METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Feb 2012 to Saturday 18 Feb 2012:

The forecast for early February remains very uncertain. There appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly weather type with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1231 on Fri 20 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[lorenzo]

Are the Meto ramping Beasterlies in the extended outlook :)

[syed2878]

It seem's the met just copied and pasted the wed update yesterday and today. Lets hope we all get to c some of those white flakes soon. Many parts of wm.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2012 to Sunday 19 Feb 2012:

The forecast for early February remains very uncertain. There appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly weather type with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1137 on Sat 21 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_pressure.html

[mcweather]

It seem's the met just copied and pasted the wed update yesterday and today. Lets hope we all get to c some of those white flakes soon. Many parts of wm.

The Meto exteneded range outlook won't change at all until the the next ECM 32 Dayer ( on which it is based ) is updated and that won't be over the weekend. Monday is the next one I think.

Edited January 21, 2012 by mcweather

[Methuselah]

At least somebody is publishing a realistic forecast.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

The forecast for early February remains very uncertain. There appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly weather type with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1136 on Sun 22 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[shuggee]

A balanced and well presented outlook for me.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 21 Feb 2012:

The forecast for early February remains very uncertain. There appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly weather type with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1135 on Mon 23 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 22 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. There appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. The first scenario consists of a changeable weather feeding in from the west or southwest, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail during February, bringing widespread frosts and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1148 on Tue 24 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[AWD]

Ooooooh, I was hoping for some kind of swaying towards one of the scenarios today! Looks like the fence continues to be sat on then!!! When will it change!

[tollgateiow]

Interesting change of words on todays update saying cold weather will prevail during February as opposed to yesterdays cold weather will prevail well in to February.

[Peter H]

RTE are now predicting very cold frosty weather to win out next week after an initial brief mild spell at the weekend

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain.However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Bogman]

^{Good, dominoes have fallen.}

[carinthian]

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain.However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Thats a fairly confident prediction from the Met Office and nice to see this kind of report. Anything with a plus 70% prediction

should go to form, 60-70% still leaves a little doubt. But the guidline is a good indicator of how the Met Office senior forecastor sees things.

C

[La Bise]

I concur, decisive step towards calling February cold and under easterly influence there.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

Updated: 1142 on Thu 26 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Tim Bland]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

Edited January 27, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_alltext.html

This is in the wrong place

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Was worth the wait looking highly likely for a severe cold spell now.

[Chris K]

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Well they must be seeing something of significance as this forecast does sound like it has more confidence! Now it's just a case on waiting and watching to see any changes made in their forecasts over the next week.

[Glacier Point]

This is of interest... the analogues on which I based the winter forecast picked out a strong ppn signal for February, in addition to the below average temperature signal. Bit of a conflict with the NOAA version of events seekning to raise pressure in the Atantic.

[shedhead]

Bit of an odd forecast that one. Quote daytime and nightime temps to be below or well below average in the south, then put the emphasis on prolonged spells of rain, with the risk of some sig falls of snow too. With temps below or well below average I'd have expected the emphasis to be on the snow. Interpreting their wording, it looks like they feel the block will be attacked at times from the SW during the 2nd half of Feb, so for this to happen you must assume they still expect it to be in situ over us even 3-4 week hence.

Edited January 27, 2012 by shedhead