Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[LadyPakal]

Folks,

Shhh, It might a foriegn fisherman casting his line here in our Scottish waters tae see if he gets a few nibbles, or can hook a big one

What he disnae realise is

Thur nae gaid if thur nae trawled

Big Innes

It's no bothering me - I always have my ignore to fall back on!

Anyway, some excitement starting on the model thread as the low shifts east on the 12z... Why they hang on every little change is beyond my understanding. Watch but be patient - the weather will do whatever it wants.

Edited February 11, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Gilly]

The one thing about I like about this thread is the friendly good natured banter and tolerance of others views and their ignorance of reading weather models. Some of us are weather watchers rather than weather forecasters. We leave that to the knowledgeable and those who want to learn.

As for the "winters over" comment we see posted from time to time.........well I sum it up in one word......rubbish.

Frequently we see extensive snow falls in March and Apriil and last year had snow in June!

We are not the MT and this is a 'no toorping' zone, well almost never!!!

[Gilly]

5C and the chance of proper snow at the beginning of the week ebbing. Still one of the snowiest winters up here for some time and coldest.

Edited February 11, 2010 by Gilly

[Cheggers]

I want a blizzard for my birthday present, and assume Catch might enjoy it as well...... will await a more readable update from LS later hopefully.

1.8C here and dropping quickly.

[asjmcguire]

.....and most importantly is this:

even if winter is/was over... there will be another and another and another etc..... and some winters might be mild, some not quite so mild.

Personally I don't hold much faith in this global climate change nonsense, and thankfully it seems from what Reporting Scotland have been saying recently - a lot of Scots have come to their senses and are dismissing it as a load of nonsense too (so not all the world has gone insane after all - phew!)

and I certainly can't complain after what I've had this winter!!

In any case as I have a PWS I have been keeping records since 2007 - which you can see updated every month on my weather site at www.bordersweather.co.uk and you can see the climate history for each month for each year at http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/wxclimate.php and even if my weather station might not be located in the most optimal position - it still gives a different view on the "hockey stick" graphs!

2 Winters in a row with cold winters and 2 summers in a row that were essentially rubbish.... this could well be the start of a new trend......

[Guest]

I would recommend this as a good read on next week's chances from John Holmes:

*scroll up to first post in following thread, linky not working nicely *

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61410-will-it-snow-at-low-level-next-week/page__pid__1772418__st__0entry1772418

In summary: widespread lowland snow unlikely but more chance on Tuesday than Monday and with altitude, etc.

Edit: Remember that this is a UK wide view JH is giving

Edited February 11, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Snowplough33]

I hear that winter is over . Sorry couldn't resist.

Is there some possible snow heading our way. Trying to ween myself off from the evil charts!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I guarantee that this Monday/Tuesday will be a total non-event for everyone apart from the hills. Way to marginal and in my experience this usually means it will be a damp squid. Met Office are not making anything of it, and i am with them. I don't believe anything on charts 5 days out or more.

This winter is over.

Maybe in Little Fluffybottom upon Thames, but it's cold up here. Think I'll go make a snowball with what's lying in the garden.

Thanks for the well balanced view and excellent supporting charts though. Something we rarely see in the model thread but common in here.

edit: Ok, see everyone's already done this! As for moderators - we don't need one, we can do that quite well ourselves it seems

Edited February 11, 2010 by scottish skier

[GraemeB]

Phew..what a day.

Pure panicking = rushing round Primark getting all me swimmies and shorts for next week onwards..

And, I forgot to get new sunglasses, so that's me having to go back in again tomorrow.

Argh.

That aside - that was quite a temperature swing today, -5 this morning to +9 this afternoon in the Weej.... winter's gone on holiday I think.

[Snowlover2]

No winters not over.........Is it

[Gilly]

Phew..what a day.

Pure panicking = rushing round Primark getting all me swimmies and shorts for next week onwards..

And, I forgot to get new sunglasses, so that's me having to go back in again tomorrow.

Argh.

That aside - that was quite a temperature swing today, -5 this morning to +9 this afternoon in the Weej.... winter's gone on holiday I think.

hmmmph.........wanting to make us all jealous? you have succeeded........ hope you have a great time.

[GBM]

Maybe in Little Fluffybottom upon Thames, but it's cold up here. Think I'll go make a snowball with what's lying in the garden.

Thanks for the well balanced view and excellent supporting charts though. Something we rarely see in the model thread but common in here.

Actually i am Scottish and don't live that far from you. I was being facetious with my earlier comment, but people obviously did not pick up on this. This will be my last post. I am actuallly shocked at the way some of the so-called 'respected' and 'regular' contributors reacted to my post. I haven't contributed, but i have been reading all posts avidly throughout this winter. I will stick to being on the periphery.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

No winters not over.........Is it

No, in Scotland, winter ends in June when autumn starts. No need to panic.

[GraemeB]

hmmmph.........wanting to make us all jealous? you have succeeded........ hope you have a great time.

Hehe I wiz bein silly

Argh - just found out nw is on lofi for mobiles ! Nice !

Edited February 11, 2010 by GraemeB

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Actually i am Scottish and don't live that far from you. I was being facetious with my earlier comment, but people obviously did not pick up on this. This will be my last post. I am actuallly shocked at the way some of the so-called 'respected' and 'regular' contributors reacted to my post. I haven't contributed, but i have been reading all posts avidly throughout this winter. I will stick to being on the periphery.

