METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Summer Sun]

Maybe yes, maybe no, Backtrack. But the MetO monthly outlook does indeed suggest a largely snow-free time, whether we like it or not.

I think that that is all Gavin D was trying to say?

Correct based on there current outlook it looks like staying mainly snow free but there is time for change I think the first half of Jan will stay more a less as it is now but the second half and into Feb is when changes should happen I would be very suprised if this pattern lasted through-out winter.

Edited December 31, 2011 by Gavin D

[johnholmes]

I would be very suprised if this patter lasted through-out winter.

I know the word you meant was pattern Gavin but it amused me to think that the word patter could sum up some of the posts on here and that they might change before the end of winter-if only!

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 16 Jan 2012 to Monday 30 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely at first with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern and western areas. As a result temperatures are expected to be generally around or above average for much of the country. However, some transient colder spells between weather systems are still likely, with some snowfall possible, mainly in the north. Precipitation amounts are expected to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in northwestern areas. Sunshine amounts are expected to be generally near-normal. Towards the end of January there are indications that temperatures may fall closer to average, perhaps slightly below at times. High pressure may become more influential, resulting in precipitation amounts falling below average in places, with more in the way of sunshine and increasingly widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 1 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 16 Jan 2012 to Monday 30 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely at first with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern and western areas. As a result temperatures are expected to be generally around or above average for much of the country. However, some transient colder spells between weather systems are still likely, with some snowfall possible, mainly in the north. Precipitation amounts are expected to be near-normal for much of the UK, but perhaps above average in northwestern areas. Sunshine amounts are expected to be generally near-normal. Towards the end of January there are indications that temperatures may fall closer to average, perhaps slightly below at times. High pressure may become more influential, resulting in precipitation amounts falling below average in places, with more in the way of sunshine and increasingly widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 1 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain, interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the end of January, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

Updated: 1133 on Mon 2 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 1 Feb 2012:

Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain, interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the end of January, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

Updated: 1137 on Tue 3 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 19 Jan 2012 to Thursday 2 Feb 2012:

Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain, interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the end of January, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

Updated: 1329 on Wed 4 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 20 Jan 2012 to Friday 3 Feb 2012:

Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the beginning of February, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the period, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

Updated: 1143 on Thu 5 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[feb1991blizzard]

Kind of get the feeling this is quite a big one for us cold and snow fans tommorow, it will cover the first week of feb, now im not saying that its game over for the winter if there is nothing favourable in tommorows update but if there is to be this pattern change around the end of the month you kind of get the feeling that the met office would at least mention the possibility of something a little colder, dont anticipate a sudden change mentioning severe cold and blizzards or anything like that, thats not the terminology the met would use untill closer the time, if they mention temperatures trending below average with wintry showers in Eastern areas then that is a big step in the right direction

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 21 Jan 2012 to Saturday 4 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected to remain close to normal throughout the period but may fall a little below across Scotland and Northern Ireland as we head towards February. The risk of overnight frosts will therefore continue in many areas. Rainfall amounts may be slightly below average at first across England and Wales but most of the UK will see a return to normal rainfall by the end of January. Amounts of sunshine should be fairly usual for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1114 on Fri 6 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[feb1991blizzard]

OH dear!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Sunday 5 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected to remain close to normal throughout the period but may fall a little below across Scotland and Northern Ireland as we head towards February. The risk of overnight frosts will therefore continue in many areas. Rainfall amounts may be slightly below average at first across England and Wales but most of the UK will see a return to normal rainfall by the end of January. Amounts of sunshine should be fairly usual for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1139 on Sat 7 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 23 Jan 2012 to Monday 6 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected to remain close to normal throughout the period but may fall a little below across Scotland and Northern Ireland as we head towards February. The risk of overnight frosts will therefore continue in many areas. Fairly settled conditions are likely at first, leading to slightly below average rainfall amounts across England and Wales but most of the UK will see a return to normal rainfall by the end of January as further unsettled periods return. Amounts of sunshine should be fairly usual for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1141 on Sun 8 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected to remain around normal for the time of year throughout the period, although there are likely to be some colder spells as we head towards February. The risk of overnight frosts will therefore continue in many areas. The most settled conditions are likely across the southeast of the UK at first, whilst northwestern areas will probably be more unsettled. However, the generally unsettled weather will probably spread southeastwards to affect other areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be fairly usual for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1151 on Mon 9 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office have provided us with a late afternoon update for the 16 to 30 day outlook

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected initially to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a risk of some colder conditions setting in as we head into February. The most settled conditions are likely across the southeast of the UK at first, whilst northwestern areas will probably be more unsettled. However, the generally unsettled weather will probably spread southeastwards to affect other areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be close to normal for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1550 on Mon 9 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don]

Hmm an interesting but understandably cautious update there. Certainly better than their recent further outlooks. Interesting also that they updated it this afternoon!

