METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Summer Sun]

I hope that one in bold happens as those of us in the east would get the best of the snow, I'm in a great position for snow from any type of Easterly

[Radiating Dendrite]

There must be a mega signal for cold somewhere though showing on their data/model runs.

I know that they have the mild scenario as well, but that is probably just covering their tracks if the cold signal is weaker/does not materialise.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[Andy_]

Well i've never seen the Met Office put their necks on the line for a while now, and they clearly think this 'colder second scenario' must be achievable otherwise they wouldn't put it on their forecast, if the newspapers get wind of this and they're wrong then it will look bad for them. On the other hand they have said it is one of two scenarios so perhaps they are still covering their backs and still doing a bit fence sitting.

Kudos to them for bringing up the possibility though, it shows that perhaps they aren't so monotonous by always forecasting default weather in their long range forecasts.

This is my favourite quote of the winter from them!

The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

[Summer Sun]

There must be a mega signal for cold somewhere though showing on their data/model runs.

I know that they have the mild scenario as well, but that is probably just covering their tracks if the cold signal is weaker/does not materialise.

One thing though it does support Matt Hugo's thoughts from this morning

[chionomaniac]

As far as I can see it is no different to what we have been discussing on here for the past week. It would appear that the meto are no different in that respect.

[Zakos]

There is always the possibility, that the met are confident of the outcome, but do not want to scaremonger, as you can bet it woukd be on the front page of many tabloids the next day if they didnt give a 50/0 chance. Just a thought.

[syed2878]

well guys i hope the easteners shaire their snow and cold with us if or when they get it with us in the wm

[Catacol]

The latest Met Office forecast suggests just how much uncertainty there is in the models at the minute.

We are dealing with a major pattern change, and the models need to adjust to that.

Looking at the odds at the moment, it's looking like the Met Office are 60-40% in favour of mild over cold at the moment.

Knowing how organisations work, and the need always to release information to Joe Bloogs rather carefully (in any business) I disagree with this. I suspect that a 30/70 split was probably their verdict when using the previous forecast; this new forecast smacks, to me, of a decision that the balance of probability has actually slid above the 50%, and probably up towards a 60/70% certainty of cold. As a result the language changes to a possibility, but they will continue to state that it is less than 50% to prevent any egg left on face afterwards, even though their reading of it is that cold is likely.

It's all about perception and the need to be in control of information

[Isolated Frost]

It's like Ian Brown and GP had a scuffle at the super-computer and compromised, half-mild and half-cold!

[Chris K]

A good update from them in my opinion. its nice to see them saying that theres 2 main possible scenarios considering the different model outputs. hopefully the media wont hype this up and twist it in anyway once they find it

personally i hope the cold scenario comes to fruition, but i kind of take this update as "possible cold setup but we could end up on the wrong side" sort of thing. would like to see some snow before spring arrives at our doorstep, like many others im sure. Will wait and see i guess as the next couple of weeks progress

[cyclonic happiness]

well guys i hope the easteners shaire their snow and cold with us if or when they get it with us in the wm

Seems to be the only direction that we get snow from nowadays, the east and the south, non of those nasty mountain ranges to gobble up all of the precipitation.

Has made me a little more hopeful for the winter that's left, but we've had far too many kicks in the teeth here in the Midlands the past couple of years to rely on anything really.

Fingers crossed!

Edited January 17, 2012 by cyclonic happiness

[KTtom]

Thats sorted then...a northwesterly it is!

[DAVID SNOW]

As far as I can see it is no different to what we have been discussing on here for the past week. It would appear that the meto are no different in that respect.

In that respect true C, but you top guys on here dont have millions in Govenment funding,or a 30 million pound Super Computer tucked away in the back of the shed.

If they dont know,re very mild,or very cold,can they not just say"we do not know"?

[damianslaw]

Yes knowing how public organisations work - (I work for one...), they are notoriously cautious in their words, and don't mention things if there is not a realistic chance of them occuring whilst at the same time covering there backs by saying words like 'possible' - anything is possible as the adage goes...

The timescales they are talking about are not far away - less than 2 weeks, they must lay there cards on the table by the weekend at the latest. Given the hemispheric signals upstream at present I would have been more surprised if they were continuing to call a mild outlook for Feb- clearly the signals are there for a potential very cold period, but they are just signals and everything will come down to where the blocking centres itself - and I am preety confident blocking to the north will occur before this month is out.

[Aaron]

From the Met Office:

However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts

.

Direct from the horses mouth.

Edited January 18, 2012 by Aaron

[AWD]

From the Met Office:

Direct from the horses mouth.

I think that is quite widespread news now mate! Lol!

Got posted many times 12 hours ago!!

[Aaron]

I think that is quite widespread news now mate! Lol!

Got posted many times 12 hours ago!!

Looking through, many other things were posted, but not the quote I posted - which looks more promising to me then 'it could go either way'

Edited January 18, 2012 by Aaron

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2012 to Thursday 16 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1209 on Wed 18 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Weathizard]

Be interesting to see todays update, if the METO take their comments away it will be a hammer blow to cold weather fans

[Summer Sun]

Be interesting to see todays update, if the METO take their comments away it will be a hammer blow to cold weather fans

I think it will be tomorrow (Friday) before we see any changes I would like to be proved wrong but that's when the next ECM 32 day outlook is updated so today I would think will be the same as the past few day's.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 3 Feb 2012 to Friday 17 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1200 on Thu 19 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[AWD]

At least this one has remain unchanged............................. for now!!

[Rollo]

Its a nightmare scenario for them and for us should the first forecast be true.

[EML Network]

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2012 to Thursday 16 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1209 on Wed 18 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

ERM that was yesterday's update ...no ??

Reads word for word the same as ''WEDNESDAYS'' update

As far as I can see there has been NO update today YET...on the 6-15 day outlook OR the 16-30 day ??

[Summer Sun]

ERM that was yesterday's update ...no ??

Reads word for word the same as ''WEDNESDAYS'' update

As far as I can see there has been NO update today YET...on the 6-15 day outlook OR the 16-30 day ??

Both have been updated and posted today post 696 on this page and here for the 6 to 15 day outlook -

Edited January 19, 2012 by Gavin D