METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Don]

Bit of an odd forecast that one. Quote daytime and nightime temps to be below or well below average in the south, then put the emphasis on prolonged spells of rain, with the risk of some sig falls of snow too. With temps below or well below average I'd have expected the emphasis to be on the snow. Interpreting their wording, it looks like they feel the block will be attacked at times from the SW during the 2nd half of Feb, so for this to happen you must assume they still expect it to be in situ over us even 3-4 week hence.

Yes that's exactly what I thought. It's a bit odd forecasting below or well below average temperatures and then mention rain with the risk of significant snow. Like you say, they must expect the block to be attacked at times but with the likelihood of the block winning out at the end of the day. I do hope they're on the money. After what we've had to endure the last couple of months, we deserve a decent end to Winter!

Edited January 27, 2012 by Don

[shedhead]

Yes that's exactly what I thought. It's a bit odd forecasting below or well below average temperatures and then mention rain with the risk of significant snow. Like you say, they must expect the block to be attacked at times but with the likelihood of the block winning out at the end of the day. I do hope they're on the money. After what we've had to endure the last couple of months, we deserve a decent end to Winter!

Agreed Don, but like everyone else I still think the MO are really struggling, despite everything they have at their disposal. We keep hearing this is going to be **** or bust month, but I think there is still room for a mostly dry, settled and cold one, or the kind of battleground set up both of us interpreted from their update... As ever time will tell, but one thing is certain we are running out of time here as far as official Winter is concerned, with and under 5 weeks to go now.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Feb 2012 to Sunday 26 Feb 2012:

Mostly cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1237 on Sat 28 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Feb 2012 to Monday 27 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average

Updated: 1212 on Sun 29 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Feb 2012 to Monday 27 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average

Updated: 1212 on Sun 29 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 28 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average

Updated: 1136 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 29 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average much of the time. This would also suggest rainfall amounts being largely near or below average in many areas but, possibly, above average over southern Britain. Given below average temperatures are expected, some snow is also likely at times.

Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Feb 2012 to Thursday 1 Mar 2012:

Temperatures will probably be around average at first, but cold weather looks likely to prevail during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below average for much of the time. Rainfall amounts will probably be near or below average in many areas, but possibly above average over southern Britain, and with below average temperatures expected there is the potential for snow at times.

Updated: 1219 on Wed 1 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[snow drift]

What is interesting is that the 6-15 discusses that it will be still cold in the east on monday. That to me implies a fun weekend for some with warm air making slower progress than most output would have us believe.

Edited February 1, 2012 by snow drift

[AWD]

Still bullish for cold mid - late Feb then!

Only time will tell! :smilz38:

[Don]

Still bullish for cold mid - late Feb then!

Only time will tell! :smilz38:

The trouble is the cold is being pushed back to late Winter. I have to admit that I have given up on this Winter now and that I think it will go down as a duffer! If we do get a decent February then great, but i think if you're expecting one the chances are you'll be disappointed. Sorry to sound so negative but the outlook's a familiar story of chasing the pot of gold in a mild Winter which we never quite get.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Don

[shedhead]

What is interesting is that the 6-15 discusses that it will be still cold in the east on monday. That to me implies a fun weekend for some with warm air making slower progress than most output would have us believe.

Not so sure it does to be fair, it's probably just reflective of low surface temps due to the cold ground and maybe even some fairly extensive low cloud/fog, which is atypical of a milder breakdown of this nature.

[davehsug]

I sense the start of a withdrawal from the cold outlook here. Little things like below average instead of well below. It wouldn't be a surprise if it moved away progressively further in the coming days.

[Don]

I sense the start of a withdrawal from the cold outlook here. Little things like below average instead of well below. It wouldn't be a surprise if it moved away progressively further in the coming days.

Exactly, I think we should just accept that we're not going to see anything noteworthy this Winter and if we do then that will be a bonus. Anyway I'll keep quiet now!

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Feb 2012 to Friday 2 Mar 2012:

Temperatures will probably be around average, perhaps slightly below average at first, but cold weather looks likely to prevail during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below average for much of the time. Rainfall amounts will probably be near or below average in many areas, but possibly above average over southern Britain, and with below average temperatures expected there is the potential for snow at times.

Updated: 1233 on Thu 2 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Feb 2012 to Sunday 4 Mar 2012:

Mainly cold weather looks likely to prevail during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures expected to be below average for much of the time. Rainfall amounts will probably be near or below average in many areas, but possibly above average over southern Britain. Meanwhile, with below average temperatures expected, there is the potential for some snow at times.

Updated: 1301 on Sat 4 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Feb 2012 to Monday 5 Mar 2012:

Though starting off cold, mainly across southeastern Britain, there looks to be a gradual trend to less cold and more changeable conditions in many areas, with temperatures by day and night closer to average. That said, being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter interludes. Further snow cannot be ruled out during any transition to milder conditions. By the end of the period however, rainfall, especially across southern areas looks to be above average. Sunshine amounts also look to remain around normal.

Updated: 1158 on Sun 5 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Peter H]

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Feb 2012 to Monday 5 Mar 2012:

Though starting off cold, mainly across southeastern Britain, there looks to be a gradual trend to less cold and more changeable conditions in many areas, with temperatures by day and night closer to average. That said, being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter interludes. Further snow cannot be ruled out during any transition to milder conditions. By the end of the period however, rainfall, especially across southern areas looks to be above average. Sunshine amounts also look to remain around normal.

Updated: 1158 on Sun 5 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Hmmm.

Nothing exceptional about that.

[KTtom]

Bit of a backtrack away from below average temps and snowfall to the south! Seems to be a trend away from a Greenie high dominated second half to Feb....a bit concerning for those who still haven't seen anything wintry yet.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2012:

Though starting off cold, mainly across southeastern Britain, there looks to be a gradual trend to less cold and more changeable conditions in many areas, with temperatures by day and night closer to average. That said, being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter interludes. Further snow cannot be ruled out during any transition to milder conditions. By the end of the period however, rainfall, especially across southern areas looks to be above average. Sunshine amounts also look to remain around normal.

Updated: 1148 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[UV-RAY]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2012:

Though starting off cold, mainly across southeastern Britain, there looks to be a gradual trend to less cold and more changeable conditions in many areas, with temperatures by day and night closer to average. That said, being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter interludes. Further snow cannot be ruled out during any transition to milder conditions. By the end of the period however, rainfall, especially across southern areas looks to be above average. Sunshine amounts also look to remain around normal.

Updated: 1148 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

GFS 06z looks a non starter then.

[Tim Bland]

Edited shortly after to this,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1230 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

[johnholmes]

Edited shortly after to this,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1230 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

I have to say I am not impressed for such a change in such a short time. No doubt the ECMWF 32 day outlook was seen to cause some of this but to me its not very proefessional. Mind you I tend to agree with the 16-30 day outlook as my posts today should confirm. As to how quickly we get into that pattern through next week I'm less certain.

[blizzard81]

Edited shortly after to this,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1230 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

The reason is simple, Darren Betts exterminated the duty forecaster and got his wicked hands on the controls!!

[Tim Bland]

Seems to go against the ECM 32 dayer which is strange. No mention of the 'S' whord at all now ?! Let see if they flip back to cold tommorow?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1211 on Tue 7 Feb 2012

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