Sunday's Low

[yamkin]

I think we've built on most of the flood plains in the south. Gonna get bad for some.

Thames Barrier might be activated tonight

[benb]

Pretty interesting/unusual set-up tonight, to say the least!

XCWeather sure is great for watching the changingtemps/wind/pressure in these situations.

Incredibly warm temps in the Basque country right now, as others have stated- will these lead to increased instability in the S/SE quadrant of this system as it moves north?

The track and intensity of the low seems to be going as progged- so far!

[saint]

Could we be looking at a July 07 event? (The one that affected a lot of Gloucestershire etc...) Where the rain ammounts came as suprise and we saw all that flooding? Obviously the high river level and sodden ground will not help in this event.

[Bluebreezer54]

Thames Barrier might be activated tonight

Are you sure ? I cant see the point of that because it would prevent the flow of any high river levels of rivers feeding into the Thames from reaching the sea. In a couple of days time when the winds are expected to be N/Ne with a Spring tide maybe, that would make far more sense.

Could we be looking at a July 07 event? (The one that affected a lot of Gloucestershire etc...) Where the rain ammounts came as suprise and we saw all that flooding? Obviously the high river level and sodden ground will not help in this event.

I very much doubt it though there is the possibilty of flooding in some areas. What happend in Gloucestershire was the culmination of weeks of steady rainfall and several days of heavier rainfall. Tonights low may bring 20-50mm to some areas in a relatively short space of time ( 10-15 hours ) Granted some of those areas are pretty much saturated and will get some localised flooding, but I cant see anything on the scale of Glos in 2007 to be honest.

Thats not to downplay the effect it will have on anyone who might be flooded of course.

[Costa Del Fal]

XC Weather suggests its as warm as 24c in SW France right now while every where else is much cooler.

[chapmanslade]

XC Weather suggests its as warm as 24c in SW France right now while every where else is much cooler.

Fohn effect - Santander and all along the North Spanish coast recorded 20C to 24C this afternoon with very dry air.

Gust in the Pyrenees at Pic du Midi of 233Km/h and widely over 150Km/h.

Saunac in France 11.3C to 20.6C in 20 minutes !!!!

Edited February 27, 2010 by chapmanslade

[yamkin]

Are you sure ? I cant see the point of that because it would prevent the flow of any high river levels of rivers feeding into the Thames from reaching the sea. In a couple of days time when the winds are expected to be N/Ne with a Spring tide maybe, that would make far more sense.

This link covers all eventualities regarding the Thames Barrier http://www.londonprepared.gov.uk/downloads/flood_repsonse_plan.pdf :)

Edited February 27, 2010 by yamkin

[Deep Snow please]

Just spent a while reading through this thread and there seems to be a bit of confusion over this LP system in regards to:

How much rain could fall?

Where the northern boundary is?

Where the western boundary is?

How severe the flood risks are?

Personally I'm more concerned for Western mainland europe at the moment with some of the reports a lot of there powerlines could be brought down and trees falling, with this kind of worry to deal with and the Chile earthquake think yourself lucky if you've only got to replace your living room. Also I doubt the flood levels will reach the level of the November cumbria floods where 6ft of water hit some houses. So don't hype up you're flood threats in comparassion to the above they a only minor problems.

Again this is only my opinion the only people who should worry badly are those who get tides between 25-30ft tommorow and live near the coast and seperatly those who live at the bottom of very big hills. Finally worry if you live in the parts of exeter that are already protecting there houses with sandbags you've got cause for concern.

Thames Barrier might be activated tonight

Whats so worrying about that does it increase your personal flood chances?

[coldfingers]

nope your wrong.....rivers round here are full some have burst!!

Hi, Just got round to reading this and I agree about the possible flooding risk for tomorrow. The Aldingbourne rife at Felpham (flowing a few hundred yards from me) was on a flood watch until just after high tide today. With the heavy rain expected from midnight, forecast heavy for 6 hours, torrential for 3 hours then heavy for another 6 hours, means that flood watch will be back on tomorrow and possibly be a flood warning too. I will certainly keep an eye on it at high tide at midday tomorrow and for a couple of hours either side of then. Not really concerned about the winds, forecast F9 and nothing unusual about that for the coast plus it will be blowing against the tide so may help keep it lower.

I have measured the rain this last week and we have had four and a half inches in Bognor already. Another possible inch or so tomorrow will do a lot of damage.

Current temp 7.7C pressure 983 and very light rain.

