Sunday's Low

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

A wet morning as expected and the rain looks on the point of turning to sleet in the heavier bursts. Looking from my bedroom window the clouds are moving north to south, so without checking anything on screen yet I guess the low centre is right where it was suggested to be. Edit looking at this it looks to me as if the low centre is if anything just very slightly further south than suggested?

Edited February 28, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[John London]

A bit like a wet weekend in Lowestoft. In fact that's exactly what it is. Stay calm. No need for the SOS signal here. Just a bit of rain.

[Buckster]

interesting - Chelmsford has no flood warnings at all in effect ?

nothing special yet IMO not sure what the fuss is about

its just an Autumn storm right ? (for us anyway)

[Coast]

From ESTOFEX:

Storm Forecast Valid: Sun 28 Feb 2010 06:00 to Mon 01 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 28 Feb 2010 06:01

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

Please note that severe non-convective wind gusts such as expected for large portions of Germany during Sunday do not match our level critieria!

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Extra-tropical cyclone "Xynthia", initially located over the NE British Channel, is moving to the northeast while occluding. During the afternoon and evening hours, its centre will cross NW Germany and will move into the S Baltic Sea. The transition of this surface low will be accompanied by widespread severe nonconvective gusts, locally up to 35 m/s.

Another low pressure system is located near the Azores with its axis about 1000 km west of Portugal on Sunday 06 UTC. The associated upper trough will move across W Iberia where thunderstorms are forecast in a maritime polar airmass. Deep layer shear in order of 15 - 20 m/s is forecast with slightly enhanced SRH3 near the coastlines of W Iberia and strong LL shear. Recently, some convective cells are embedded in a large stratiform precipitation area that reaches SW Iberia during the morning hours. Most convection is found in the trough region where both shear and SRH are much weaker. However, an isolated tornado with one of the most intense storms is not ruled out.

Some isolated thunder over the Norwegian Sea in an environment with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and very cold upper air is not ruled out but confidence is too low for a medium probability thunderstorm area.

[The PIT]

interesting - Chelmsford has no flood warnings at all in effect ?

nothing special yet IMO not sure what the fuss is about

its just an Autumn storm right ? (for us anyway)

Yes a lot of panic yesterday and messages that it isn't going to be Armageddon didn't go down very well. I wasn't surprised too see the SE still attached to the UK this morning. LOL.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes a lot of panic yesterday and messages that it isn't going to be Armageddon didn't go down very well. I wasn't surprised too see the SE still attached to the UK this morning. LOL.

The worry I think was the amount of attention that this low has been getting in terms of its 'potential' to produce dangerous weather and the fact that its track needed to be watched in this respect (shades of repeating a 1987 type thing). In thats sense I certainly have been concerned.

In terms of what the models suggested though (and they have handled this very well indeed I think)then no, as far as the south of the UK is concerned then it is not any armeggedon event. I don't think the posts with lots of 'SOS' smilies etc are very helpful from some in that regard!!

However, those on the other side of the channel might not be feeling the same way as this.

Edited February 28, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Coast]

Current windspeed from the Greenwich Lightship:

[John London]

On Friday we had wind gusts here on the cliffs exceeding 50mph. So far today our strongest gust has been 29mph.

[nick sussex]

The worry I think was the amount of attention that this low has been getting in terms of its 'potential' to produce dangerous weather and the fact that its track needed to be watched in this respect (shades of repeating a 1987 type thing). In thats sense I certainly have been concerned.

In terms of what the models suggested though (and they have handled this very well indeed I think)then no, as far as the south of the UK is concerned then it is not any armeggedon event. I don't think the posts with lots of 'SOS' smilies etc are very helpful from some in that regard!!

However, those on the other side of the channel might not be feeling the same way as this.

Hi Tamara

Yes unfortunately 5 people have been killed in France and a million homes without power, including myself! so thankfully after last winters storm I brought a generator. Unbelievable I've lived over here for 2 and a half years and i've managed to suffer two of the worst storms to ever hit this region!

[The PIT]

Hi Tamara

Yes unfortunately 5 people have been killed in France and a million homes without power, including myself! so thankfully after last winters storm I brought a generator. Unbelievable I've lived over here for 2 and a half years and i've managed to suffer two of the worst storms to ever hit this region!

Nice to hear that you're okay. The locals will be thinking that your bad luck or something. Strange lack of coverage over the storm in France.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi Tamara

Yes unfortunately 5 people have been killed in France and a million homes without power, including myself! so thankfully after last winters storm I brought a generator. Unbelievable I've lived over here for 2 and a half years and i've managed to suffer two of the worst storms to ever hit this region!

Morning Nick, and sympathies - It is very disappointing to hear that.

Was the storm actually as bad as the last one?

[Wilxy]

Iv escaped the storm very well barley a breath of wind and not alot of rain

[nick sussex]

Nice to hear that you're okay. The locals will be thinking that your bad luck or something. Strange lack of coverage over the storm in France.

Hi Pit thanks for that. I see its on the bbc site now but of course with events in Chile its understandable why its not a big news item. I really had hoped to miss the worst of it but unfortunately the winds piled through the mountains and funnelled into the valley here, it was very bizarre though it went completely calm around 8pm last night but before this I could see a marked front over the Pyrenees heading north, i think this was the active cold front which brought gusts touching 147kmh in the Pyrenees, suddenly the most amazing warm winds picked up the temp shot to 24c and then severe wind gusts which knocked out the power.

