Sunday's Low

[galba]

Indeed. But hoping not to be a harbinger of doom, flooding could well become a very serious problem alongside the added complication, the high tides will undoubtably cause. I'm to believe it will be the extreme southeast where the layout of the land and sea could well cause a rising of the tides even further but then again I'm no expert so I'm guessing.

Here's hoping we have some action to savour, but with no loss of life.

STORMBOY

From my sailing days in the area I seem to recall the incoming tidal flow along the south coast is west to east and the wind on the north side of this low will be east to west so there ought to be a dampening effect on the tidal surge...but then I'm guessing too :lol:

[Bluebreezer54]

Good evening all. Im a relative newcomer to this site but have been a regular for some time on other weather related websites, and Ive been following the development of this storm ( named Xynthia by the way ) with interest since early last Tuesday.

Others have said it already here, and I tend to agree, the main problem I think we will face in the South East is from rainfall. Thats not to say it wont get a bit windy, especially on the coast, but I would think gusts are likely to be in the region of 40-50mph, less inland. Not pleasant, but not catastrophic either. The worst winds were always going to be on the south/south east flank of this storm, which puts them over Northern Spain and France.

Because the recent rainfall in the south has saturated the ground, tree roots may be weakened, and strong gusts may be enough to bring some trees down. The good side is that the trees are not yet in leaf, unlike in a late autumn storm, so far fewer trees are in danger.

Its the rain that is the problem more than the wind. Latest indications are Xynthia may track 40-50 miles further south than predicted, so the heaviest rainfall is likely to be in a line roughly south of East Anglia to the Dorset coast. Anything between 15-50mm seems to be being mentioned at the moment, with the highest totals occuring nearer the south coast. It could still change but I would be a lot more concerned if I was living in parts of France right now than I would be if I was living in say, Kent or Sussex.

Anyone living in an area prone to flooding can always check the regular updates on the Environmental Agency website. They are well aware of the situation and are constantly monitoring it.

Be safe all. BB

[guitarnutter]

Turned eerily quiet here but further south into the Pyrenees some very strong winds with apparently 147kmh an hour gust near the main link between France and Spain at the Col De Somport, temperature readings very bizarre, here 24c! 20km away 12c in Pau! Biarritz 22c, must be a very localized foehn effect. I think the Cold front is about to come through and I think some very strong winds imminent!

Wow 24C!

[winter watcher]

Ok all seems a bit dead in here just a open question to get a few typing - What are people expecting off this storm a devstating one or just a bit off rain and a few gusts off wind?

[The PIT]

Ok all seems a bit dead in here just a open question to get a few typing - What are people expecting off this storm a devstating one or just a bit off rain and a few gusts off wind?

Nothing really of note in this country but France will have some fun. Hopefully people will heed any notices and be sensible.

Turned eerily quiet here but further south into the Pyrenees some very strong winds with apparently 147kmh an hour gust near the main link between France and Spain at the Col De Somport, temperature readings very bizarre, here 24c! 20km away 12c in Pau! Biarritz 22c, must be a very localized foehn effect. I think the Cold front is about to come through and I think some very strong winds imminent!

Stay safe mate our thoughts are with you.

Edited February 27, 2010 by The PIT

[West Sussex Kate]

I think there's a little too much excitement over this low. Anywhere else in the UK and it would be a normal run of the mill winter storm. Ground saturated well at this time of year it always is due to the weak sunlight.

For France is a bad storm certainly but here too be honest nothing to get excited about.

Anyway back to the models in FI land still an easterly progged by the GFS, ECM agrees so the chances it coming off I would say 60:40 so we could be looking at a very interesting start to march bringing something the younger members have never seen. Proper Snow in March.

nope your wrong.....rivers round here are full some have burst!!

[dubmuffin]

I flew back from Tenerife on Friday lunchtime, had 4 days of perfect sunny, warm weather, whilst here I heard it rained constantly. Apparently the storm hit Tenerife on friday afternoon and some flights were cancelled. Now back and enjoying the news reports of the snow in scotland. We nearly went there skiing but were concerned there might not have been enough snow!

Am now enjoying watching a stormm here, so variety of weather for me this week, and the possibility of the easterly next weekend

Weather heaven!

[slb97]

Ok all seems a bit dead in here just a open question to get a few typing - What are people expecting off this storm a devstating one or just a bit off rain and a few gusts off wind?

I'm going by the met office warnings which emphasise the heavy rain rather than really severe winds which are reserved for France unfortunately (in the sense that it's unfortunate for them and I do hope people stay safe naturally).