Edited February 27, 2010 by coldfingers

[Bluebreezer54]

This link covers all eventualities regarding the Thames Barrier http://www.londonpre...psonse_plan.pdf

Thanks for that link Yamkin.......the very first page told me that its about protecting London from Tidal Flooding and internal flooding from tributaries and flood water runoff from within London, two very different things, which is why I asked the question. The threat, such as it is from this low is from river flooding, not tidal surely, so it would make more sense to keep the barrier down and let any possible floodwaters flow into the Thames and out into the sea. Raising the barrier would hold that back. Doesnt make sense to me.

[yamkin]

Hi, Just got round to reading this and I agree about the possible flooding risk for tomorrow. The Aldingbourne rife at Felpham (flowing a few hundred yards from me) was on a flood watch until just after high tide today. With the heavy rain expected from midnight, forecast heavy for 6 hours, torrential for 3 hours then heavy for another 6 hours, means that flood watch will be back on tomorrow and possibly be a flood warning too. I will certainly keep an eye on it at high tide at midday tomorrow and for a couple of hours either side of then. Not really concerned about the winds, forecast F9 and nothing unusual about that for the coast plus it will be blowing against the tide so may help keep it lower.

I have measured the rain this last week and we have had four and a half inches in Bognor already. Another possible inch or so tomorrow will do a lot of damage.

Current temp 7.7C pressure 983 and very light rain.

Flood Warnings :) http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx :)

[The PIT]

Hi, Just got round to reading this and I agree about the possible flooding risk for tomorrow. The Aldingbourne rife at Felpham (flowing a few hundred yards from me) was on a flood watch until just after high tide today. With the heavy rain expected from midnight, forecast heavy for 6 hours, torrential for 3 hours then heavy for another 6 hours, means that flood watch will be back on tomorrow and possibly be a flood warning too. I will certainly keep an eye on it at high tide at midday tomorrow and for a couple of hours either side of then. Not really concerned about the winds, forecast F9 and nothing unusual about that for the coast plus it will be blowing against the tide so may help keep it lower.

I have measured the rain this last week and we have had four and a half inches in Bognor already. Another possible inch or so tomorrow will do a lot of damage.

Current temp 7.7C pressure 983 and very light rain.

You've got an inch predicted tomorrow slightly more on higher ground and possibly slightly more in one or two spots. More likely than not you'll get less than that in 24 hour period. No monsoons forecast yes you may get a little flooding but spare a thought about people in France or northern Spain.

On a side note I've just replayed XC weather pressure and it has the low moving NW. ?????

Edited February 27, 2010 by The PIT

[coldfingers]

You've got an inch predicted tomorrow slightly more on higher ground and possibly slightly more in one or two spots. More likely than not you'll get less than that in 24 hour period. No monsoons forecast yes you may get a little flooding but spare a thought about people in France or northern Spain.

Yes, I quite agree, for us it will be a minor inconvenience, for people in some parts of France it could be another '87 storm and a lot of people died in France then. Let's hope this wont be as bad as that but for those areas it is looking to be a frightening time!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi, Just got round to reading this and I agree about the possible flooding risk for tomorrow. The Aldingbourne rife at Felpham (flowing a few hundred yards from me) was on a flood watch until just after high tide today. With the heavy rain expected from midnight, forecast heavy for 6 hours, torrential for 3 hours then heavy for another 6 hours, means that flood watch will be back on tomorrow and possibly be a flood warning too. I will certainly keep an eye on it at high tide at midday tomorrow and for a couple of hours either side of then. Not really concerned about the winds, forecast F9 and nothing unusual about that for the coast plus it will be blowing against the tide so may help keep it lower.

I have measured the rain this last week and we have had four and a half inches in Bognor already. Another possible inch or so tomorrow will do a lot of damage.

Current temp 7.7C pressure 983 and very light rain.

There should be a difference in terms of comparable wind effect with a standard atlantic low that brings south westerly gales to the south coast. The strongest winds tomorrow will be from virtually the opposite direction, at least northerly, and an offshore wind on the south coast will not be as potent as the same wind gradient as suggested tomorrow would be found with an onshore wind. That is not to say that there are not still going to be some quite wild winds, at least for a relatively short time (from late morning-ish to perhaps early/ mid afternoon as the low passes by) but the effects will probably be felt more on the windward coasts of North Kent for eg than the south coast. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph perhaps.

Edited February 27, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[wee]

You've got an inch predicted tomorrow slightly more on higher ground and possibly slightly more in one or two spots. More likely than not you'll get less than that in 24 hour period. No monsoons forecast yes you may get a little flooding but spare a thought about people in France or northern Spain.

