst my head!!

It's actually starting to affect me that we haven't had proper rain/gales since November, not as bad as the lack of sun was getting last week, but bad enough

Ooooo, I'm a sensitive soul

When your 15 with a pool and all other teenage items, 365 days of sun was bliss, although I recall a few single figure nights, scorpions not very active so was safer to walk around at night.

Got to the point where what will happen will happen next week, but I'm sure snow will descend upon us before winters out.

[WhiteXmas]

Sorry WhiteXmas but the snow in March 2006 was overnight on a Saturday/Sunday

Oops... I am thinking of 2007

[Guest]

When your 15 with a pool and all other teenage items, 365 days of sun was bliss, although I recall a few single figure nights, scorpions not very active so was safer to walk around at night.

Got to the point where what will happen will happen next week, but I'm sure snow will descend upon us before winters out.

Even at 15 I would have wanted some "weather". Couldn't be doing with all the crawlies too!!

As for next week, you are right, what will happen will happen. I think if you go in expecting snow then you're setting yourself up for a big disappointment unless you live up a big hill. If we hadn't just had that Dec and Jan then everything would be riding on next week. As it is this winter we've had our cake, with icing on, we got to eat it and now we have a chance at another cake

Just one big snowfall. Just one foot.

[Guest]

Oops... I am thinking of 2007

Possibly January 2007? I don't think we had any/much snow in March 2007. January 2007 was pretty good, the Kilmacolm snow made it onto Reporting Scotland

That was the snow where we got a good few inches and Ross B in Kilmarnock had 9C and rain...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just one big snowfall. Just one foot.

I'm not looking for much either. If I could just beat the picnic bench.....

edit: don't know about anyone else, but I'm dying for some action to start, even if it is all rain at first, as generally progged for tomorrow. All this sitting around waiting for a change from this HP sitting over us is getting frustrating.

Edited February 13, 2010 by scottish skier

[LadyPakal]

Well, I actually got out in the garden and did some stuff in kinda sunshine - got up to 7 degrees today - 'til my fingers got too damp & cold anyway. Made a nice change - for a wee while. I bet the wildlife are loving it at the moment - they have had it rough this winter.