Convective Outlook

[Costa Del Fal]

In other words.....a repeat performance of last night

What happened last night other than a couple of light showers in North East England?

[A.J]

What happened last night other than a couple of light showers in North East England?

You obviously didnt watch the radars last night Luke?....Had a torrential downpour around 8pm last night....Low level convergence kicked off a train of heavy showers stretching from Penkridge north eastwards to the Peaks, giving torrential downpours in places....the showers then drifted NE wards into Yorkshire and gradually died out

[Costa Del Fal]

You obviously didnt watch the radars last night Luke?....Had a torrential downpour around 8pm last night....Low level convergence kicked off a train of heavy showers stretching from Penkridge north eastwards to the Peaks, giving torrential downpours in places....the showers then drifted NE wards into Yorkshire and gradually died out

Oh sorry, i know what you mean now, i thought you meant way into the night.

[staplehurst]

This looks increasingly like a Kent clipper to me

[A.J]

Oh sorry, i know what you mean now, i thought you meant way into the night.

lol.....blimey we could've had a supercell overhead in the middle of the night and I wouldnt have noticed...I was that knackered!!

[MP-R]

Too much cloud around here at the moment, ned to get rid of it for some proper convection - and more importantly, some sun!

[Harry]

This looks increasingly like a Kent clipper to me <_<

DITTO! What my gut feeling was telling me yesterday

However, there is still some modular disagreement with exactly where the storms are likely to be - some say straight up over the SE, others (as ever in their infinite wisdom) trying to urge it all East...

Only time will tell on this one unfortunately...

Markedly more humid here today, and much warmer too - whereas the past few days have been crystal clear skies, today's skies have a lot of cirrus clouds and lots of contrails spreading across the sky (moisture aloft ? ). This feels like a 30C day if ever I've experienced one

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 06z increases shower activity across the Midlands and parts of NE England tonight.

Edited June 5, 2010 by Blizzards

[dogs32]

latest from Susan Powell...Possible Supercells will form today or tonight and head towards Wilmington but due to the upper winds these Supercells will become left mover's and splitting and vearing away from Wilmington with a course for Gloucestershire in the early hrs...

by the time they reach Nr Stourbridge, West Midlands there could be some large couplet's...

keep tuned and updated as things could change rapidly throughout the day

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Costa Del Fal]

latest from Susan Powell...Possible Supercells will form today or tonight and head towards Wilmington but due to the upper winds these Supercells will become left mover's and splitting and vearing away from Wilmington with a course for Gloucestershire in the early hrs...

I saw that too. We should do very well. Hehe.

[Supacell]

GFS 06z has thrown me into confusion. Was going for Lincolnshire as my target area but the area of highest CAPE has now slipped south, so the south Midlands and northern Home Counties look more favoured. However, storm risk and precipitation is still in the same place as on the GFS 00z (Lincolnshire). There is a definite conergence line showing also just inland from the east coast. I am thinking I should stick with my original choice.

Tonight looking interesting for showers to develop over the Midlands and spread north into Northern and eventually NE England. Will these be thundery?

The far SE looks to get some action from the MCS that should develop over France later and then hit Kent during the early hours of tomorrow.

Then tomorrow, more thundery showers look likely in a high CAPE environment, especially for southern half of the UK.

In the words of Philip Avery 'theres a lot going on' so I will 'stay tuned to the forecasts'

[Stuart]

I still thinking i going to miss out on sunday just

Great pat but the Big Q will it get to me or will i just going to

Edited June 5, 2010 by Stuart

[Stormyking]

Painfull to know that we are going to miss out by only a couple of miles by the MCS that are pushing up tonight, ah well I hope i see some distant Lightning.

[johnholmes]

brief ideas using skew-t as indicated in pdf below

showers-storms 5-6 june weekend.pdf

[Anvil Crawler]

Dam it so 50/50 for where I am and I'm debating on whether to cancel going out tonight.Decisions decisions lol.at least I got me gear charged lol

[Lynxus]

latest from Susan Powell...Possible Supercells will form today or tonight and head towards Wilmington but due to the upper winds these Supercells will become left mover's and splitting and vearing away from Wilmington with a course for Gloucestershire in the early hrs...

by the time they reach Nr Stourbridge, West Midlands there could be some large couplet's...

keep tuned and updated as things could change rapidly throughout the day

<choke>

Your joking right?

Whos susan powell anyway? ( Ive figured this part out. )

</choke>

Edited June 5, 2010 by Lynxus

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as though some thundery activity brewing and moving NE towards the uk....

[kold weather]

Models have really upgraded the risk for locations further north from the S.Midlands northwards.

The MCS once again turns into a Kent clipper which gives Dover a nice show but just about everyone else is doomed to possibly just seeing lightning as they roll by into the North Sea, for those SE enough though it does look interesting...

However arguably the models have upgraded further north so much the attention actually mainly shifts up there, esp as the plume breaks down over there.

[Stuart]

ok storm risk been downgread here more looking no so good now well it a miss for me now

[Nick F]

I have updated the netweather storm forecast - extending t-storm area across central England now as well as eastern England while confining t-storm box area to the far SE corner for possible storms tonight coming over the Channel:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=a1f0422eb6e07da770d57f13fe19b81a

[MetWX]

Absolutely gutted that the models have placed this over the SE corner.

Everything started off as if it was going to hit the S and drift NE, oh well, another quiet night.

Edited June 5, 2010 by MetWX

[willinkent]

I think people should be looking at radars later on rather than taking precipitation on gfs as gospel..... it looks wrong to me.... and you can only know maybe an hour or two in advance if your going to get a distant lightening show or an overhead thunderstorm.....

[Lynxus]

I have updated the netweather storm forecast - extending t-storm area across central England now as well as eastern England while confining t-storm box area to the far SE corner for possible storms tonight coming over the Channel:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=a1f0422eb6e07da770d57f13fe19b81a

Ty nick,

Well looks like we *may catch a shower later but thats it for here ( glos )

Im off out on the boat, lets hope i dont burn too much tehehehe

[kold weather]

I'm expecting its going to be a close call for me with regards to the MCS, may be a close but not quite type set-up, but hopeful for some lightning if only in the distance.

Anyway closing this thread shortly.

[Wilxy]

Will be a intresting day today for the midlands and SE but im more intrested in whats going to happen later in the midlands and northern england, plus is milky skies here warm and muggy so a real thundery feel here today.