As most of it seems to be overnight I'll probably be asleep but someone in London has reported thunder/lightening. Does anyone know if the low will generate any thunder?

[Optimus Prime]

Yeah there'll be thunder. I remember the predicted severe gale in 2004...not a breeze all day lmao.

[slb97]

Yeah there'll be thunder. I remember the predicted severe gale in 2004...not a breeze all day lmao.

It would be quite bizarre to have no wind at all! It's still very calm outside. One of the benefits of all the rain is that it keeps a lot of the yobs off the streets

[The PIT]

nope your wrong.....rivers round here are full some have burst!!

Which bit? Ground saturated around this time of year??

Strong winds in France???

Or an inch of rain falling on saturated ground?

It winter and and err you may have floods.

It's very unlikely you'll have 87 type of storm. Meanwhile in France....

[West Sussex Kate]

Wind speeds reaching 74mph.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Westsussex1

[dubmuffin]

Very calm here too, not a whisper of a breeze. Had a shower earlier, think the rain is going to hit much later in the night so I expect to be woken by rain on the windows around 6am. A true calm before the storm...

[slb97]

Just looked at the observations for the Solent and the wind was 3mph at 7pm compared with 23mph at 1pm!

[kent]

Which bit? Ground saturated around this time of year??

Strong winds in France???

Or an inch of rain falling on saturated ground?

It winter and and err you may have floods.

It's very unlikely you'll have 87 type of storm. Meanwhile in France....

Easy to be flippant about the amount of water that will fall in the next 15 hours or so but many rivers will be pushed to breaking point, not everyone live on high ground. The winds will probably be not so significant but the risk of flooding for many should not be dismissed so easily. With the models falling in line for another much colder snap even the hardiest of snow lovers would not be appreciative without the amenities we all take for granted.

[Optimus Prime]

It would be quite bizarre to have no wind at all! It's still very calm outside. One of the benefits of all the rain is that it keeps a lot of the yobs off the streets

Exactly!

[West Sussex Kate]

The part about the ground always being saturated at this time of year due to sunlight.

We've got rivers round here that I've never seen this full. Some rivers have have burst and fields are full of water. So I guess when you say it always is this time of year! I was a bit confused. Coz I haven't seen this happen that often!

[slb97]

Unlikely, but perhaps the possbility of the odd rumble of thunder can't be ruled out I suppose. Factors not conducive of any electrical activity but if there's sufficient ascent along the occluded front then a flash of lightning or rumble of thunder is a possibility. The rainfall, however, is the main feature here in terms of the accumulative totals it will bring. The wind, although not severe, will be rather strong across the south coast, south-east and near to eastern coasts with stron gale force winds likely. Perhaps touching severe gale force briefly across eastern Kent and south-east EA.

Thanks for the reply.

[Evening thunder]

I notice on XCweather that Pau in SW France has gone from 12C with a 3mph variable wind to to 24C with 28-48mph SSW wind between 20:30 and 21:00! (French time) http://www.xcweather.co.uk/FR/observations

Certainly some interesting foehn effects going on it seems!

This will probably interest and relates to nick sussex's post which I noticed earlier on this thread.

[The PIT]

The part about the ground always being saturated at this time of year due to sunlight.

We've got rivers round here that I've never seen this full. Some rivers have have burst and fields are full of water. So I guess when you say it always is this time of year! I was a bit confused. Coz I haven't seen this happen that often!

Ground round here is saturated as well but until Yesterday we had well below normal rainfall. Jan was dry as well. The sun in winter is weak therefore very little evaporation. So it stays wet. If it's very cold the ground can also dry out but it hasn't been so the ground is saturated.

No point panicking about what may happen. Met office isn't very good predicting rainfall amounts anyway.

I'll think you find previous storms in the SE 87 for example much much stronger. Hopefully I'm right and it's called being positive.

Edited February 27, 2010 by The PIT

[slb97]

I've heard about the bizarre temperature changes too - blimey!

[kent]

It would be quite bizarre to have no wind at all! It's still very calm outside. One of the benefits of all the rain is that it keeps a lot of the yobs off the streets

Lol. Even better if they all congregate on the beach and a giant tidal wave washes em clean.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I would agree with PIT if the main issue was wind speeds, but it's the fact that south-east England has already had a lot of rain and could well have another 20-40mm on top of that. The water table will continue to rise and flood plains will be seriously at risk.

[Optimus Prime]

I think we've built on most of the flood plains in the south. Gonna get bad for some.

[kent]

I think we've built on most of the flood plains in the south. Gonna get bad for some.

Exactly seeing as weve covered most of these islands of ours with concrete the water has to go where its not wanted.