Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[A.J]

Well, it was said all along that patience was the key today regarding snowfall, the forecasters were bang on, the weather warnings were pretty accurate, maybe certain posters will learn from this and not clutter up this thread from the sort of inane posting that was going on in this thread earlier this afternoon!

[stewfox]

Think he's a bit jealous?

Midlands got snow, South East go nooooooo!!

Phil.

Funny I'm part of the 'South East' but think I have more in common with Brimingham then Kent

Anyway moderate snow here for last 100 mins

well predicted by the met in their long range forcast at 6pm tonight

[snowmadchrisuk]

Still coming down fairly heavily here, although small flakes. Looks very picturesque outside, the kind of snow which just sticks to everything. Will go out on my bike in the morning up the road where it's 800ft up, should have started to settle earlier there I would have thought.

In which case that's an upgrade!

No chance of Snow for the midlands Sat night / Sunday if 18z is correct way to much of a warm sector covering the whole midlands . Check the 850's

[Bottesford]

Not much happening here - still just wet ground with nothing much falling. Business as usual!

[NorthantsSnow]

Accumulations as of 2200hrs - 4cm.

And the snow continues to fall at moderate intensity.

Not going to be a classic, but considering the marginality of it, it's been a bloody brilliant day and a great snow event! Thank you weather gods.

[jukebox]

Well, it was said all along that patience was the key today regarding snowfall, the forecasters were bang on, the weather warnings were pretty accurate, maybe certain posters will learn from this and not clutter up this thread from the sort of inane posting that was going on in this thread earlier this afternoon!

I'll drink to that sir.

GFS precip charts are having none of it for Saturday and rain looks more likely for Sunday. See what the NAE brings????????????

[Nick L]

Well, it was said all along that patience was the key today regarding snowfall, the forecasters were bang on, the weather warnings were pretty accurate, maybe certain posters will learn from this and not clutter up this thread from the sort of inane posting that was going on in this thread earlier this afternoon!

Optimism breeds disappointment

A more intense area of snow has developed right over me out of nothing, and due to the fact it isn't moving anywhere means it could be here for a while!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

No chance of Snow for the midlands Sat night / Sunday if 18z is correct way to much of a warm sector covering the whole midlands . Check the 850's

CORRECT

Although i dont think things will be that far north come the time it is worrying as its the second run on the trot its shown this .

Optimism breeds disappointment

A more intense area of snow has developed right over me out of nothing, and due to the fact it isn't moving anywhere means it could be here for a while!

Really ? Is it heavy sir?!!

[Nick L]

RAMP ALERT

[I remember Atlantic 252]

RAMP ALERT

20 cms of snow! unreal, charts just dont support it, hope 18Z has these lows too far north

[A.J]

Optimism breeds disappointment :lol:

A more intense area of snow has developed right over me out of nothing, and due to the fact it isn't moving anywhere means it could be here for a while!

Yes, judging by my calculations, using complex algorithms and formulae, I can calculate that this area is indeed the other side of my back fence and whilst I have a flurry, the neighbours have a blizzard.... :lol: (actually its about 2-5 miles away to the east)

[NorthantsSnow]

No chance of Snow for the midlands Sat night / Sunday if 18z is correct way to much of a warm sector covering the whole midlands . Check the 850's

According to the GFS I had a 0% chance of snow up to 2100 and guess what? It snowed pretty much all day except right at the start when it was a bit sleety at around 11am.

Today's event has destroyed the GFS' credibility when it comes to snow risk forecasting.

However, that's not to say I think Saturday's potential event will be as good as today's. I don't think it will. Indeed, the MetO haven't even issued any advisories which suggests they perceive the threat to be low.

The theme of the model outputs though is interesting. This pattern of LPs coming up from the south-west and interacting with colder air from the Midlands northwards looks one that is likely to re-occur, so that perhaps some lucky areas may see a string of snow events over the next week or so. Especially over higher ground.

[jukebox]

NAE looks like it could bring a period of snow on Saturday though as it has stepped into line with the GFS recently I know where my money is

According to the GFS I had a 0% chance of snow up to 2100 and guess what? It snowed pretty much all day except right at the start when it was a bit sleety at around 11am.

Today's event has destroyed the GFS' credibility when it comes to snow risk forecasting.

However, that's not to say I think Saturday's potential event will be as good as today's. I don't think it will. Indeed, the MetO haven't even issued any advisories which suggests they perceive the threat to be low.

