Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano

[john w]

Without going in to it too much it woulod be very very difficult for a commercial airline to achieve it in the UK under VFR and in anycase uncontrolled airspace and I think it is also against ICAO rules to even try.

[kold weather]

Tremors really increasing now again, I think we are getting close to another eruption phase, I think another 12-24hrs and we will see this thing blow another big plume into the air just in time for the upper winds to thrust it all SE towards Europe again...

[Snowcheeks]

What do you think about what the webcams are showing Val Cam looks calmer than yesterday (when you can see it through the clouds).

Not sure and HVO Cam - hoping that cloud and not another plume - original sire looks calmer.

Ahhhhh looks more like cloud now with the sun on in. It looked ominously dark and dense before

[Tom D]

With the increased tremors but lack of plume, I'd say something was building beneath the volcano and agree with kold, could be the largest eruption yet soon.

[The PIT]

Yeh whats happening?? Very little activity at the volcano but plenty of tremors going on.

Should be plenty of trouble today over air travel and I expect money to win over safety.

[Coast]

Should be plenty of trouble today over air travel and I expect money to win over safety.

We'll see what NATS have to sat at 9.00:

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Monday April 19, 0300

Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the current restrictions across UK controlled airspace due to the volcanic ash cloud will remain in place until at least 1900 (local) on Monday 19 April.

Anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport.

Conditions around the movement of the layers of the volcanic ash cloud over the UK remain dynamic. NATS is maintaining close dialogue with the Met Office and with the UK's safety regulator, the CAA, in respect of the international civil aviation policy we follow in applying restrictions to use of airspace. We are currently awaiting CAA guidance.

We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions.

The next update will be issued at approximately 0900 (local).

BA test flight encountered no probs

A British Airways Boeing 747 has tonight completed a 2 hour 46 minute flight. The aircraft took off from Heathrow at 17.55 and climbed to 40000 feet flying 550 miles due west of Cardiff.

Initially it ascended to 10000 feet, then increased altitude in stages of 5000 feet, remaining for five minutes at each level before reaching 40000 feet.

The aircraft stayed at 40000 feet for an hour. Returning east, it descended across Ireland from 19000 to 15000 feet, landing at Cardiff at 20.41.

The conditions were perfect and the aircraft encountered no difficulties. It will now undergo a full technical analysis at British Airways' engineering base at Cardiff.

The aircraft was piloted by Captain Ian Pringle and Captain Stephen Hawkins. Also on board were the company's chief executive, Willie Walsh, the director of flight operations, Stephen Riley, and the general manager of engineering, Robert Crew.

www.travelio.net

The UK's emergency committee Cobra is due to discuss the ash cloud chaos, amid suggestions the Royal Navy could help ferry stranded Britons back home.

Gordon Brown has spoken to the Spanish premier about the feasibility of some Britons being flown into Spain, before a possible journey by sea to the UK.

news.bbc.co.uk

[Guest]

Yeh whats happening?? Very little activity at the volcano but plenty of tremors going on.

Should be plenty of trouble today over air travel and I expect money to win over safety.

You're not being cynical are you Pit? But you're right. Money will win out over common sense. I wouldn't worry about it if I didn't live directly underneath the main flightpath to the US from Europe, probably right in the sweet spot for any problem planes to crash.

[Coast]

Latest obs from MetO stations available here: www.metoffice.gov.uk

Typically:

18 Apr

Gatwick Air Traffic report ash at 5000 FT from LCBR at 0950Z with visibility 9KM in haze

18 Apr

0800 BST — Ash deposits on cars around Exeter.

18 Apr

1130 BST — Humberside ATC reported “a layer of ash at 10000FT observed by parachutists”

Sorry folks, looks like this is going to run and run

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Monday April 19, 0830

Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the current restrictions across UK controlled airspace due to the volcanic ash cloud will remain in place until at least 0100 (local) on Tuesday 20th April.

Anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport.

Conditions around the movement of the layers of the volcanic ash cloud over the UK remain dynamic. NATS is maintaining close dialogue with the Met Office and with the UK's safety regulator, the CAA, in respect of the international civil aviation policy we follow in applying restrictions to use of airspace. We are currently awaiting CAA guidance.

We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions.

The next update will be issued at approximately 1500 (local) today.

www.nats.co.uk

[LadyPakal]

Another seismometer of interest - the bottom one is close to Hekla.

http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/tremoren.htm

p.s. snowing here today... :lol:

Edited April 19, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Cookie]

yet we still havent had any ash here, yet exter has, very strange

[Coast]

IATA (he International Air Transport Association) statement this morning:

Date: 19 April 2010

Re-Think of Volcano Measures - Governments Must Base Decisions on Fact Not Theory

Paris - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) sharply criticized European governments for their lack of leadership in handling airspace restrictions in light of the Icelandic volcano eruption and urged a re-think of the decision-making process.

