Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

As it's kind of in here, time to spam the thread.

Puts my picnic bench to shame.

[Gilly]

As it's kind of in here, time to spam the thread.

Puts my picnic bench to shame.

LOLOLOLOLOL love it!!! Be careful.........Lady Pakal may send you to the naughty step for winding them up! On second thoughts she may encourage you.....

[LomondSnowstorm]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a very wintry mix as it happens on Monday night, lots depends on the exact timing but dew points and temps may be close enough to marginal to allow any heavier bursts to turn to snow, whilst it probably won't be the settling type so to speak, there is a risk even in the Se/EA....all about the timing really.

I'm personally quite interested in E.Scotland myself for Tuesday night looking at the current models, esp if the wrap round comes far enough west...

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100213/18/72/ukprec.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW72-594.GIF?13-18

Very much a hard to call situation as to whether that band can make it further southwest. The second prize of course isn't too bad - http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100213/18/96/prectypeuktopo.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100213/18/96/ukpaneltemp.png

but this could turn out to be a biggie http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVK89.png

LS

[kold weather]

The pattern looks quite interesting for you guys up there, as soon as the low pressure system gets south of your latitude then temps will become more favourable for frontal snow events, esp as the air getting dragged in is probably the right side of marginal and I would not be all that surprised to see you guys get several decent snow events in the next 7-10 days, looks quite good IMO...

[LomondSnowstorm]

The pattern looks quite interesting for you guys up there, as soon as the low pressure system gets south of your latitude then temps will become more favourable for frontal snow events, esp as the air getting dragged in is probably the right side of marginal and I would not be all that surprised to see you guys get several decent snow events in the next 7-10 days, looks quite good IMO...

Hah, just quoted another post from your good self above! Charts like these probably sum what you're saying up http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021312/NSea_2010021312_thgt850_168.png

and this http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010021312/NSea_2010021312_thgt850_216.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100213/18/138/h850t850eu.png

Coastal marginality an issue at times perhaps? Not for long but with uppers above -8 and an easterly wind it's plausible..

Anyway, at least the uppers are below -5 and precipitation is falling, we'll worry about the rest at the time!

LS

[kold weather]

Yeah its possibly going to be an issue for coastal areas due to the wind direction, still even if the first chance doesn't set-up quite right I've got a feeling there will probably be 2-3 decent snow risks for quite a large chunk of Scotland, and this may well extend down into N.England as well at times I suspect.

Of course for now its just a risk, but this has me interested, even though I'm well south from Scotland!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yeah its possibly going to be an issue for coastal areas due to the wind direction, still even if the first chance doesn't set-up quite right I've got a feeling there will probably be 2-3 decent snow risks for quite a large chunk of Scotland, and this may well extend down into N.England as well at times I suspect.

Of course for now its just a risk, but this has me interested, even though I'm well south from Scotland!

Ten miles inland of the North Sea, 76m asl (higher than I first thought but checked on map and it appears to be correct) with 500m hills three miles to the south and west - I think perhaps it's too hard to call at this stage!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Ten miles inland of the North Sea, 76m asl (higher than I first thought but checked on map and it appears to be correct) with 500m hills three miles to the south and west - I think perhaps it's too hard to call at this stage!

At close to 200 m asl and well inland, I remain confident of some fun next week. Being away from the coast makes a huge difference for sure, even with just a little height. Over the run-up/end of the Christmas/NY cold spell, I remember how strangely consistent the 'lying' snowline was on my journey back from work. Sheriffhall on the bypass was generally unaffected by lying snow, but just a gentle climb to Pathead on the A68 and hello lots of snow. Similar up towards Dreghorn on the bypass; just a wee bit of height and that touch inland making a huge difference.

Lived in North Berwick right on the NS coast from ages 9-18. That was no snow city. Only a serious easterly delivered...

Looking forward to some T, DP, radar etc fun next week. Will certainly keep us on our toes.

Edited February 14, 2010 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

Mmmm, I had sort of thrown in the towel for another cold spell out of this winter but reading through the model thread, some of the more experienced on there eg EITS, Tamara,Cooling Climate etc all appear to be pretty convinced that the models have got it wrong at the moment. I have to say that Tamara's post was very confident and she doesn't usually commit herself like that. I think that just maybe something will come out of this yet. I see kold is also quite positive. My only concern is that the Fife snow shield will spoil any show once again! It does appear to have been working extremely well this winter!

Edited February 14, 2010 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

Mmmm, I had sort of thrown in the towel for another cold spell out of this winter but reading through the model thread, some of the more experienced on there eg EITS, Tamara,Cooling Climate etc all appear to be pretty convinced that the models have got it wrong at the moment. I have to say that Tamara's post was very confident and she doesn't usually commit herself like that. I think that just maybe something will come out of this yet.

In the sense of -10 uppers for a sustained period then perhaps we're struggling a little but snowfall wise it isn't looking too bad at all, even without a proper northeasterly

Anyway, the thread has now properly become like primary school

I think noballz secretly fancies me but is afraid to say.

In case you haven't followed snowballz joined about a month ago, started arguing with TEITS saying he was a snowramper and laughed at him mentioning the 'seagulls seen before an easterly' idea, it got a bit out of hand and some other senior members waided in (which was quite funny I must say) and now the post above was made! Who cares about the weather when there's so much entertainment on here!

