Convective Outlook

[Noctilucid]

I notice that my local BBC forecast has gone from thundery showers to heavy showers... looks like storms are back on then!

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice looking NAE run this evening. Suggesting the potential for heavy showers, perhaps isolated thunderstorms to break out much further west than the main risk area. Though I'm not paticularly optimistic of the chance of thunderstorms across parts of the west Midlands, during late Saturday and into a good part of Sunday there is, I think, slight potential for thunderstorms to develop over eastern counties of the west Midlands. Risk rather low but wouldn't be surprised if storms did occur around these parts.

On the whole, main risk remains over eastern and south-eastern parts, though still some time to go before details are firmed up regarding chances for thunderstorms elsewhere.

Yes its not too bad a Run. NAE shows some possible heavy showers in Central areas on Sunday daytime too. Very sketchy still tbh. A bit further West overall and things could be good, bit further East, game over!

Edited June 4, 2010 by Blizzards

[kold weather]

NAE is even further east this run, its getting close to the point where we want it get shuffed as far east as possible so it doesn't limit the east too much with its leftover cloud cover.

[NorthantsSnow]

Might see some activity here. Hard to tell.

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM Model going for late afternoon/evening showers (hopefully storms!) here tomorrow night and into the early hours before moving away.

[Neilsouth]

Certainly the potential for an active Sunday across eastern UK. Once thunderstorms have moved north and east across south-eastern and perhaps eastern counties during early morning, potential for 'homegrown' thunderstorms increases throughout the day with warm, moist air still in place creating a few 100j/kg SBCAPE.

May be a brief period late tomorrow evening into early hours Sunday for heavy showers or thunderstorms to break out over western Midlands, but overall risk looks low. NAE should provide more detail.

That's only if previous storms haven't left a mess over us!

[dogs32]

looking very thundey here this morning,I expect this to be an interested day for some..

Home grown storms today I would think for some

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Stuart]

edit Sunday still have ? how far storms going to move north but i may just be in luck for Sunday

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-05 00:00:00

Valid: 2010-06-05 00:00:00 - 2010-06-05 23:59:00

Regions Affected

E/NE Scotland, Yorkshire, E Midlands and SE England (Northern Ireland and the majority of mainland England, Wales & Scotland are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

High pressure "Urs" slowly loses it's grip across the country on Saturday, allowing the destabilising of the very warm and humid airmass.

Scattered, fairly isolated, sharp showers are expected to develop across inland parts during daytime hours as a result of heating and local sea breezes. Thunderstorm risk appears to be greatest across the East Midlands/Wash area with best cloud heights, though a few are likely over NE Scotland given some decent orographic lift. Most of these showers are likely to decay during the late evening hours.

Attention then turns to the Channel area as scattered thunderstorms develop and may affect parts of Kent and East Sussex in particular by the end of the forecast period. Such storms are not likely to be severe and will be elevated. The thunderstorm risk then increases significantly during the rest of the night, but this forecast period does not cover this threat - more information will be provided in the forecast issued on Saturday evening.

http://www.ukasf.co....orecast/id-295/

Edited June 5, 2010 by Stuart

[dogs32]

look forward today even though I probaly wont be lucky with any storms will be nice to watch the radar...

no work today so will be glued to Netweather sferics and looking for any large Vil's forming

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[CaptainHappy]

I woke this morning at 5:30 - god only knows why- and it looked very stormy outside with Ac covering the sky. All seems clear now, however developments on the sat images in the channel to the SW look interesting for later on. Hereshoping for a little light show

[Jane Louise]

look forward today even though I probaly wont be lucky with any storms will be nice to watch the radar...

no work today so will be glued to Netweather sferics and looking for any large Vil's forming

Same here dogs, you never know what could pop up. I've got my web cam all setup just in case lol (wishful thinking)

[dogs32]

Same here dogs, you never know what could pop up. I've got my web cam all setup just in case lol (wishful thinking)

(or maybe a surprise if we are lucky) or our turn today or tomorrow ,either way its going to be a Stormy year for us.....Got it wrong last year but we are now WELL OVER DUE...its around the corner

it cant be dead Every year...