The theme of the model outputs though is interesting. This pattern of LPs coming up from the south-west and interacting with colder air from the Midlands northwards looks one that is likely to re-occur, so that perhaps some lucky areas may see a string of snow events over the next week or so. Especially over higher ground.

To be fair to the GFS it has been one of those difficult to call days though and if you check out yesterdays snow accumulation charts I think you'll find its been pretty much bang on the money today

[Nick L]

I think I am going mad. Why? Well...haha...you will like this...what I am seeing on this chart is 35cm of snow...I think I need new glasses?

[NorthantsSnow]

NAE looks like it could bring a period of snow on Saturday though as it has stepped into line with the GFS recently I know where my money is

Good shout. Expect the BBC forecasts to upgrade for Saturday then. They've been pretty cagey in the detail anyway, bar poor old Jim Bacon on Look East who has been promising viewers that Saturday will be the best day of the week all week!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The bottom line is the next 5 days are full of POTENTIAL but i have to admit . . . .

Im slightly confused to why the snow outside my window seems to be slowly getting heavier again , just as one from stafford is reporting a ppn intensity occuring also . .

MAYBE ITS ANOTHER SMALL FEATURE DEVLOPING OFF THE MAIN ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!

RRRRRRRRAAAAAAAMMMMMMMPPPPPPP IT UP PPS!!!!!!!!!!

[Bristawl Si]

I think I am going mad. Why? Well...haha...you will like this...what I am seeing on this chart is 35cm of snow...I think I need new glasses?

Forgive me for butting into the Midalnds thread, but this is a typical chart for mid-70s. In BTL and south west a large number of winters were mild and wet, but the Midlands and north were getting plastered with snow.

[windysnow555]

hi all had 2 inches here in nw leics/south derbys...............was not expecting this much, however just been a walk and it is melting already!!! Roads are covered but cars cutting thru the snow straight onto tarmac. need it to freeze

[The Wolf]

I'd be amazed if we got that much snow Nick! If we do, though, the whole region will grind to a halt

[Nick L]

I'd be amazed if we got that much snow Nick! If we do, though, the whole region will grind to a halt

Nah we won't, we ain't no south-easterners, us Midlanders am 'ard :lol:

[NorthantsSnow]

I think I am going mad. Why? Well...haha...you will like this...what I am seeing on this chart is 35cm of snow...I think I need new glasses?

How do you do it Nick? You were apparently disappointed with how much accumulated today relative to some model predictions 24 hrs ago...and now you're busy plucking snow depth charts out from 6 days out!

The overall pattern is a good one though with a setup similar today likely to reoccur, perhaps multiple times.

Edited February 18, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[TonyH]

Hi Nick,Hope Youre Well! A very good covering here in Evesham and snowing well now and a few more good hours of snow to come judging by the radar! Yep I do remember the [blizzard] of Decemeber 12th 1990. We had two days of no power some in the area a week or more. Probably the deepest snow here since 1982 ,although it soon disappeared!.Regards Ian.

That was the most snow I have seen in the UK, 31cm in Coventry and even more in Kenilworth,

[Nick L]

How do you do it Nick? You were apparently disappointed with how much accumulated today relative to some model predictions 24 hrs ago...and now you're busy plucking snow depth charts out from 6 days out! :unsure:

The overall pattern is a good one though with this sort of setup highly likely to reoccur.

It's called sitting at a computer for far too long, messes with your mind!

I know the chances of that chart occurring are <20%, but it is still nice eye candy! Will be nice to have snow around on my birthday next Friday as well.

[jukebox]

I wouldn't take much notice of the GFS when it comes to these marginal set-ups. The NAE and NMM will tell you all you need to know, as well as on the Met Office site as they have far more information at hand than we do, so if they're issuing warnings of heavy snowfall when the GFS shows otherwise, I'd stick with the Met Office and the Hi-res models.

35cm snow depths? I'll take that thankyou very much!

NAE and NMM models are good within the 24 hour range but recently when its been further out than this GFS has performed better imo. Remember when we were all expecting the snow to be further to the east and then last night the NAE completely shifted the area and put us in the firing line? GFS had that area nailed and then the others fell in line.

[stevomatt]

how long do u think it will continue to snow over our area? any more depth or is this it for tonight (looks to be weakening)