METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 29 Dec 2011 to Thursday 12 Jan 2012:

Unsettled conditions should dominate the period with periods of wind and rain. As a result temperatures will often be around average or above. However, this does not preclude some intervening colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 14 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

UK Outlook for Thursday 29 Dec 2011 to Thursday 12 Jan 2012:

Unsettled conditions should dominate the period with periods of wind and rain. As a result temperatures will often be around average or above. However, this does not preclude some intervening colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 14 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Gavin? how about not bolding bits we can all read

thanks

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Dec 2011 to Friday 13 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1213 on Thu 15 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov...uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Dec 2011 to Friday 13 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1213 on Thu 15 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 31 Dec 2011 to Saturday 14 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1227 on Fri 16 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 1 Jan 2012 to Sunday 15 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1151 on Sat 17 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[johnholmes]

both their 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks, to me, seem more realistic, than the last 1 or 2 that seem to suggest a milder interlude generally.

The phrases they use seem to support the 3 500mb anomaly charts so one must assume that the oft quoted 32 day ECMWF charts (we don't see them) are following this idea. Much as I suggested earlier this morning having kept an eye on the 3 500mb charts over the past few days.

Their outlooks for both periods, in my view, are as good, in the sense of accuracy, based on the latest outputs, as we are going to get.

The synoptic models, due to the predicted 500mb flow strength, mirrored at higher levels also, will never really get hold of individual low centres or the nuances of a touch milder and a shade colder bursts of air until quite close to the event. The happenings over the past 7 days should have proved that to anyone, seasoned or new watcher on these forums.

Last Sunday the Met O Fax for T+120 (Friday) had a low of < 950mb near Newcastle, it was actually on the chart at 12z Friday at 52N09E with a centre of 965mb.Only some 500+ miles away-nothing on a hemisphereical scale but all important on the UK scale. In essence the idea of a disturbed spell was correct, just its positioning and depth not so good. That is the way it will stay UNTIL, who knows when, the major wavelength pattern around the northern hemisphere changes.

Edited December 17, 2011 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Jan 2012 to Monday 16 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 18 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 17 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1205 on Mon 19 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 4 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 18 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1122 on Tue 20 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Jan 2012 to Thursday 19 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1139 on Wed 21 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 6 Jan 2012 to Friday 20 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1200 on Thu 22 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 7 Jan 2012 to Saturday 21 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in parts of the north. Sunshine amounts are predicted to be around generally near normal although may be above average in some southern and eastern parts.

Updated: 1134 on Fri 23 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 7 Jan 2012 to Saturday 21 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in parts of the north. Sunshine amounts are predicted to be around generally near normal although may be above average in some southern and eastern parts.

Updated: 1134 on Fri 23 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 9 Jan 2012 to Monday 23 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around or above average. However, this does not preclude some transient colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, most likely in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in parts of the north and below average across some southern areas. Sunshine amounts are predicted to be generally near normal, but perhaps rising above average in some southern and eastern areas.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 25 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 10 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 24 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around or above average. However, this does not preclude some transient colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, most likely in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in parts of the north and below average across some southern areas. Sunshine amounts are predicted to be generally near normal, but perhaps rising above average in some southern and eastern areas.

Updated: 1131 on Mon 26 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 11 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 25 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around or above average. However, this does not preclude some transient colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, most likely in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in parts of the north and below average across some southern areas. Sunshine amounts are predicted to be generally near normal, but perhaps rising above average in some southern and eastern areas.

Updated: 1159 on Tue 27 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 12 Jan 2012 to Thursday 26 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around or above average. However, this does not preclude some transient colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, most likely in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in parts of the north and below average across some southern areas. Sunshine amounts are predicted to be generally near normal, but perhaps rising above average in some southern and eastern areas.

Updated: 1105 on Wed 28 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 13 Jan 2012 to Friday 27 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around or above average. However, this does not preclude some transient colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, most likely in the north. Precipitation amounts are likely to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in parts of the north and below average across some southern areas. Sunshine amounts are predicted to be generally near normal, but perhaps rising above average in some southern and eastern areas.

Updated: 1159 on Thu 29 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 14 Jan 2012 to Saturday 28 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely at first with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern and western areas. As a result temperatures are expected to be generally around or above average for much of the country. However, some transient colder spells between weather systems are still likely, with some snowfall possible, mainly in the north. Precipitation amounts are expected to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in northwestern areas. Sunshine amounts are expected to be generally near-normal. Towards the end of January there are indications that temperatures may fall closer to average, perhaps slightly below at times. High pressure may become more influential, resulting in precipitation amounts falling below average in places, with more in the way of sunshine and increasingly widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1212 on Fri 30 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 14 Jan 2012 to Saturday 28 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely at first with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern and western areas. As a result temperatures are expected to be generally around or above average for much of the country. However, some transient colder spells between weather systems are still likely, with some snowfall possible, mainly in the north. Precipitation amounts are expected to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in northwestern areas. Sunshine amounts are expected to be generally near-normal. Towards the end of January there are indications that temperatures may fall closer to average, perhaps slightly below at times. High pressure may become more influential, resulting in precipitation amounts falling below average in places, with more in the way of sunshine and increasingly widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1212 on Fri 30 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Apart from the North it looks like another mainly snow free month is on its way.

Edited December 30, 2011 by Gavin D

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Jan 2012 to Sunday 29 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely at first with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern and western areas. As a result temperatures are expected to be generally around or above average for much of the country. However, some transient colder spells between weather systems are still likely, with some snowfall possible, mainly in the north. Precipitation amounts are expected to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in northwestern areas. Sunshine amounts are expected to be generally near-normal. Towards the end of January there are indications that temperatures may fall closer to average, perhaps slightly below at times. High pressure may become more influential, resulting in precipitation amounts falling below average in places, with more in the way of sunshine and increasingly widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1146 on Sat 31 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Backtrack]

Apart from the North it looks like another mainly snow free month is on its way.

Really? You seem confident that the weather in 30 days will be mild?

Perhaps you could apply for the site forecasting team, and share the crystal ball with the rest of us.

[Methuselah]

Really? You seem confident that the weather in 30 days will be mild?

Perhaps you could apply for the site forecasting team, and share the crystal ball with the rest of us.

Maybe yes, maybe no, Backtrack. But the MetO monthly outlook does indeed suggest a largely snow-free time, whether we like it or not.

I think that that is all Gavin D was trying to say?

[Backtrack]

Maybe yes, maybe no, Backtrack. But the MetO monthly outlook does indeed suggest a largely snow-free time, whether we like it or not.

I think that that is all Gavin D was trying to say?

Maybe, but I can see a rather big pattern change occurring around mid-month, and I will be surprised if the UKMO don't start to fall in line with that within the next 10 days.

Also, I love the new name.