Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Harsh Climate]

See the thing is aswell..

The gfs 06Z is a downgrade for Wednesday/Thursday, but medium to long term a lovely upgrade. We are no nearer/closer as to knowing whats going to happen. But it shows when 1 thing goes against, good things usually happen.

Ill call it glass half empty, i'm going to wait until tomorrows 18z before I make a full on conclusion although me thinks i'll be right haha.

hehe Im going for glass half full.

If I was forced into making a forecast Id honestly go somewhere inbetween what youve said (the low going too far north) and what Ive said (it probably wont go that far north as they tend to get shunted further south near the event.) Meaning the region will see snow wed-fri with some moderate falls, but snow turning sleety thursday before turning more to snow again on friday.. as NW or NE winds tuck in behind the low..

This isnt the major dumping that ive highlighted the POSSIBILITY of, nor the no snow and milder temps that your predicting...

I just feel that if we get a bit of luck the potential is there for a major dumping of snow in what is/cud be a classic set-up. If i was a betting man id say that the borders of scotland/northernmost parts of england are at highest risk but all it would take is a 50-100 mile shift further south and were laughing.

[Imp81]

A grey and cold day here with still 2cm of snow lying about after a moderate frost and a slow thaw in comparison to yesterday and some treacherous pavements as i've already learnt to my cost today

[sunny scunny]

There's still some patches of snow around here, and despite the temp being around 3c,it actually feels quite mild

[Craigers]

alot of snow still around!!!! and the snow monster is still hasnt been touched! only has been if kids have been trying to climb it!

[The PIT]

Still 100% cover here but should be gone by the time the next top up comes.

All eyes will be on how far the low pushes the front. Going to be interesting watching the next few days.

[Cheese Rice]

Did do a forecast but when I attached a image all the text disappeared and I couldn't get it back up anyway the idea for Wednesday morning is-

South/West/North West Yorkshire- Moderate snow, light at times, some heavy bursts 5-8cm

Lincolnshire- 1-2cm of light snow, turns to light rain, coast mostly rain

East Yorkshire/North East Yorkshire- Light snow with odd moderate burst 1-3cm, coastal regions 0.5-1.5cm of snow turning to rain or sleet.

[disco-barry]

hahaha well done i've just seen your snowman on look north! Well done lad!

[grab my graupel]

Craig, I've just seen your snow monster on Look North - nice one mate

[Craigers]

hahaha well done i've just seen your snowman on look north! Well done lad!

Craig, I've just seen your snow monster on Look North - nice one mate

hehe thanks! good photo of cusworth aswell as that place can be seen from my house glad you both liked it haha and they spelt my name wrong as its hirst and also said biggest snowman when i said it was 10ft tall! what is he like! haha

[clee_snow]

6hours work on a massive 10ft snow monster

so tired! me and my mate did all this! hope you all like

one of the best snowmen i have seen good job Craigers

[NCC1701]

one of the best snowmen i have seen good job Craigers

well done lads ou have even managed to get a tree growing out of its head too nice work

well done lads ou have even managed to get a tree growing out of its head too nice work

didnt realise it was localy famous too. How the hell did you pull that one off! that face is great reminds me of a creature out of trap door!

Edited February 22, 2010 by NCC1701

[Harsh Climate]

hehe thanks! good photo of cusworth aswell as that place can be seen from my house glad you both liked it haha and they spelt my name wrong as its hirst and also said biggest snowman when i said it was 10ft tall! what is he like! haha

Haha saw your snowman on look north! well done craig, that is the best snowman ever!... Looks a bit like jaba hut

[Craigers]

awwwwwwwww thanks for all the comments haha! loved the jabba the hut one LOOOOL, glad you all liked it! still achy from yesturday haha!

[Lewis]

Did do a forecast but when I attached a image all the text disappeared and I couldn't get it back up anyway the idea for Wednesday morning is-

South/West/North West Yorkshire- Moderate snow, light at times, some heavy bursts 5-8cm

Lincolnshire- 1-2cm of light snow, turns to light rain, coast mostly rain

East Yorkshire/North East Yorkshire- Light snow with odd moderate burst 1-3cm, coastal regions 0.5-1.5cm of snow turning to rain or sleet.

Hi 10123 may i ask what your forecast is based on?

Also tomorrow is more of an event then wednesday

[galba]

Very quiet on here tonight....suppose everyone is chewing the charts in anticipation of tomorrow evening ?

We're supposed to be visiting friends in Bamford tomorrow evening but after seeing the forecast by Rob Mcelwee I doubt we'll go; don't fancy coming home across Strines Moor in driving snow.

[Lewis]

Very quiet on here tonight....suppose everyone is chewing the charts in anticipation of tomorrow evening ?

We're supposed to be visiting friends in Bamford tomorrow evening but after seeing the forecast by Rob Mcelwee I doubt we'll go; don't fancy coming home across Strines Moor in driving snow.

Just seen the forecast, he said he very much doubts the snow will stick across the midlands and yorkshire, with central parts of N england/Scotland where it's expected to stick with colder temps, i think the BBC have it spot on. Any accumulations if any will be tempory, with much milder air with a stiff breeze following closely behind.

