Sunday's Low

[Coast]

Are these winds likely to cause problems at Heathrow on sunday, please ?

Surface:

10,000 ft:

30,000 ft:

[jimben]

Thanks Coast.

[ZONE 51]

heres the latest sat

[Iceberg]

12Z NAE takes the low further north and increases the potential flooding problem, for southern coastal counties from Dorset eastwards with spot totals of 40-45mm during Sat and Sun.

[Coast]

12Z NAE takes the low further north and increases the potential flooding problem, for southern coastal counties from Dorset eastwards with spot totals of 40-45mm during Sat and Sun.

I'm currently more concerned about rain and water levels than I am about any high winds. We've already seen around 50mm this week and the ground is waterlogged.

[Iceberg]

Very much Agree Coast, the winds are reserved for La Rochelle and Paris. A very slow moving front across the south of the UK though with pulses of very heavy rain will make a very very unpleasent weekend, with river levels high people had better watch out.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Very much Agree Coast, the winds are reserved for La Rochelle and Paris. A very slow moving front across the south of the UK though with pulses of very heavy rain will make a very very unpleasent weekend, with river levels high people had better watch out.

I've only got the 12z NAE out to t18 so far

[saint]

My question, what do you class as Southern England as it seems that area is being mentioned most for the heavy rain!

[Iceberg]

South of the M4, or even south of the M3 for the really high weekend accumulations, exit points of rivers such as Christchurch could be hit, but anywhere from Dorset to Kent really. At least IMO.

[John London]

12z GFS maintaining a rather deep LP system as it moves north and east across northern parts of France during early morning to 12z Sunday. Looking like widespread severe gale force wind gusts across a good part of central and northern France- mean wind speeds into the mid 40s to low 50s, so gusts of 65-75mph look probable across this region. For the U.K, a very wet and windy Sunday best sums it up.

During early morning on Sunday, I would say winds will be quite strong, coming from a ENE direction, touching gale force along the south coast and across parts of the far south-east. Winds will then veer north to north-westerly during the day and here we could see gale force gusts of 45-55mph in these areas. Main risk, however, will be the persistent, heavy rainfall across southern parts of England, moreso than the wind strength. Again the GFS shows the Low to exit north-east France by 12z Sunday across the southern North sea.

The Low at 00z and 12z Sunday

We have had Gale Force Winds here today with gusts of over 50mph, so Sundays low pressure system won't be noticed in these parts.

[Iceberg]

Another complication to add into the Sunday low is the risk of snow on it's NW flank, NAE makes a snow forecast for parts of the midlands and cotswolds on it's T48 chart. The METO are also mentioning this as well.

some very low DP's get dragging into the circulation and even though thicknesses and 850's arn't that low it's a possibility.

So not just wet and windy, but cold, wet and windy as we go though Sunday.

[yamkin]

The storm forecast on Sunday is very worrying It's not just the gale force winds that will be the only worry, but the heavy rain adding to the already saturated grounds. There will most probably be structural damage due to trees being uprooted due to the very saturated ground.

[John London]

The storm forecast on Sunday is very worrying It's not just the gale force winds that will be the only worry, but the heavy rain adding to the already saturated grounds. There will most probably be structural damage due to trees being uprooted due to the very saturated ground.

Then again it might just be a breezy day.

[kold weather]

I'm currently more concerned about rain and water levels than I am about any high winds. We've already seen around 50mm this week and the ground is waterlogged.

Its the same here in Chichester as well, the ground is almost back to the same state it was in during the last very wet spell in the late Autumn period, which is a shame since it was jsut drying out nicely until this week, now the grounds gone all boggy again!

35-45mm seems a good bet over the next 48hrs for some parts in the south and most of that seems likely to fall during a 24hr period.

[Buckster]

imagine if it had been snow !

[yamkin]

Agreement from other models regarding the deep low on Sunday. This is worrying :shok:

[kent]

Oh thats alright then, the potential of wide scale flooding in some areas and we have nothing to worry about?

[West Sussex Kate]

Oh thats alright then, the potential of wide scale flooding in some areas and we have nothing to worry about?

[yamkin]

Shouldnt be that worrying for Croydon(unless its Croydon in France?)

I should have expanded on why the low is worrying: It's not just the gale force winds that will be the only worry, but the heavy rain adding to the already saturated grounds. There will most probably be structural damage due to trees being uprooted due to the very saturated ground.

Shouldnt be that worrying for Croydon(unless its Croydon in France?)

Please see my above response........I was not referring to Croydon in my previous post

Edited February 26, 2010 by yamkin

[kold weather]

The risk for flooding really is there, some parts here in Chichester already have slight flooding issues though the last 24hrs may have helped ease that situation off a touch. Still another big 24hrs of rainfall will tip some places over the edge I'm pretty sure of that.

[Just Before Dawn]

Flooding is about more than just rain - Sunday morning for example looks like there could certainly be potential issues with abnormally high tides thanks to an E or NE wind in the S North Sea of 20-30 knots on the back of a 7m+ tide means the potential for tidal locking on the east coast around high tide - something to look for, especially north of the Thames Estuary and south of The Wash.

[weather2]

Oh thats alright then, the potential of wide scale flooding in some areas and we have nothing to worry about?

[weather2]

Flooding is about more than just rain - Sunday morning for example looks like there could certainly be potential issues with abnormally high tides thanks to an E or NE wind in the S North Sea of 20-30 knots on the back of a 7m+ tide means the potential for tidal locking on the east coast around high tide - something to look for, especially north of the Thames Estuary and south of The Wash.

Edited February 26, 2010 by weather2

[Deep Snow please]

The north of england seems to be in for a dumping of snow off the north of low on Sunday according to some weather forecasts. Do you think this could cause some power problems with predictions for some of todays snow on high ground to still be there on Sunday. I know its not as big a worry as the SE flood risk but its one I need to watch carefully living in Tyne and Wear.

[i luv snow]

There is nothing to worry about. The rainfall is a cause for some concern, as with it falling upon already saturated ground, there is the potential for flooding. The wind strength will not be much of a feature across the southern half of the U.K- gusting into the mid 50s, perhaps slightly more along coasts at its most intense. These are not damaging winds.

Overall, Sunday will be a very wet and windy day.

Firstly, and even though this isn't what I expect or forecast, and without scare-mongering, thats exactly the kindof attitude people had before '87. Now Im not suggesting we will get a repeat, but that doesn't mean the potential is there for slightly worse than is currently progged.

But worse than this, the ground is already so saturated that many places in EA for example simply wont cope with the amount of rain this will provide. There are areas of Chelmsford, Essex where sandbags are currently protecting houses against flooded streets. The weekends rain will only add pressure in these areas - the risk of flooding is very worrying imo, considering its already an issue across the SE due to the vast amount of rain we have already seen. Certainly gotta keep an eye on it!

Flooding is about more than just rain - Sunday morning for example looks like there could certainly be potential issues with abnormally high tides thanks to an E or NE wind in the S North Sea of 20-30 knots on the back of a 7m+ tide means the potential for tidal locking on the east coast around high tide - something to look for, especially north of the Thames Estuary and south of The Wash.

PRECISELY!

Edited February 26, 2010 by i luv snow