There are plenty of stirrers out there. Thankfully they don't pop in here much.

Your first post was a little OTT, like marching into someones else's party and shouting 'this is crap'. so folk reacted accordingly, esp as you're new and not showing where you are from. We can't see faces on a forum so you're judged by your words... Hence emoticons are handy.

By all means don't post again, but we are friendly in here (even the reactions to your post are funny, not nasty) and if you want to join in friendly banter without ramping/damping or winding folk up, I am sure you'll be welcome.

edit: after watching from the periphery myself for over a year, I joined up and have felt very welcome.

Edited February 11, 2010 by scottish skier

[Birkhill saints]

Actually i am Scottish and don't live that far from you. I was being facetious with my earlier comment, but people obviously did not pick up on this. This will be my last post. I am actuallly shocked at the way some of the so-called 'respected' and 'regular' contributors reacted to my post. I haven't contributed, but i have been reading all posts avidly throughout this winter. I will stick to being on the periphery.

That was quick gbm in and out on 6 posts.Does gbm stand for "gone before monday"?

There is a lot of tong in cheek on here mate so don,t take in to heart,as you can see i don,t post to mutch since joining over a year ago just learning like you.

Now that blizzard..................................................................

[Snowlover2]

That was quick gbm in and out on 6 posts.Does gbm stand for "gone before monday"?

There is a lot of tong in cheek on here mate so don,t take in to heart,as you can see i don,t post to mutch since joining over a year ago just learning like you.

Now that blizzard..................................................................

Hahahah, now that made me giggle

[Snowplough33]

Actually i am Scottish and don't live that far from you. I was being facetious with my earlier comment, but people obviously did not pick up on this. This will be my last post. I am actuallly shocked at the way some of the so-called 'respected' and 'regular' contributors reacted to my post. I haven't contributed, but i have been reading all posts avidly throughout this winter. I will stick to being on the periphery.

OK mate, I made a remark about your post. Just a bit of a laugh, cause not much snow to talk about. Actually, not much cold even to talk about even. I am new here too, but is friendly and the "long term posters"are really helpful. No hard feelings......post away.........just tongue in cheek rubbish......

[Mandy Langlands]

lol i dont post much cause you lot have a wee language of your own going on....... have tried to decipher some of the meanings to these few words but for the life of me i cant. But yeh your all nuts and really enjoy reading what is going on. GBM please could you put your location in... so we know where you are. Keep the laughs going guys, its fun.

Mandy x

[LomondSnowstorm]

Welcome to the thread GBM

Sarcasm permitted here, I assure you, in fact it's pretty much a requirement at times

Dewpoints on Monday at 12pm are too high for most http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/11/basis12/ukuk/taup/10021512_1112.gif

By evening they drop to below freezing for most though http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/11/basis12/ukuk/taup/10021606_1112.gif

Messy is the key word on Tuesday though http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/123/prectypeuktopo.png

Overnight into Wednesday perhaps a bit better though http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/138/prectypeuktopo.png

The height of 0C isotherm is quite key also, look for maybe below 400m for best snow chance.

No chance Monday at 12pm http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/96/0degisotherm.png

Better further east on Tuesday morning

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/114/0degisotherm.png

Transferring further west as the day goes on: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/120/0degisotherm.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/126/0degisotherm.png

Differences between these depend a lot on the position of the low e.g. the 12Z has this right over southern Scotland

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/126/h500slp.png

while the 6Z has it further southwest http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/06/132/h500slp.png

This means that the 0C isotherm is lower - http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/06/138/0degisotherm.png

The low looks like it will keep on sinking, bringing either a northerly or an easterly in behind

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/153/h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/06/159/h850t850eu.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?11-0

The ECM ends up with a proper PV drop http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?11-0

Note the reason for the less cold uppers in the low - this low originated in Iceland, while the cold air was funnelled east and west of the UK.

This is shown on the UKMO at 72 hours http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN72-21.GIF?11-18

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN72-7.GIF?11-18

Anyway agreement on the low's positioning at 144 hours is quite staggering really http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?11-18

So, in summary, cold rain on Monday, drier and probably icier by the evening, lot's of sleet and snow around on Tuesday with a very messy setup and some areas likely to see quite a lot of lying snow due to the probable intensity of it while Tuesday night into Wednesday has a continuing risk of snow

with colder air beginning to show its hand in the east and northeast.

The roads are likely to take a pounding in pretty much all areas as the accumulations of snow/slush/rain are liable to freeze at times, particularly Monday and Tuesday night.

LS

[Snowplough33]

Awesome forecast tonight LS.........in terms of depth and number of charts put together in your post. Cheers.

[LadyPakal]

Well GBM seems to have brought a few lurkers out of hiding - welcome all!

Nothing serious going on here...

[Mandy Langlands]

Evening Lady P, i dont contribute to this thread but i do read it morning and night, and very much enjoy it too!!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Awesome forecast tonight LS.........in terms of depth and number of charts put together in your post. Cheers.

Hear hear LSS

[Snowplough33]

Well GBM seems to have brought a few lurkers out of hiding - welcome all!

Nothing serious going on here...

Good day LP.

TROOP at the bottom of your message is priceless .

Wonder if we will extend this into a warm weather thread in months to come.........dreaming of 2010/11 winter snow events