Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[sconetone]

Haha some right spats over there isn't there.

Well I'm supposed to be in Inverness visiting the relatives for a few days, but was advised to postpone it for a while due to the upcoming *cough* 'event'

This thread here is the best one around right now (however edged out on toy throwing by the model thread) - hope you don't mind me hanging around here, the good old Northwest one is very quiet at the moment!

[blitzen]

Haha some right spats over there isn't there.

Well I'm supposed to be in Inverness visiting the relatives for a few days, but was advised to postpone it for a while due to the upcoming *cough* 'event'

This thread here is the best one around right now (however edged out on toy throwing by the model thread) - hope you don't mind me hanging around here, the good old Northwest one is very quiet at the moment!

Nice to have your company! Glad to hear you enjoy it as much as we do.

[lorenzo]

Ha Ha there is some banter on there today, thought I a would chip in with a model related post.

Looking interesting for Monday afternoon now, think there may be a few surprises in store.

NAE shows the Dam line in a favourable position providing decent upper level temps in place.

PPN from the outer edge of that ever present low flirting with the east coast.

Could be some decent blizzards here and there.

Saying that GFS will probably update later today and have us swamped by mild atlantic air - it likes to do this, whilst projecting an Ice Age for 7 days time.

Will This Be Snow?

It's a Dam Close Call

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Haha some right spats over there isn't there.

Well I'm supposed to be in Inverness visiting the relatives for a few days, but was advised to postpone it for a while due to the upcoming *cough* 'event'

This thread here is the best one around right now (however edged out on toy throwing by the model thread) - hope you don't mind me hanging around here, the good old Northwest one is very quiet at the moment!

Welcome to the kilted thread.

We are happy to have Honorary Scots on board as long as they adopt the Calvanist attitude which thankfully prevails here

All toys kept neat and tidy in the pram here.

[Gilly]

Haha some right spats over there isn't there.

Well I'm supposed to be in Inverness visiting the relatives for a few days, but was advised to postpone it for a while due to the upcoming *cough* 'event'

This thread here is the best one around right now (however edged out on toy throwing by the model thread) - hope you don't mind me hanging around here, the good old Northwest one is very quiet at the moment!

You are very welcome on this thread. Inverness "city" is on sea level and snow normally melts fairly quickly. The surrounding areas on the higher ground find the snow lying a lot longer with more of it. If this coming spell is an exception then i would continue with your visit and enjoy!!

[Stuart]

some new Advisory for scotland but not for my area

[Gilly]

Welcome to the kilted thread.

We are happy to have Honorary Scots on board as long as they adopt the Calvanist attitude which thankfully prevails here

All toys kept neat and tidy in the pram here.

love the summary SS........certainly we are more pragmatic........ most of the time.........

[sconetone]

You are very welcome on this thread. Inverness "city" is on sea level and snow normally melts fairly quickly. The surrounding areas on the higher ground find the snow lying a lot longer with more of it. If this coming spell is an exception then i would continue with your visit and enjoy!!

Well the visit has been rescheduled till 1st week June (kids school holiday and all that)

Got a few days off still so may visit Little-Fluffybottom-upon-Thames

Oh, and thanks for the usual warm Scots welcome

Edited February 14, 2010 by sconetone

[Guest]

Here goes for an amateur summary, c'mon LSS, get up out of bed big man!!

Starting tomorrow there is a risk of snow showers, at higher levels in the north and west of Scotland after the front moves through. The first chart is from the 06z GFS today and shows the precip and 850 temps for tomorrow at 6pm and the second chart is the 06z NMM today and shows snow risk for tomorrow at 3pm:

The next two charts are the FAX charts for the 16th Feb 12z and 17th Feb 00z and quite clearly show why the Met-O have amended the weather warnings for northern Scotland and the SE of England. If you see the BBC forecast today they have the front quite clearly shown curled up round the UK. The front has stalled and should give a good drop of snow to the areas highlighted by the weather advisory:

Later in the week the GFS throws up some precip across Scotland although nothing is certain as far out as this, these charts just illustrate what might happen with low pressure and cool air dominating, ECM also goes for cold air but no precip charts

Precip, low 850 temps and hey presto, snow risk!!

Looking further ahead the GFS ensembles keep the trend of cooler 850 temps, here is the Stirlingshire time series:

Looking further ahead the 00z ECM has some eye catching charts later on in the run:

In summary:

Cold, cool, snow, wet snow, liquid snow, frost, chilly but not a mild mushette in sight.

(if anyone can add to this or point out mistakes, please do!!!!)

Edited February 14, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Gilly]

Here goes for an amateur summary, c'mon LSS, get up out of bed big man!!