I think it will be a non event for most if all parts of yorkshire maybe accept N Yorkshire.

Good Night

Edited February 22, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Craigers]

i have got something that is amazing to watch dedicated to snow

enjoy

[sunny scunny]

i have got something that is amazing to watch dedicated to snow

enjoy

Cool clip mate

[Craigers]

Cool clip mate

loads of drum and bass thats made for winter and snow! love it

[NCC1701]

Just seen the forecast, he said he very much doubts the snow will stick across the midlands and yorkshire, with central parts of N england/Scotland where it's expected to stick with colder temps, i think the BBC have it spot on. Any accumulations if any will be tempory, with much milder air with a stiff breeze following closely behind.

I think it will be a non event for most if all parts of yorkshire maybe accept N Yorkshire.

Good Night

so two people watced the same forecast and have differing conclusions dont know what to think gfs seems over progressive and pushes quite mild air in, im not convinced i think it will snow poss trn back to sleet or rain then back to sleet and snow fri / sat its all very messy complex and certainly down 2 nowcasting

Very quiet on here tonight....suppose everyone is chewing the charts in anticipation of tomorrow evening ?

We're supposed to be visiting friends in Bamford tomorrow evening but after seeing the forecast by Rob Mcelwee I doubt we'll go; don't fancy coming home across Strines Moor in driving snow.

What did you see that Storm Force isnt ???? im confused again

[NCC1701]

Very quiet on here tonight....suppose everyone is chewing the charts in anticipation of tomorrow evening ?

We're supposed to be visiting friends in Bamford tomorrow evening but after seeing the forecast by Rob Mcelwee I doubt we'll go; don't fancy coming home across Strines Moor in driving snow.

Dont blame you it will be very difficult over 300mtrs amsl very rural and the roads will not have been grtitted. If you lost control up there it would be grim! Either leave early or plan to have a lst pint at the strines and get stcuck there and have a lock in ha ha woud be cool! just make sure the chef gets stuck their too!

[Lewis]

Looking at the 00z and it's an absolute stonker!!

Shortwave crazy.

Although as i concluded the other day the LP is much further North with milder conditions rapidly moving Northwards, with Extreme N England and Scotland keeping onto the colder air with snow.

Looking ahead i think the pattern will change, between the 28th Feb onwards we will start to see an Atlantic influence on our weather, some fairly deep low pressures pushing in from the SW bringing above average temps and gale force winds to Western and SWestern areas, with some pretty heavy rain. Once again the far North of Scotland holding onto the coldest air before this gets shunted away.

My confidence of the above is 75% allthough we need to keep an eye on how a LP tracks on Thursday/Friday, our cold Feb hangs by this.

[galba]

What did you see that Storm Force isnt ???? im confused again

A deep band of snow arriving S Yorks around 2100 tonight. Carol K was offering the same this morning but suggesting it would turn to rain on the back edge. Not conditions I would like to be caught in on the Mortimer road...although we use the Sugworth road to Bamford - it's less of a switch-back around Agden and is used as a shortcut to the A57 by the Sheffield based gritters so is often cleared when other minor roads are ignored.

I'll be surprised if it does turn to rain here given the elevation and time of day.

[Lewis]

A deep band of snow arriving S Yorks around 2100 tonight. Carol K was offering the same this morning but suggesting it would turn to rain on the back edge. Not conditions I would like to be caught in on the Mortimer road...although we use the Sugworth road to Bamford - it's less of a switch-back around Agden and is used as a shortcut to the A57 by the Sheffield based gritters so is often cleared when other minor roads are ignored.

I'll be surprised if it does turn to rain here given the elevation and time of day.

300m+ should be fine, but it all depends on the timing.

If you look at the cloudcover;

Temps will gradually rise throughout the day and won't really drop that quickly so it will be +1-2c for many areas as the precipitation gets closer, thickness rises to around 531-532. Dew points become marginal for some places, and the 0c isotherm is around 200metres, which is fine, but given the precipitation will be rather light and sparodic i would not expect any accumulations to lower areas unless the precipitation is much heavier.

Accumulative precipitation.

When the heaviest of the precipitation hit's here is the 0c isotherm;

Other than 300-400 metres+ i cannot really see much accumulations, it depends on temps of course (if it sticks) and how heavy the precipitation is, of course if your temps are well below 0c and they don't rise with the approaching front, you may stand a chance.

Lewis

[galba]

Other than 300-400 metres+ i cannot really see much accumulations, it depends on temps of course (if it sticks) and how heavy the precipitation is, of course if your temps are well below 0c and they don't rise with the approaching front, you may stand a chance.

Lewis

Appreciate what you're saying but I tend to focus on very local conditions. We have still a good covering of lying snow which I expect will not melt very much today - a fresh easterly that will keep temps down, it only briefly hit 2°C yesterday.

With weather arriving from the S or SW I tend to use the weather station at Buxton as an indicator of our situation - it's at the same height as we are and without any urban influence.

http://www.buxtonweather.co.uk/

My only accessible ppn forecast is the NW free GFS chart which has this for 0300 tomorrrow but I know that's not a promise

Edited February 23, 2010 by galba