I dread to think whats left of the Landes forest which was badly hit last year,to be honest I'm getting a bit fed up of these once a year storms! After 5 days without power last year I brought a generator which thankfully will save my sanity at least it means I can have a good moan on here!

[Lynxus]

Where is this storm currently?

Its just a grey day here with 0 wind and 0 rainfall.

[Buckster]

storm I think has gone past us (not that that means we haven't had strongest winds yet)

I think its in the channel towards the north sea ?

[nick sussex]

Morning Nick, and sympathies - It is very disappointing to hear that.

Was the storm actually as bad as the last one?

Hi Tamara well i don't think the general winds were as strong as last year but the gusts seemed similar unfortunately the wind direction was worse as it enhanced the strength through the valleys, I've never known however such a sudden temp change and from calm to ferocious winds in literally seconds. Thankfully no trees came down in the adjacent forest and it was lucky I suppose that these weren't in leaf, it was shorter in duration but the sum total was still no power!

Although to be honest it doesn't take very much to lose power in the country, unfortunately EDF now run many regions in the UK so bear that in mind and certainly a generator comes in handy!

[Polar Bear]

storm I think has gone past us (not that that means we haven't had strongest winds yet)

I think its in the channel towards the north sea ?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

I have just cut and paste this link then realised this may not answer your question, as I cant remember where you are without going back...(typing with one finger too as just sliced it on a kitchen knife.... .ouch...).

[yamkin]

Wind gusts have picked up here. Ian Fergusson warned us about the possibility of the 'Sting Jet'

[Polar Bear]

Current windspeed from the Greenwich Lightship:

http://www.chimet.co.uk/(S(vk4abm5512w1dhqxah4n4jzg))/wind.aspx

gusts droppin off a bit in the solent....

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi Tamara well i don't think the general winds were as strong as last year but the gusts seemed similar unfortunately the wind direction was worse as it enhanced the strength through the valleys, I've never known however such a sudden temp change and from calm to ferocious winds in literally seconds. Thankfully no trees came down in the adjacent forest and it was lucky I suppose that these weren't in leaf, it was shorter in duration but the sum total was still no power!

Although to be honest it doesn't take very much to lose power in the country, unfortunately EDF now run many regions in the UK so bear that in mind and certainly a generator comes in handy!

I think in terms of you suffering these two storms since your move, the answer lies in the fact that synoptics have coincidentally shifted over the last two/three years to a much more southerly depressed jet stream. Much as you know of course

Many of us are cold and snow enthusiasts but the flip side to getting the better synoptics to allow this means also that lows are tracking much further south and strom centres that so often move to the north of Scotland are appearing many hundreds of miles further south. In turning meaning enduring events like this one in places that so often in the northerly jet set-ups would never see systems like this at all for year after year. Very 'un modern' winter synoptics going by Ian B's definition.

Edited February 28, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Coast]

storm I think has gone past us (not that that means we haven't had strongest winds yet)

I think its in the channel towards the north sea ?

Not sure where you are, can you pop your location in your profile for us please?

Latest SatRep:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Wind gusts have picked up here. Ian Fergusson warned us about the possibility of the 'Sting Jet'

No Yamkin, he mentioned about this for Northern France and perhaps the possibility of it for the CI earlier this morning.

Edited February 28, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[nick sussex]

I think in terms of you suffering these two storms since your move, the answer lies in the fact that synoptics have coincidentally shifted over the last two/three years to a much more southerly depressed jet stream. Much as you know of course

Many of us are cold and snow enthusiasts but the flip side to getting the better synoptics to allow this means also that lows are tracking much further south and strom centres that so often move to the north of Scotland are appearing many hundreds of miles further south. In turning meaning enduring events like this one in places that so often in the northerly jet set-ups would never see systems like this at all for year after year. Very 'un modern' winter synoptics going by Ian B's definition.

Yes so unfortunately colder European winters means more chance of severe storms down here! you can't win can you! I love the snow but am now paying for it yet again! The power has just come back on which is quite a shock! At least now I can get back to looking at the colder synoptics possible for next week rather than obsessing over the exact track of the recent storm!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes so unfortunately colder European winters means more chance of severe storms down here! you can't win can you! I love the snow but am now paying for it yet again! The power has just come back on which is quite a shock! At least now I can get back to looking at the colder synoptics possible for next week rather than obsessing over the exact track of the recent storm!

Thats great news about the power being back on Hopefully this time it will stay on

Later next week does indeed have further snow possibilities - back to the 'will it, won't it' ritual dance of the model thread!

Back to the here and now in the SE - the radar shows the heaviest rain is now passing away to the east with light to moderate ppn remaining as the band slowly dries up from the west through the afternoon.

Edited February 28, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[yamkin]

Thats great news about the power being back on Hopefully this time it will stay on

Later next week does indeed have further snow possibilities - back to the 'will it, won't it' ritual dance of the model thread!

How's the wind gusts in your neck of the woods? Gusts have really picked up here