Starting tomorrow there is a risk of snow showers, at higher levels in the north and west of Scotland after the front moves through. The first chart is from the 06z GFS today and shows the precip and 850 temps for tomorrow at 6pm and the second chart is the 06z NMM today and shows snow risk for tomorrow at 3pm:

The next two charts are the FAX charts for the 16th Feb 12z and 17th Feb 00z and quite clearly show why the Met-O have amended the weather warnings for northern Scotland and the SE of England. If you see the BBC forecast today they have the front quite clearly shown curled up round the UK. The front has stalled and should give a good drop of snow to the areas highlighted by the weather advisory:

Later in the week the GFS throws up some precip across Scotland although nothing is certain as far out as this, these charts just illustrate what might happen with low pressure and cool air dominating, ECM also goes for cold air but no precip charts

Precip, low 850 temps and hey presto, snow risk!!

Looking further ahead the GFS ensembles keep the trend of cooler 850 temps, here is the Stirlingshire time series:

Looking further ahead the 00z ECM has some eye catching charts later on in the run:

In summary:

Cold, cool, snow, wet snow, liquid snow, frost, chilly but not a mild mushette in sight.

(if anyone can add to this or point out mistakes, please do!!!!)

Dont think i would argue with that summary Catch. The 850 looks even colder up here.....

Edited February 14, 2010 by Gilly

[sconetone]

Agreed, good summary there CMD

I see the South/North spat has overspilled into the London & SE regional thread now - jeepers

[Guest]

Dont think i would argue with that summary Catch. The 850 looks even colder up here.....

Let's hope the trend is for even colder up with you, since the colder you get, the colder we get down here

There does seem to be some scope for a fairly severe cold spell in the next two or three weeks. This type of weather pattern is unusual to say the least

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

The next two charts are the FAX charts for the 16th Feb 12z and 17th Feb 00z and quite clearly show why the Met-O have amended the weather warnings for northern Scotland and the SE of England. If you see the BBC forecast today they have the front quite clearly shown curled up round the UK. The front has stalled and should give a good drop of snow to the areas highlighted by the weather advisory:

No too bad CMD. LSS has some competition

The warnings will likely chop and change right up to the last minute as it only takes a shift of a hundred miles or so - nothing in weather terms - to move risks around. I'd say don't panic all if you're back to green as you could find youself orange come the time.

Edited February 14, 2010 by scottish skier

[Gilly]

Just watched the forecast for the week on BBC........looks like it will be a snowy week up north!

[Guest]

No too bad CMD. LSS has some competition

:lol: I'm sure LSS will be unchallenged for a long while to come.

I used to take the whole thing a lot more seriously then I stopped for a bit and have only really come back to it properly in the last few months. I forgot how much I enjoyed the whole chart watching thing, it has taken time to get back into it and refresh my memory a bit. I still know nothing though, except how to save and then post lots of charts :blush:

Set-ups like the coming week are really fascinating because of the huge number of variables at play. I also suspect that we are all in for surprises and disappointments when the real weather does something different to the electronic weather. How many times has everything electronic pointed to snow (or no snow) and then nothing has happened (6 inches have fallen)?? The whole of the week has uncertainty stamped on it in huge lettering

[kold weather]

Yep uncertain is certainly the word to use with this one thats for sure, the morning models have somewhat shifted the LP southwards which does reduce the frontal threat a touch but you guys are still in the cold air and I suspect with the wrap round will come into at least NE Scotland and also probsbly any other disturbances that might swing up as the LP starts to edge eastwards.

Still this will be a most interesting week, just about anything could happen, at last a very active weather week!

[Blizzardo]

Just watched the forecast for the week on BBC........looks like it will be a snowy week up north!

Didnt catch it but it looks like the next couple of weeks could provide some heavy snowfall. Everything is now falling into place at the right time with low pressure systems wrapped in cold air during the next week and Scotland looks to be in the best position even looking deep into FI.

Beyond a week I'd say a North Easterly influence looks possible with the warming over the pole forcing some very cold air down across Scandinavia. With the jet away to the south theres a decent chance that we could start to tap into to this.

Very interesting period of weather coming up!

Edited February 14, 2010 by Blizzardo

[blitzen]

Hey Catch, well done! I'm impressed. It certainly does look like an interesting week coming up. Probably means that I will be spending every available minute on here with nothing getting done. Oh well, sod it! Some things are more important! :blush:

[Guest]

Beyond a week I'd say a North Easterly influence looks possible with the warming over the pole forcing some very cold air down across Scandinavia. With the jet away to the south theres a decent chance that we could start to tap into to this.

Very interesting period of weather coming up!

That northern hemisphere chart is a good one to show what is going on. The purple colours which indicate the very cold air over Scandinavia are echoed by the ECM +240hrs chart I posted earlier.