LS

[blitzen]

Yes, I have been following the saga! Thought it was a bit below the belt tho' when she belittled his disability. It's good that he can joke about it tho'

[LomondSnowstorm]

At close to 200 m asl and well inland, I remain confident of some fun next week. Being away from the coast makes a huge difference for sure, even with just a little height. Over the run-up/end of the Christmas/NY cold spell, I remember how strangely consistent the 'lying' snowline was on my journey back from work. Sheriffhall on the bypass was generally unaffected by lying snow, but just a gentle climb to Pathead on the A68 and hello lots of snow. Similar up towards Dreghorn on the bypass; just a wee bit of height and that touch inland making a huge difference.

Lived in North Berwick right on the NS coast from ages 9-18. That was no snow city. Only a serious easterly delivered...

Looking forward to some T, DP, radar etc fun next week. Will certainly keep us on our toes.

You'll do well, North Berwick won't (probably not much though maybe a covering at times), I might, is the general summary here.

I see kold is also quite positive. My only concern is that the Fife snow shield will spoil any show once again! It does appear to have been working extremely well this winter!

Comparative to other areas e.g. Lauder but think about it - we had more this year so far than Aboyne did all of last winter! I've had more days of snow lying and snow falling than in all the other winters of the last 8 years combined! Perhaps lacking that one big frontal dumping but can't possibly complain about snowshield this year IMO!

[Guest]

Yes, I have been following the saga! Thought it was a bit below the belt tho' when she belittled his disability. It's good that he can joke about it tho'

I think she is a he, but that's just my opinion It has happened before.

Next week looks as clear as a dark room would look if you closed your eyes. But to repeat myself and other posters in here, that should actually make it an interesting week coming up.

[Airedalejoe]

I think she is a he, but that's just my opinion It has happened before.

Next week looks as clear as a dark room would look if you closed your eyes. But to repeat myself and other posters in here, that should actually make it an interesting week coming up.

She's got to be a he, and a very annoying one at that!

[Gilly]

The pattern looks quite interesting for you guys up there, as soon as the low pressure system gets south of your latitude then temps will become more favourable for frontal snow events, esp as the air getting dragged in is probably the right side of marginal and I would not be all that surprised to see you guys get several decent snow events in the next 7-10 days, looks quite good IMO...

Thanks KW. We are hopeful this will give a decent covering on the lower levels too this time.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

As far as I can see, looking possibly quite chilly in Scotland next week, with some snow potential for many, esp away from the coast with a bit of altitude.

Model thread has some toys being thrown from the pram and some being thrown back in as things looking significantly more marginal in Little Fluffybottom on the Wold.

Looking forward to LSS's views as the Low P draws closer and the weather becomes more active.

[blitzen]

Morning all. just having a peep at the six. That system that is coming off the eastern seaboard. Is that the one that gave Washington etc all the snow? Any chance that if it makes it across here it could interact with our systems and produce the goods? It would certainly tie in with the weather lore regarding Britain possibly/usually receiving a watered down version 2/3 weeks later.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Model thread update for 10:58 on 14-02-10.

Status:

[Gilly]

Its all coming into a time frame we can believe in. Roll on tuesday for us!!

[Stuart]

and the metoffice just just takeing the Advisory off for all of Scotland it time for me to have a good old

Edited February 14, 2010 by Stuart

[Gilly]

Model thread update for 10:58 on 14-02-10.

Status:

You are so right.........they are off again!!!

Edited February 14, 2010 by Gilly

[Guest]

Morning all. just having a peep at the six. That system that is coming off the eastern seaboard. Is that the one that gave Washington etc all the snow? Any chance that if it makes it across here it could interact with our systems and produce the goods? It would certainly tie in with the weather lore regarding Britain possibly/usually receiving a watered down version 2/3 weeks later.

I'm not sure about the whole US cold then UK cold thing, but I would guess that if we have a situation like now with the jet so far south then it is likely that both the US and the UK will experience cold weather as a result. I also seem to remember that there are times that the jet can be on a bit of a buckled rollercoaster (amplified?) so that it is to the south over the US and then moves NE off the eastern seaboard of the US to bring us mild SW winds up over an Azores or Euro/Bartlett high pressure.

I'm sure someone on NW could come up with some stats! I'm also sure someone could come up with a better explanation about the jet

[blitzen]

Model thread update for 10:58 on 14-02-10.

Status:

Agreed! I bailed out a wee while ago. I could understand if synoptically things had gone AWOL but they haven't. Indeed things look quite promising for a really bitterly cold spell materialising. I see Tamara is still sticking to her guns this morning on the models starting to pick up on this during the week. All in all very promising. I await a sensible update from LSS!

[Guest]

and the metoffice just just takeing the Advisory off for all of Scotland it time for me to have a good old

That's what I was worried about yesterday :lol:

There's still time and I think this just reflects the changing situation. It can and will change back the way too. Also, remember that no warning doesn't equal no snow. It just equals not as much snow as merits as a warning. Anywhere could still see snow.

So:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

and the metoffice just just takeing the Advisory off for part of Scotland it time for me to have a good old

It'll be back and as orange 10 mins before you get six inches.

This is what happened to me on the 23 Dec last year. Warning only appeared at lunch time and by the early evening we were buried.

The fact that the advisory has changed massively every day since it first appeared suggests there is little confidence in where and when snow will fall.

I reckon the meto has done this just to stir up the model thread