Edited January 9, 2012 by Don

[johnholmes]

Hmm an interesting but understandably cautious update there. Certainly better than their recent further outlooks. Interesting also that they updated it this afternoon!

the routine time after considering the latest ECMWF T+32 days or whatever along with their own anaalysis of all their available data.

[feb1991blizzard]

the routine time after considering the latest ECMWF T+32 days or whatever along with their own anaalysis of all their available data.

But they updated it twice today although it doesnt sound that different to what they initially said so i am not sure why, its usually done by 1 oclock regardless of whether there is an ECM 32 dayer run or not that day.

[johnholmes]

But they updated it twice today although it doesnt sound that different to what they initially said so i am not sure why, its usually done by 1 oclock regardless of whether there is an ECM 32 dayer run or not that day.

yes I see what you mean, I had not seent the second edition; as to why=pass?

[feb1991blizzard]

yes I see what you mean, I had not seent the second edition; as to why=pass?

My guess normally would be exceptional circumstances like uncertainty and changes, which there have been but they were already included in the midday update so as per you. PASS

[johnholmes]

The original output

although there are likely to be some colder spells as we head towards February.

The amended area for the same period really

although there is a risk of some colder conditions setting in as we head into February

They appear to have had second thoughts?

The word likely is now risk

Some colder spells is now some colder conditions setting in

As an ex forecaster with them, they seem to have backed off in terms of expectancy

Likely is more definite than risk to me

But with regard to the actual weather thn

Some colder consitions seems less marked than some colder conditions setting in

So you takes your pick and wait for their update tomorrow to see how they phrase it.

Of course without the benefit of seeing the pressure anomaly charts and to a lesser extent those for temperature any of us are peering into the dark really.

sorry about the spaces and dark print-something to do with how the Met O type set is done

Edited January 9, 2012 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

The original output

although there are likely to be some colder spells as we head towards February.

The amended area for the same period really

although there is a risk of some colder conditions setting in as we head into February

They appear to have had second thoughts?

The word likely is now risk

Some colder spells is now some colder conditions setting in

As an ex forecaster with them, they seem to have backed off in terms of expectancy

Likely is more definite than risk to me

But with regard to the actual weather thn

Some colder consitions seems less marked than some colder conditions setting in

So you takes your pick and wait for their update tomorrow to see how they phrase it.

Of course without the benefit of seeing the pressure anomaly charts and to a lesser extent those for temperature any of us are peering into the dark really.

sorry about the spaces and dark print-something to do with how the Met O type set is done

Cheers for that John, i knew it was only a little change with the wording, i follow this update religiously during winter, actually what only seems like a tiny change is a bit of a downgrade but hopefully the signals for change are there but they want to make sure as im sure they would not want to have to completely change their forecast again if they have already changed it, i personally like it when they mention different possibilities and i wouldnt mind seeing them give % chances of certain weather types verifying at that range, from what i gather, the public dont like this and thats why they dont generally do it, but nothing is set in stone at 30 day range so i wouldnt have a problem with it.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 8 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected initially to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a risk of colder conditions setting in as we head into February. The most settled conditions are likely across the southern areas of the UK at first, whilst northern areas will probably be more unsettled. However, the generally unsettled weather will probably spread southwards to affect other areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be close to normal for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1207 on Tue 10 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 26 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected initially to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a risk of colder conditions setting in as we head into February. It is likely to remain generally unsettled across the UK, with further showers or longer spells of rain. The best chance of settled weather is likely to be across southern and especially southeastern parts. Amounts of sunshine should be close to normal for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 11 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 27 Jan 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected initially to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a risk of colder conditions setting in as we head into February. It is likely to remain generally unsettled across the UK, with further showers or longer spells of rain. The best chance of settled weather is likely to be across southern and especially southeastern parts. Amounts of sunshine should be close to normal for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

Updated: 1141 on Thu 12 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 28 Jan 2012 to Saturday 11 Feb 2012:

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through the end of January and into February. Temperatures generally slightly below average for the time of year at first, with a risk of overnight frosts in clearer periods. Some spells of rain or showers too, perhaps turning to snow, mainly in the north and over high ground. Into the start the new month, temperatures are likely to become around average with periods of rain and above average cloud amounts in places. Across the northwest temperatures may remain a little colder than average, with more in the way of dry spells.

Updated: 1215 on Fri 13 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html