All the ingredients are in the kitchen cupboard but can we bake the cake??

(sorry for the bizarre chat, but I have bronchitis :blush: That's my excuse this week, next week I will need something else to blame :lol:)

Hey Catch, well done! I'm impressed. It certainly does look like an interesting week coming up. Probably means that I will be spending every available minute on here with nothing getting done. Oh well, sod it! Some things are more important!

It's your birthday tomorrow, you're allowed to watch the weather for a week!! :)

[kold weather]

06z NAE backs up the idea of possibly 5-10cms for E scotland as the front wraps around, locally could see more though the bullseye of any real decent amounts likely to be quite small, and also very hard to forecast and thus this will be very much a case of watching the radar!

[Northernlights]

Curently fairly mild here at 6c no wind and some light rain showers so I thought i would do a bit of reminiscing and went down to the wood this morning to see if the area that held late snow into March when I was a child in the sixties was still there. If we ever wanted a snowball fight in March this is where we went and true to form it is still snowy as can be seen in the photos . It must be a true micro climate as all the snow has gone from the edge of the woods and open fields but here some of it is still 6" deep and all at 100m asl. Still think it is waiting for more, maybe this week and it will surely settle in the wood. Please note silver birch tree snapped in half by heavy snowfall.

Nice benign weather for fostering calves in the cattle race outside and have got the two of them them to the stage where when you put the cow in the race the calves follow you out of the fold to get a drink.

[Guest]

Curently fairly mild here at 6c no wind and some light rain showers so I thought i would do a bit of reminiscing and went down to the wood this morning to see if the area that held late snow into March when I was a child in the sixties was still there. If we ever wanted a snowball fight in March this is where we went and true to form it is still snowy as can be seen in the photos . It must be a true micro climate as all the snow has gone from the edge of the woods and open fields but here some of it is still 6" deep and all at 100m asl.

Nice pics of the snow in the woods. It will simply stay there because it is so sheltered from the sun, wind and rain. My parents' huge pond in their garden is still frozen solid and has been since mid-December, it similarly lies in the middle of a wood at only about 100-150m.

Glad to hear you're getting some better weather for the coos!! :o

[blitzen]

Off topic here. I opened a new topic in the Lounge Thread and if you get the chance, have a look. It's amazing.

Bit dreich and drizzly here today with temps sitting at 6.3c. Hopefully we are in for something much more interesting next week!

Edited February 14, 2010 by Blitzen

[kold weather]

Yep there was something similar in the woods down in Surrey after the big snow event of early Jan, despite nearly 2 weeks of milder conditions it still was surprisingly thick in the woods.

Anyway I wouldn't like to call this week, other to say whoever ends up near the boundary between the LPs coming up and the cold air is likely going to do very well indeed, however obviously in this set-up it will shift about somewhat and there is a possiblity it will shift well south by the weekend again but we shall see.

Tuesday-Friday looks most interesting for both you guys and also N.England though I must admit, the only risk is after Tuesday the models may trend a little too far south so something to watch.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi all. I've returned from the pipe band in time for the 12Zs. I see the curse of the met warning has been lifted for most, perhaps they'll be right but it is still an evolving situation. As blizzardo already mentioned this http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/14/basis06/ukuk/prec/10021606_1406.gif could well end up as snow. How far southwest the precipitation gets on Tuesday evening will be interesting as this is bound to fall as snow for most http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ukmo/2010/02/14/basis00/ukuk/prec/10021700_1400.gif

And with low pressure sitting across the British Isles and cold uppers snow events are bound to crop up. This is completely different to the high we ended up under because there was no chance of major troughing or even much convective action.

The GFS for Tuesday night shows a band moving south but further west than the UKMO http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100214/06/63/ukprec.png

I would expect in that instance the band would lose a lot of strength over the highlands. For me Wednesday night poses another major threat as a trough moves across the Irish Sea towards central Scotland http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100214/06/87/ukprec.png

Snow? http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100214/06/87/ukpaneltemp.png

The NMM will be more useful in these instances as the setup has similarities to December 18th onwards with precipitation coming mainly in troughs and fronts e.g. http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVJ89.png

That front only needs to shift about 30 miles for some major snowfall across Edinburgh and the Lothians and is fairly close to giving Dundee a big snow event.

Here's Wednesday's trough http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVL89.png

More serious snowfall (and I mean serious) possible by Friday as the low tracks a bit further northeast http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?14-06

ECM slightly different http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?14-12

This brings the real cold in from Scandinavia http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-168.GIF?14-12

GFS shows the risk http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100214/06/150/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100214/06/174/ukprec.png

Ironically the low needs to be a bit further north for the major precipitation in northern England http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100214/06/174/h500slp.png

So we await the 12Zs with interest.

LS