“We are far enough into this crisis to express our dissatisfaction on how governments have managed it-with no risk assessment, no consultation, no coordination, and no leadership. This crisis is costing airlines at least $200 million a day in lost revenues and the European economy is suffering billions of dollars in lost business. In the face of such dire economic consequences, it is incredible that Europe’s transport ministers have taken five days to organize a teleconference,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

“Governments must place greater urgency and focus on how and when we can safely re-open Europe’s skies. This means decisions based on risk-management, facts and utilizing operational procedures that maintain safety,” said Bisignani.

IATA criticized Europe’s unique methodology of closing airspace based on theoretical modeling of the ash cloud. “This means that governments have not taken their responsibility to make clear decisions based on facts. Instead, it has been the air navigation service providers who announced that they would not provide service. And these decisions have been taken without adequately consulting the airlines. This is not an acceptable system particularly when the consequences for safety and the economy are so large,” said Bisignani.

“Safety is our top priority. Airlines will not fly if it is not safe. I have consulted our member airlines that normally operate in the affected airspace. They report missed opportunities to fly safely. The European system results in blanket closures of airspace. I challenge governments to agree on ways to flexibly re-open airspace. Risk assessments should be able to help us re-open certain corridors, if not entire airspaces,” said Bisignani.

To assist governments in assessing risk, airlines have conducted successful test flights in several European countries. The results have not shown any irregularities or safety issues. Airlines are also exploring various operational measures to maintain safe operations. These include day flights, restrictions to specific flight corridors, special climb and descent procedures, and more frequent detailed boroscopic engine inspections to detect damage.

The scale of airspace closures currently seen in Europe is unprecedented. “We have seen volcanic activity in many parts of the world but rarely has it resulted in airspace closures—and never at this scale. When Mount St. Helens erupted in the US in 1980, we did not see large scale disruptions, because the decisions to open or close airspace were risk managed with no compromise on safety,” said Bisignani, who urged Eurocontrol to establish a volcano contingency centre capable of making coordinated decisions.

Bisignani called for an urgent meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the specialized agency of the UN, to define government responsibility for the decisions to open or close airspace in a coordinated and effective way based on real data and special operating procedures.

www.iata.org

Remarks of Giovanni Bisignani, Director General of IATA, at the Press Breakfast in Paris here: www.iata.org

[dogs32]

does any one have any info about New York and the ash..??

[TEITS]

Have to say im rather alarmed at what i've just read.

Apparently the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull has been classed a VEI-1. Now Katla has the potential of being a VEI-5 and according to what I have just read everytime Eyjafjallajökull erupts Katla follows with an eruption!!

Also if this eruption continues for several months this could cause a cooling with temps dropping 0.5C. This cooling could last upto 3 yrs. Lets hope Katla doesn't erupt because this could cause an even greater drop in temp!

[dogs32]

I could be wrong but we have a milky haze here? is this the ash?

Saw a strange moon last night which was Orange in colour and wasnt low down from the horizon

Edited April 19, 2010 by dogs32

[Beverley Lass]

Mail Online

Some questions and answers and a few

fab pics, including a lightening one.

BL. :lol:

[dogs32]

there are people in need of emergency medical supplies also.

I have heard of a small girl who will die if she doesnt get her doner for a organ from Canada

cant remember the exact details

Edited April 19, 2010 by dogs32

[Coast]

Three Royal Navy ships will be drafted to help return Britons stranded abroad as UK airspace remains restricted.

The move was announced after the UK's emergency committee Cobra met to discuss options in addressing travel chaos caused by a volcanic ash cloud. The ships HMS Ark Royal, HMS Ocean and HMS Albion are heading for Spain and unspecified Channel ports.

On Monday morning, flight restrictions were extended by air traffic control service Nats to 0100 BST Tuesday.

Travel agents' association Abta said its "rough estimate" was that 150,000 Britons are currently stranded abroad, and rail and ferry services have been stretched to the limit by passengers seeking other means to return.

Following the Cobra meeting, the prime minister said he had held discussions with Spanish premier Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero about using Madrid as a hub to help stranded British travellers return to the UK.

He added that the Navy ships would soon be deployed for the effort. "I expect Ocean to be in the Channel today. I expect the Ark Royal to moving towards the Channel later," he said.

HMS Albion was deployed to Spain to return members of the 3 Rifles regiment to the UK, as they remain stranded on their way back from Afghanistan.

news.bbc.co.uk

I'm afraid this looks like it means that air travel is going to be distributed for some time. Do you think they might stop off in the States for you Dogs?!!!