On a side note I've just replayed XC weather pressure and it has the low moving NW. ?????

I think that most people on here are thinking of people in France and Northern Spain,but human nature also makes you worry about yourself and neighbours around you so it is natural for people to be worried about there own area,correct me if i am wrong?

[yamkin]

Thanks for that link Yamkin.......the very first page told me that its about protecting London from Tidal Flooding and internal flooding from tributaries and flood water runoff from within London, two very different things, which is why I asked the question. The threat, such as it is from this low is from river flooding, not tidal surely, so it would make more sense to keep the barrier down and let any possible floodwaters flow into the Thames and out into the sea. Raising the barrier would hold that back. Doesnt make sense to me.

I see what you mean. If there is a twist in the approaching low pressure, I can understand why the powers to be are on standby just in case.

Update from Ian Fergusson: The storm is currently undergoing explosive deepening NW of Portugal and is yet to cross the Bay of Biscay.

[coldfingers]

Flood Warnings :help: http://www.environme...oods/31618.aspx :help:

Thanks, ours is the Barnham and Aldingbourne Rifes and it still has an all clear thankfully. May not be so good in the areas they are already building new houses on though. They are building in the flood risk areas so they will pay a fortune for insurance when they come to be lived in!! Even the road they plan to put through is now going to be a viaduct rather than an embankment. I wonder why?

[Bluebreezer54]

.............. No monsoons forecast yes you may get a little flooding but spare a thought about people in France or northern Spain.

I think that goes without saying, but Ive yet to see anyone in this topic say they didnt give a fig about anyone in France or Spain so it seems a bit of an odd thing to say.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

You've got an inch predicted tomorrow slightly more on higher ground and possibly slightly more in one or two spots. More likely than not you'll get less than that in 24 hour period. No monsoons forecast yes you may get a little flooding but spare a thought about people in France or northern Spain.

On a side note I've just replayed XC weather pressure and it has the low moving NW. ?????

This site, plus NAE and the fax suggest everything is going exactly as predicted This is the 10pm position. Latest 18z NAE is in line with that (taking into account the two hour midnight placement)

Edited February 27, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[coldfingers]

Looking at the METO infrared satelite it looks like the worst of the rainfall will be on the north of this system and the severe winds on the south. Can anyone confirm that for me?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Interesting that Ian Fergusson says the Met Office modelling suggesting a spell of "wild conditions" across Sussex and Kent. That'll probably be when the Low begins to push out of France and winds across south-eastern England begin to veer north to north westerly. As I said earlier, wouldn't be be surprised to see some gusts touching severe gale force for a very brief period across eastern Kent in particular. But generally it will strong to gale force strength gusts across these parts.

He refers to the brief possibility of 60 to 70mph wind gusts first thing for the Channel Islands and so within the context of that being the probable highest potential 'this side' of the low then probably 50 to 60mph gusts is more the mark for southern most parts of England (and me!). But couple that with heavy driving rain and it makes wild enough conditions anyway!

Edited February 27, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[wee]

It is very calm here ,it is too quiet,to the point that i think it may be a bad storm.Like they say the calm before the storm.Maybe i will be wrong and i hope i am but i have a hunch that it will be worse than i thought .

[coldfingers]

Interesting that Ian Fergusson says the Met Office modelling suggesting a spell of "wild conditions" across Sussex and Kent. That'll probably be when the Low begins to push out of France and winds across south-eastern England begin to veer north to north westerly. As I said earlier, wouldn't be be surprised to see some gusts touching severe gale force for a very brief period across eastern Kent in particular. But generally it will strong to gale force strength gusts across these parts.

Severe Gale force 9 soon for Dover, Wight, Portland and Plymouth. Biscay Hurricane Force 12 for a time!

See Met Office shipping forecast!

By the way, those are sustained winds not gusts. France is looking to be having some very severe winds from this storm.

Edited February 27, 2010 by coldfingers

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It is very calm here ,it is too quiet,to the point that i think it may be a bad storm.Like they say the calm before the storm.Maybe i will be wrong and i hope i am but i have a hunch that it will be worse than i thought .

Sometimes that does apply, but sometimes there is calm..and then just something more active ...but without being armeggeddon

[wee]

Sometimes that does apply, but sometimes there is calm..and then just something more active ...but without being armeggeddon

Thanks for the reply you put my mind at ease,getting a bit ahead of myself lol