Convective Outlook

[dogs32]

No - It's NOT Allowed :lol: Not until June 12th >>>>> Onwards

Pat you can have some of the 5,500jkg Cape we have today, not a good chance of Tornadoes here but 4" Hail Stones due to all that Cape (Not Nice)

£5 per 500jkg Cape > Special Offer just for today.

Seriously though good luck for the weekend, you guys deserve it after the crap early Spring and I hope you get some great Storms, going to check back over the weekend to see some pics.

Paul S

cheers Paul....

I was just telling Ian.M that I wont even get my camer's out unless the Vil's are high...lol

Though saying that I am now reading this thread and wondering if it will be good enough for the BBC???

Wont do it unless the chances are high..

dont wont to be clutching at straws unless the chances are extremely high here.

would love some decent CAPE...£5.00 to expensive need the money for the 4yr cycle tornado outbreak :lol:

edit

message to Paul...will leave it this time...Only 50% chance...wait untill a more definate time than egg on my face

Edited June 4, 2010 by dogs32

[kold weather]

The NNM a touch further west then the raw UKMO output which makes sense, I think its a big middle ground, a big MCS system coming up from the Channel regions which is helped by the strengthening low pressure complex over the Channel.

Exact location of the low pressure development very much will be key with what will develop. I'll have a better look at this event after the 12z runs have come out.

[Hathers]

Looking very dark towards Shrewsbury at the moment. Does anybody think that shropshire could be hit by a thunderstorm tomorrow evening?? Its just i dont wanna get my hopes only to be disappointed again.

Thanks guys

[Mesoscale]

haha paul you couldnt sneak us some cape in your luggage on your way back could you?

its looking a bit thundery here right now but not expecting anything today its hazy with some bubbling cumulus clouds!

Now your local on the 8s: 'starts the jazz'

Currently in your area 27.5C under light clouds

heres your local doppler radar! haha

[Stormyking]

Theres an interesting looking cell by Liverpool area by the look of it

[MR CB]

Looks like some interesting cells have developed over North Wales and are developing/drifting to the Manchester and Wigan areas...

I'm looking forward to tommorrow evening for the South Coast - by then we should have some idea of what to expect. First proper summer thunderstorms this season?

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting 12z GFS output, seems things may develop a little more early than first thought- would suggest precipitation breaking out during late Saturday evening and on into Sunday across the Midlands. Would think there is potential for thunderstorms to develop across the Midlands during this period before warm, moist air shifts moves eastward. Other than that, not much change- thunderstorms will push north and east towards the south-east and progress further north across eastern England during early morning Sunday.

Where can you see the 12z? There are still big problems at NOAA and on Wetterzentrale i can see the first 3 charts and thats it for the GFS 12Z???

Edited June 4, 2010 by Blizzards

[Tim B]

Hmmm, some big towering cumulus clouds knocking around my area now with a steady temperature of 23c, I'm not gettng my hopes up but I wouldn't be surprised to see a heavy shower or more as the evening progresses.

I need to check out the charts.

[Stormyking]

12z shows it just missing me , ah well fingers crossed to see what actually happens I am still keeping positive

[kold weather]

A subtle but important change on the 12z NAE and one that maks increasing difference further north. This run has a more ENE slant to the MCS system as it comes up from the south. This means the system is located further SE then on the 06z run and also means the system probably won't get as far north before ejecting into the north sea...

[The PIT]

Looks like some cells are going up over Northern Wales. Otherwise it's looking for us that it will be a weekend that i won't be making any notes about bar the temps and err lack of rain again.

[Casper]

There seems to be a line of developing convection between Liverpool down to mid south Wales.Developing cells are moving NNE?

[Costa Del Fal]

Thanks weather09, i see now.

However i have little optimism for this event as tbh i cant see it happening now but you never know in these set ups so i remain neutral for now!

[Alex95]

Those showers are heading towards me, but unfortunately they'll probably have fizzled out by the time they get here overnight. Having said that, BBC forecasts are going for showers overnight, and it feels much more thundery (ie warmer and hazier) than it did just a few hours ago. Hopefully I'll at least get to see a heavy downpour tomorrow afternoon, but it is a case of wait and see; the showers in North Wales developed quite quickly.

[Mesoscale]

wyclef hunny im sweating like a P.I.G!

a very humid 27C here!

those cells looking good over wales i hope some people get a nice drenching in the nicest possible way of course!

[Lynxus]

Doubt anything will bubble up now.

Those cells have stopped growing and the convective cloud seems to be breaking down.

[Katherine]

What is the storm potential for south Lincs?

[UKVoodoo]

Not too fussed about storms but what about rain for my area im off golfing tonight ha ha

[Stuart]

I dont think i going to see any storms here for sunday now

[dogs32]

There is a Anvil to my South of Glos towards the Cotsworld's..

Though it is very ragged or rough around the edges..

Doesnt look crisp like potent TS..So maybe tomorrow better chances

[Alex95]

Some mid-level cloud has covered the sun now, and there is a reasonable amount of altocumulus floccus quite high up which wasn't there earlier on. Also, it has been a breezy day, but the breeze has dropped completely so it feels much warmer now.

The latest BBC forecast on their website looks reasonably good; Alex Deakin is forecasting thunderstorms in NE England tomorrow with showers in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and more widespread thundery downpours on Sunday. The Southeast looks best at the moment though, but I wouldn't like to rule out some surprises.

Edited June 4, 2010 by alza

[Costa Del Fal]

Well the GFS and NMM predict some showers breaking out over the Midlands tomorrow afternoon but tbh i cant see much happening, especially anything thundery.

[Tim B]

I really wouldn't mind a good cloudburst right now, so hooooot! Doesn't help that the ceiling downstairs was replastered yesterday as its making the place feel so much more stuffy with it drying out.

A lot of the towering cumulus from a few hours ago have melted away now but some nice altocumulus formations have taken their place.

[Supacell]

Just had a brief but heavy shower here. Sun out again now. I am hoping the pollen can reduce over the next couple of days with some rain forecasted, I have been suffering today.

I am thinking of chasing later tomorrow (my first of the year), although the south-east is a little far to travel if I want to track the impending MCS. Hoping for something a little closer to home.

[kold weather]

Well the GFS and NMM predict some showers breaking out over the Midlands tomorrow afternoon but tbh i cant see much happening, especially anything thundery.

Probably breaking out the storms due to the sheer level of heat occuring, will probably somewhat break the cap upto a certain point as has happened today, the Beeb show it further SE. Indeed it has everything further SE with the NAE having the MCS only really hitting the SE counties, Kent gets plastered in that evolution.

Still its very much a wait and see type situation.