[dogs32]

news.bbc.co.uk

I'm afraid this looks like it means that air travel is going to be distributed for some time. Do you think they might stop off in the States for you Dogs?!!!

I dont know what to believe anymore Coast....

I have heard New York and Eastern USA will have the ASH at some point today...

the ASH also to reach Korea today

Edited April 19, 2010 by dogs32

[nick sussex]

Looking at the latest models there is hope now for an improvement towards the end of the week with low pressure moving ne and driving a sw flow into Europe, at the same time a strengthening ne flow developing in the mid Atlantic with high still evident near Greenland, sum total the ash will be heading towards the Eastern Seaboard of the USA and Canada. Just how much ash makes it across there difficult to say. I'm surprised the Met Office haven't at least signalled some better news to the media as the computer models are in good agreement for this, maybe they have and the media just want to stick with just the bad news!

Personally I think the government have been very slow to act considering that the computer models were all in agreement for the pattern continuing to draw the ash into Europe well into this week.

[dogs32]

IATA attacks 'inadequate' European reponse to volcanic ash cloud travel ban

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said European governments' response to the volcano crisis was inadequate and estimated its economic impact to be greater than the 2001 September 11 attacks.

Yes I agree with Nick....cant believe they have taken this long to react.

I would be surprise if they win the election now!!

[john w]

There may be clearence of Ash, note a live press conference from the commission right now.

Again as I reiterated, I am not sure that restrictions will be lifted by these test flights. Imagine the calls for corporate manslaughter if a plane were to suffer at the demise of ash.

Still a pleasent few days off for me, Im glad im not at work while this is going on.

WRT Katla I have a friend who did a Phd on Eyjajallajoefokul and relationships with Katla and She didnt seem too convinced this time that Katla would go up as the seismic activity is not intense enough. Considered that activity may be basaltic magma now moving as a result of pressure changes from glacial melt...or even could be glacial tremors rather than earth tremors.....so just another match in the mix.

[Crimson_Sprite]

It looks like potentially some new plumes starting to go up now on camera Valahnuk!

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

WRT Katla I have a friend who did a Phd on Eyjajallajoefokul and relationships with Katla and She didnt seem too convinced this time that Katla would go up as the seismic activity is not intense enough.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

Thanks. To be fair you don't need a PhD to observe the lack of earthquakes around Katla - i.e. the myrdalsjokull glacier.

Considered that activity may be basaltic magma now moving as a result of pressure changes from glacial melt...or even could be glacial tremors rather than earth tremors.....so just another match in the mix.

It all seems to over, at least for now.

[LadyPakal]

Comment 380 from: http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/04/airlines_lobby_to_reopen_europ.php#comments

'It seems to be nearly official now that the eruption has entered into a fully magmatic, predominantly effusive phase (www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/frodleikur/greinar//nr/1863). That would explain the persistent glow seen during the night and the diminished ash production, and the high levels of tremor at the same time. It is likely that lava effusion is accompanied by vigorous Strombolian activity, as can be read from the translation of the IMO report linked above.'

[Coast]

Reuters - The erupting volcano in Iceland sent new tremors on Monday, but the ash plume which has caused air traffic chaos across Europe has dropped to a height of about 2 km (1.2 miles), the Meteorological Office said.

Ash production had fallen and Iceland's coast guard and scientists prepared to fly over the volcano in search of signs its crater was now producing lava, which could indicate the nature of the eruption was changing.

"The situation is definitely better than it was particularly on Saturday, which was a difficult day for us due to heavy ash fall just south of the volcano," said Urdur Gudmundsdottir, a spokeswoman at the foreign ministry.

The appearance of lava could suggest the eruption was moving into a less explosive phase, possibly a good sign for thousands of travelers who have been stranded at airport across Europe for the past five days because countries have closed their airspace over safety fears.

"Lava would be good because then we would not get all this ash, and we know what the ash is doing to the flights," Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson, a geologist at the Meteorological Office, told Reuters.

Visibility near the Eyjafjallajokull glacier was almost nil as falling ash saturated the air and covered agricultural fields with a thin layer of dust which could be dangerous to animals if eaten, local media quoted the police as saying.

There was a risk, however, that molten rock could create new pathways for water to run into the crater, causing more explosions and a higher level of ash production.

The ash plume, which has cost airlines millions of dollars per day in lost revenue, had descended to a lower altitude as strong winds continued to push the cloud southward, he said.

"The ash plume is very low. It's not much higher than 2 kilometers," Sveinbjornsson said.

The column of ash rising from the volcano was as high as 11 km when it started erupting earlier last week.

Air traffic over Europe remained severely disrupted on Monday.

www.reuters.com