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[CaptainHappy]

Pleanty of Ac Cast on show here on the south coast, with it showing good signs of further development too. temp 20 c atm and feeling pretty humid

[Alex95]

Very thundery-looking this morning with altocumulus floccus and castellanus (I think that's what it's called). It also feels much warmer than yesterday.

I notice BBC breakfast were predicting thunder in the NE tomorrow, but I thought any thunder tomorrow would be restricted to the SE?

[Coast]

So is this the start of the storm season at last?

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 05 Jun 2010 06:00 to Sun 06 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 05 Jun 2010 00:32

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

The weather pattern shows an upper low over the southern Balkan and Turkey filled with an unstable airmass and most dynamics over Turkey, high pressure over central Europe, and a large area of shallow low pressure over the eastern Atlantic. An upper trough approaches western Europe and frontogenesis takes place as low level warm air flows northward and meets cooler air from the ocean. In the warm airmass CAPE develops.

Could be for some (me included) but I'll wait 'till the morning to actually see it!!

[dogs32]

deeper convection building in the far south west Channel,wonder if this is the Thundery area for S/E for tonight..

worth keeping an eye on.

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[CaptainHappy]

deeper convection building in the far south west Channel,wonder if this is the Thundery area for S/E for tonight..

worth keeping an eye on.

Agreed. Also noticed a little line bubbling up in the channel there. Maybe worth keeping an eye on for this afternoon as well

[Supacell]

I am thinking that sea breezes converging with winds off the land may lead to storms developing across parts of Lincolnshire, especially around the Wash area and so I am planning on a storm chase around here later today. There is around 500J/KG of CAPE showing on 00z GFS for this evening in this area so I am hoping it can be utilised. An expert opinion would be helpful though.

Tomorrow's chances are mainly for the SE I feel, although NE areas look favourable for something later on.

[Costa Del Fal]

BBC and Meto charts suggesting showers will form in the Midlands this evening and travel North Eastwards, perhaps heavy. Maybe some home grown storms this evening for some?

[dogs32]

I am thinking that sea breezes converging with winds off the land may lead to storms developing across parts of Lincolnshire, especially around the Wash area and so I am planning on a storm chase around here later today. There is around 500J/KG of CAPE showing on 00z GFS for this evening in this area so I am hoping it can be utilised. An expert opinion would be helpful though.

Tomorrow's chances are mainly for the SE I feel, although NE areas look favourable for something later on.

yes with some high temps expected and some breez will help push some up draughts up Im sure...

Im going with East Leictershire up to Linconshire for today(take this lightly) for any action.....But Im sure some other places might catch something...

Could be anywhere at the end of the day...pot luck!!

who's feeling lucky

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Costa Del Fal]

Midnight snack showers anyone???

[dogs32]

Midnight snack showers anyone??? B)

wow thats interesting...dont wont to be under the storms,nicely on the edge for some chasing and photography....might go out tonight

[Coast]

Not much MLCAPE around first thing tomorrow morning:

Maybe it will start in the early hours?

Dew points look to assist, it's going to be a muggy night! I still think this could be confined to a small corner of the SE near the Channel, which of course is great for me (IMBY!!!)

[Costa Del Fal]

wow thats interesting...dont wont to be under the storms,nicely on the edge for some chasing and photography....might go out tonight

Indeed, it wasnt there much on the run before but all the main charts seem to be agreeing on showers forming this evening and then move into North East England from the Midlands. Whether its Thundery is up to the weather Gods.

[A.J]

Indeed, it wasnt there much on the run before but all the main charts seem to be agreeing on showers forming this evening and then move into North East England from the Midlands. Whether its Thundery is up to the weather Gods.

In other words.....a repeat performance of last night