Convective Outlook

[Jane Louise]

Im extremely surprised as i looked at the ATD detector and thought Jane Louise has had one of the first storms of the year!

Lol, so near,yet so far away. A couple of the others on here from Glos got a rumble or two. I just don't understand how they always go around me grrrr lol Maybe I will have a chance in the Summer.

[Costa Del Fal]

You have a good chance again tomorrow. Best of luck.

[Wynn D Woo]

Lol, so near,yet so far away. A couple of the others on here from Glos got a rumble or two. I just don't understand how they always go around me grrrr lol Maybe I will have a chance in the Summer.

Missed us too, looked promising and we did have a short burst of small hail stones, but alas no storm nor even distant thunder.

[Costa Del Fal]

Potential for thunderstorms across a widespread area tomorrow with many places looking to catch heavy, active showers as well as some thunderstorms. GFS' distribution of instability has changed considerably with each run due to the positioning of the Low over the U.K, so still expect there to be slight changes here and there.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be slow-moving in nature, given slack wind flow over the country. Shear is non-existent so doesn't look be any organisation with the storms. However, quite a few convergence zones across the country could enhance the tornado risk within any stronger cells.

GFS 18z is excellent. The Midlands could be a real hotspot for any storms tomorrow.

[dave48]

As ever, showers and storms will be 'hit and miss' so wouldn't be so sure of catching one. Though, if you do experience a heavy shower or thunderstorm then, given their slow-moving nature, are likely to drop a lot of precip in a short space of time. Also, given steep lape rates, hail will accompany the more potent showers and storms.

Certainly an interesting outlook, if only for the fact that a much more widespread area is at risk.

Yeah, tomorrow looks good, will be interested to see where gets the best stuff.

[Costa Del Fal]

As ever, showers and storms will be 'hit and miss' so wouldn't be so sure of catching one. Though, if you do experience a heavy shower or thunderstorm then, given their slow-moving nature, are likely to drop a lot of precip in a short space of time. Also, given steep lape rates, hail will accompany the more potent showers and storms.

Certainly an interesting outlook, if only for the fact that a much more widespread area is at risk.

Yeah it is a very hit and miss situation however i think the majority of people will at least see a shower.

[Harry]

Line of showers organising and moving NE, currently across C S England, hopefully in my direction (seems that way!). Nothing electrical by the looks of things, though as its organising, you can never rule out a flash or two :lol:

Tomorrow not looking good for the SE I have to say - as has been said though, the charts are changing all of the time, though the closer it gets I tend to prefer greens and yellows on the CAPE/LI charts as opposed to blues still, the SE corner tends not to feature too much on the CAPE charts, yet we end up seeing either full action or some stunning Cbs in the distance.

Could be a good day (fingers crossed) for playing with my camera some more

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

When is TV burp back on, Harry?

Looks like there a few heavy showers around, nothing too interesting though.

[Harry]

When is TV burp back on, Harry?

Looks like there a few heavy showers around, nothing too interesting though.

Autumn by all accounts

[MAF]

some heavy showers in the London area this morning. left home about 0530 and it was clear. got to work 0630 and sky was very dark and very heavy rain. i see there is a good chance of some thunder/lightning along the south coast later today

[biddie]

was out late last night very heavy showers and i swear i saw a few flickers of lightning

[Nick F]

Storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Some lively showers moving into the SW currently, sferics between Cornwall and Brest Penninsula. Heavy showers look likely to develop inland across many areas of England and Wales in steep lapse rate environment as the sun gets to work. Should be some good skyscapes today.

[staplehurst]

Just had a potent hail shower - welcome to April!

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting Estofex forecast. Here is within the main lightning risk zone so lets hope today produces like yesterday evenings cloudscapes!

[Coast]

Nice lightning in the F1 qualifying anyway!!!

Just a quick round up from me:

[Dorset_Weather]

Cheers coast, all info very welcome.

Anyone else out chasing today? I'm still trying to decide where to head and holding tight at the moment

Kev.

Edited April 3, 2010 by hazard

[MP-R]

Just grey and cloudy here this morning, possibly the outspill of what's to the south which looks really quite interesting. Let's wait and see.

[Costa Del Fal]

Would of thought some showers would have developed by now in this part of the world. Hope this doesnt turn out to be a non event today!

[Harry]

Laura Tobin mentioned just now that the worst of the showers will be across southern counties (didnt overly mention the midlands or northern areas surprisingly) with an increasing risk of some very heavy and potentially thundery rain moving out of France across the SE over night (LP wrap around).

If that does happen, Estofex has a level 1 across N France for some torrential rain/thunderstorms so later on this evening and overnight could be interesting.

[Costa Del Fal]

A few light showers have popped up around Worcs/Warks now.

[Lynxus]

Estofex have got a better outlook for today than yesterday.

...southern UK...

with winds dropping to very low speeds north of the low pressure center, and persistent convergence and relatively high values of 0-3 km CAPE, the situation may be favorable for an isolated spout-type tornado or funnels.

Had some VERY heavy hailstorms yesterday. So maybe today will be even better

[Costa Del Fal]

I think the best chance of something interesting here will be just like yesterday with heavy showers late afternoon/early evening.

[SteveB]

Just had a heavy downpour for the last 40-50mins or so.

[Rob]

nice cell developed on the Northern tip of France i see, should intensifty nicely across the channel.

[Costa Del Fal]

The cloud from the SW has killed convection here now. With it going no where fast, i dont really expect anything now today.