Convective Outlook

[Mesoscale]

Ill be filming tommorow so if it gets good ill post it on here!

some towering clouds out to my south west or they might just be high clouds but the haze is making it hard to judge! the tops are white and underneath is dark.

Still is in the high 20's and very very humid!

[Costa Del Fal]

Probably breaking out the storms due to the sheer level of heat occuring, will probably somewhat break the cap upto a certain point as has happened today, the Beeb show it further SE. Indeed it has everything further SE with the NAE having the MCS only really hitting the SE counties, Kent gets plastered in that evolution.

Still its very much a wait and see type situation.

Would you think any showers in the Midlands would turn to storms? Not sure if your post was on about the SE more. :lol:

Meto Invent does suggest some showers/storms breaking out late evening in the Midlands.

[Tim B]

Ill be filming tommorow so if it gets good ill post it on here!

Same, I'll be sure to post vids of anything that comes along over the next few days!

Heres hoping for many long threads of thunderstorm video this summer.

[Supacell]

There is some decent CAPE around the East Midlands into Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire tomorrow afternoon on the GFS 12z. Hopefully enough to spark a few storms.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Supacell

[Neilsouth]

Probably breaking out the storms due to the sheer level of heat occuring, will probably somewhat break the cap upto a certain point as has happened today, the Beeb show it further SE. Indeed it has everything further SE with the NAE having the MCS only really hitting the SE counties, Kent gets plastered in that evolution.

Still its very much a wait and see type situation.

Sounds good to me! , are we expecting this during early hours?

[Tim B]

Castellanus clouds aplenty here now, good sign.

[Harry]

Castellanus clouds aplenty here now, good sign.

Alex Deakin did say the showers could continue on through the first part of the night, only really dieing away/moving away after midnight, so there is some potential still I'd say for parts of N England in the next few hours, though more odd rumble than full on storm IMO.

For tomorrow it certainly looks like the NE of England is the more favoured spot for any thundery weather, so enjoy if it materialises people. Scotland's showers are unlikely to be thundery though it appears.

With regards the potential MCS, still a little too early to really get a feel of what will happen. MCS' are notorious little sods for several reasons, including the fact they can pretty much shuffle along in any direction they feel fit. I wouldn't dare suggest what could happen with any real conviction - if we remember last year (July was it?), an MCS was forecast to run up in to the SW in the early hours right up until about 6-9 hours before the event, and give'm a pasting - what actually happened was the MCS swerved totally NE, hitting the SE (about 150-200 miles East of the forecast area).

My gut feeling is that should any MCS form, it will shift NNE, may hit my area but more likely E Sussex and C/E Kent. Still, that is purely a feeling which I hope is wrong :lol:

As for the Sunday, anyones guess. If the MCS does form and move across, it could rule out T'storm risk entirely for Sunday as they are notorious for leaving dense and stubborn cloud behind, and really inhibit convection. However, widespread thundery downpours are forecast so I think many people will have a chance - supposed to stay on the humid side too (temps no lower than 18C in the SE tomorrow night)

Edited June 4, 2010 by Harry

[Tim B]

Aye, at the moment it looks like late tonight and early hours tomorrow is the best bet for my area seeing any thundery activity for the time being.

A heavy shower would be nice thundery or not to take some of the pollen etc out of the air, I can see shower to the east of me atm on the extra radar, don't think it will give me anything though.

Edit: Got a few altocumulus and high level cumulus with fall streaks coming off now, heres a pic.

Might need to zoom in a bit to see them.

[Alex95]

The Look North forecast said "A couple of fine days and a thunderstorm - there's your summer". She seemed to be writing off the rest of June, July and August pretty prematurely!

[Tim B]

Thats an old saying so don't read in to it, I remember my sumemrs being like that as a kid but they were mostly hot throughout.

2006 being a more recent example of the saying, at least for my area.

[Alex95]

Thats an old saying so don't read in to it, I remember my sumemrs being like that as a kid but they were mostly hot throughout.

2006 being a more recent example of the saying, at least for my area.

I know, I just find it funny that the presenter would go and say that, some people would take it literally and write off the rest of the summer!

2006 was rubbish for storms here, one in late July which I missed (I was on holiday in Cumbria), and one in September. 2007 and 2009 were better summers storm wise. I think there was a storm or two in August 2006, but I was abroad so I missed them again.

Edited June 4, 2010 by alza

[Tim B]

Aye, they always go saying it anyway :lol:

[Noctilucid]

We should be worried, when the BBC start forecasting storms... they don't happen. :lol:

So as usual in summer the storms are going to be riding along linear features such as a trough or a developing cold front, so those who do find themselves under the main event tomorrow night and Sunday morning will be under it for a while.

Edited June 4, 2010 by jshaw

[Alex95]

It's actually looking quite dark to my southwest now.

[Cheese Rice]

In perfect position for two of the showers, first shower started of overcast and very dark, some moderate rain with big rain drops. Second shower brought a short-lived torrential downpour followed by heavy rain, still raining heavy and lightened up alot so hopefully the end of the showers. No lightning or thunder unfortunately.

[Winter Warmer]

looks dark to my west

[Katherine]

Just a few patches of vague stratocumulus here...

[Cheese Rice]

GREAT NEWS!! Since my last post 44 minutes ago it's been raining continuously, moderate in intensity. Now torrential, really enjoying the current weather....

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Any chance of anything in my neck of the woods tonight?

[liambailey09]

Bit overwhelmed with the amount of discussion in this thread!

So, can anyone give me a simple-ish explanation on what's going to be occurring over the weekend storm wise? Noticed MCS's have been mention, where about' so far are these forecast to pop up?

Sorry if this is an annoying post, i'm knew to this having become interested in storms properly last year and find it difficult to read the data etc. Learning a lot from you guys just by reading the thread, although most of it goes over my head

Cheers.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Bit overwhelmed with the amount of discussion in this thread!

So, can anyone give me a simple-ish explanation on what's going to be occurring over the weekend storm wise? Noticed MCS's have been mention, where about' so far are these forecast to pop up?

Sorry if this is an annoying post, i'm knew to this having become interested in storms properly last year and find it difficult to read the data etc. Learning a lot from you guys just by reading the thread, although most of it goes over my head

Cheers.

Me too mate!

[dogs32]

I think If I lived where Neil or Harry lives I would be very optimistic about Saturday night,camers would be on charge with video's :lol:

like the Low forming down in the Bay of Biscay..

though no fat lady as sung just yet for here...so us Midlander's/Westerner's it aint over just yet

but at this present staGE my monies are on the S/E...

also add the N/E into the equation for Sat

Edited June 4, 2010 by dogs32

[liambailey09]

Me too mate!

[Noctilucid]

Bit overwhelmed with the amount of discussion in this thread!

So, can anyone give me a simple-ish explanation on what's going to be occurring over the weekend storm wise? Noticed MCS's have been mention, where about' so far are these forecast to pop up?

Sorry if this is an annoying post, i'm knew to this having become interested in storms properly last year and find it difficult to read the data etc. Learning a lot from you guys just by reading the thread, although most of it goes over my head

Cheers.

The usual suspects Kent, East Sussex, Surrey, Greater London, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk are most at risk from imports by the looks of things, I'm afraid Stevenage might find things brushing to its East. :lol:

[Neilsouth]

I think If I lived where Neil or Harry lives I would be very optimistic about Saturday night

Oh i am , i am :lol: